Friday’s 11-game whopper of a slate includes a handful of games totaled in the 220s, and a high-octane matchup between the Nets and Spurs that is at 232.5 on the afternoon board in Las Vegas. That game has several feature stars who will be highly owned and seem likely to be major inflection points on today’s slate. The final game of the night between the Rockets and Warriors seems like another prime target for NBA DFS scoring, leaving room to make swaps into and out of positions in the back end of the night is going to be key this evening. Getting to the wide range of value plays created by continued absences and misprices around the league makes it easy to roster several stars in one lineup, although there are viable mid-range builds that project competitively with some of the stars and scrubs roster construction for NBA DFS lineups tonight.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With 11 games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
LaMelo Ball: DraftKings — $8,600 — PG/SG | FanDuel –$8,100 — PG
On a slate with a wide range of the NBA’s star players in action, several of them naturally land at lower prices than they typically may be found on smaller slates. One such option is Hornets star LaMelo Ball, who is inexpensive at his DraftKings price, and downright cheap on the FanDuel slate. Ball is a standout option with whom anyone who has followed the league over the last year is familiar. He is putting up fantasy points at a 1.33 per-minute rate across all situations so far this season and he has a 31.9 minute per game average. Ball consumes 26.8% of the team’s usage and he has an excellent 34.6% assist percentage with a 10.7% rebounding rate. In 32 minutes in the team’s most recent game Ball posted a respectable, but not great, 37 FanDuel points. At his low prices, Ball is an interesting piece for roster construction on both sites tonight. The public does not appear to be overly excited about including him in lineups, which gives him additional upside beyond his probability marks.
On DraftKings, Ball is the fifth-most frequently optimal player at any position. He slots in at both guard spots for just $8,600, which helps him reach the top lineup in 14.2% of Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings slates. That such a low rate is the fifth from the top of the board reveals the nature of today’s evenly distributed slate. Ball gains ground on plays in a similar territory by virtue of his strong leverage score, which stands a 2.9. He will be under-owned by the field as things currently stand. Ball is projected for a 43.7-point median DraftKings score and he has a 29.5% boom score probability that ranks 12th overall but the field is projected for just 11.3% ownership. By boom score, Ball is outpaced by Dejounte Murray, Cole Anthony, Will Barton, Mike Conley and Ja Morant on this slate, but only he and Murray come with positive leverage.
Ball’s ownership is highly efficient on the FanDuel slate. He is an $8,100 option at only the point guard position on the slate, but that low price has him landing in the optimal lineup in 17.3% of simulated slates, exactly matching the ownership for which Awesemo has him projected and landing him at a 0.0 leverage score. Ball’s low price delivers an excellent 32% boom score probability against his 41.9-point median projection on the slate. That mark lands eighth overall, there is a plateau of 12-13 players between 30 and 40% who look similar in the category at a range of positions. Getting to a broad spread of differentiated lineup combinations is critical when so many options come up similarly, Ball should be a major piece in the point guard rotation on the blue site tonight.
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Jayson Tatum: DraftKings — $9,700 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $9,400 — SF/PF
On a day with a significant plateau of quality, it makes sense to look at under-owned players from the star tier. Getting to an option who can post a 60-point fantasy score on any given slate, while also coming in at less than 10% ownership, has major appeal on a slate such as this one. With that in mind, Celtics star forward Jayson Tatum looks like an interesting piece from a few spaces down the board. Tatum is priced in his typical range, and he has multi-position eligibility between the forward positions on both sites, but the public is not getting to him frequently enough based on probability numbers. He has put up 1.18 fantasy points per minute on a huge 31.3% usage rate so far this season, down from the 1.23 he posted on a lower 29.8% usage rate last year. Tatum has been at just 0.98 per minute over the team’s three most recent games, but that could be part of the reason his ownership marks are low on this slate, which is advantageous. In the Celtics most recent game, Tatum posted just 23.7 FanDuel points in 35 minutes, one of his lowest fantasy outputs of the season. He should be expected to exceed that mark by a wide margin on this slate.
On FanDuel, Tatum is projected for a 42.5-point median fantasy score and he lands in the optimal lineup in 10.1% of simulated slates. That rate pushes him down the overall rankings. He is just the 33rd most frequently optimal player on the slate, but when we consider that 12th ranked Cole Anthony is at just 15.8% the relative position is revealed. Tatum is carrying a 16.9% boom score probability despite the relatively high price, and he comes at one of the slate’s stronger leverage scores. Tatum lands third on the board at any position with a 5.8 leverage score, technically tying with Hamidou Diallo of the Pistons, who looks like a strong option at either shooting guard or small forward. Tatum can be rostered in tandem with Diallo, Ball and the next featured player to create an interesting base of a lineup that is both optimal frequently enough and fairly differentiated by leverage score.
On the DraftKings slate, Tatum comes in at a $9,700 price tag at either forward position. He has just an 8.0% optimal lineup appearance rate at that price, but he still comes with a 19.4% boom score probability and a 44.9-point median projection on the slate. There is appeal in the likelihood of a ceiling score from a player like Tatum on this slate. He is a good bet for an investment of salary savings from other likely plays, and he comes with just a 1.9% public popularity projection. That leaves the Celtics star at a 6.1 leverage score that ranks third among all players on the DraftKings slate. Tatum falls in behind only PJ Washington and Danilo Gallinari, who land at 6.9 and 6.7 respectively, but the Celtics forward ranks ahead of both options by optimal lineup rate and boom score probability, and his median fantasy points projection is more than their combined score.
Ja Morant: DraftKings — $9,300 — PG | FanDuel — $9,100 — PG
The most frequently optimal player on both sites comes from the top shelf as well. Memphis point guard star Ja Morant leads the way across the industry, with numerous teammates on the shelf. Morant is projected for a 36.7-minute night, which should give him plenty of time to provide a significant fantasy score at 1.35 fantasy points per minute. Over the team’s three most recent games, Morant has been at a 1.30 mark, but he posted a huge 62.6-point FanDuel performance in 39 minutes in the team’s most recent outing, and it would be easy to see him cresting that point once again in both playing time and fantasy output. The star point guard has a 33.8% assist percentage to go with his 57.2% true shooting percentage on the season, and he can seemingly score points at will displaying a dazzling array of moves in his 30.9% usage. Morant is a popular option from the top of the board on both sites, he warrants attention and seems like good chalk all the way.
On DraftKings Morant’s public projection is for 30.8% ownership, making him the second-most popular player on the entire slate behind only Utah’s Joe Ingles. Morant comes up in the optimal lineup far more frequently than Ingles, despite landing at roughly 2.25 times the price. Morant is in the top DraftKings lineup in 23.8% of simulated slates, the top mark on the board, while his over-owned friend from the Jazz checks in at just a 12.9% rate. Morant is at a -7.0 leverage score and is easily playable at that rate given his 50.8-point median projection and massive 44.8% boom score probability, there is simply too much appeal in the median score, let alone the ceiling potential that Morant provides. The point guard is well worth the price and the weight of ownership, getting different in other parts of a lineup will be important, but Morant should be included in a great number of DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.
Little changes across town on the blue site, where Morant slots in at just $9,100 as a point guard option. He is the most frequently optimal player on the entire FanDuel slate, landing in the top lineup in 26.9% of Awesemo’s simulated contests. The low price has him popping up to a slate-leading 40.5% boom score probability, 1.6 percentage points ahead of Utah center Rudy Gobert and 1.8 ahead of Gobert’s teammate Mike Conley. Morant is at a -4.7 leverage score on the FanDuel slate. He stands slightly closer to the field on the site, but the leverage score is easily playable even in the face of 31.6% raw public ownership. As always, differentiating in other areas will be important when playing a popular option, but it seems far more likely that Morant will be a key to unlocking the top of today’s standings than that he will go bust, even at this level of popularity.
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