NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

The Tuesday NBA DFS slate brings us a small but interesting set of games for our daily fantasy basketball grind. The slate has a few key known factors in the early afternoon and a number of lingering question marks as well. There are already several standout spots for value and upside, with several more likely to emerge as we get toward lock. There are just six games on the slate, and we will look at both top overall plays and strong leverage plays. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Paul George — Los Angeles Clippers

DraftKings — $8,700 — SG | FanDuel — $9,000 — SG

Yes, again. With Kawhi Leonard, Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka all still out tonight for the Clippers, George will be in the spotlight once again. He has seen a major spike in usage, leaping to a 33.8% mark for the season. His fantasy points per minute spike as well, as he has posted a 1.30 mark in 372 minutes played with that trio of teammates off the floor this season. George stands, and the sites have not correctly priced him for this ongoing situation.

On DraftKings, George lands as the second-highest-ranked player on the board, with a 37.4% optimal-lineup rate. He is underpriced for his upside, coming in with a 31.3% boom-score probability that is among the slate leaders and the best among pay-up options. George has a -5.2 leverage score, but there is plenty of reason to push well past the public’s exposure here. He is more of an upside building block than he is someone we want to pass up on a six-game slate.

On the FanDuel side of things, George ranks as the top overall player by optimal-lineup rate. He leads the slate with a 39.7% mark and has a 32.9% boom-score probability. There is significant upside in the player, even at his $9,000 price tag and a -5.1 leverage score. Gamers can push beyond the public’s ownership on George on the blue site as well. He is just in too good a spot to ignore or look to pivot.

Andre Drummond — Los Angeles Lakers

DraftKings — $6,700 — C | FanDuel — $7,000

Drummond is a per-minute fantasy beast whenever he is on the floor. For the season, across all situations, Drummond has posted a 1.43 mark, equaling his number from last year. The prolific rebounder and force in the paint may not be the prototypical modern NBA player, but for daily fantasy basketball purposes, he can still be ideal on the right slate. Drummond stands out at his low pricing, but the best thing about how he looks on today’s board is how far behind the public is on the play given Drummond’s questionable tag. He is dealing with a hurting elbow that may have impacted his production in the team’s matchup with the Knicks. If he plays, the lack of public exposure could provide significant leverage to the field for those that roster him.

On FanDuel Drummond has a 23.9% optimal-lineup rate. That mark ranks him seventh among all players and first by a significant amount among centers. He has a massive 52.6% boom-score probability, making it likely that he smashes through his required ceiling score, but the public is way behind on him. Tripling up the projected seven percent public exposure would not be enough to match Drummond’s optimal-lineup rate, pushing well past that mark seems to be the upside play, given the 16.9 leverage score.

DraftKings priced Drummond lower than the competing site did today, making him pop with a 36.5% optimal-lineup rate, though he is projected for just 13.4% ownership on the slate, giving him a monster 23.1 leverage score that is among the higher marks seen all season. Drummond has a 45.9% boom-score probability to go with his 42.4 DraftKings points projection; he is a major upside and leverage play on this site as well.

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Miles Bridges — Charlotte Hornets

DraftKings — $5,800 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $6,200 — SF

Another player who pops for some value when he finds himself in the right spot or at the right price. Today, perhaps, is both for Miles Bridges. The Hornets are expected to be without Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington, in addition to the long-term injury list that includes Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball. This creates obvious opportunity for Bridges and other players in the Hornets rotation. In the miniscule 43-minute sample for the situation, Bridges has put up 0.88 fantasy points per minute and seen 22% usage, significantly up from his usual 15.3% in all situations.

Bridges is among the slate leaders by optimal-lineup rate on FanDuel. He comes up with a 29.0% mark that leaves him fifth overall on the slate, trailing the third and fourth ranked players by a mere percentage point. Bridges fits into lineups well for a mid-range price that does not account for the situation, he has a quality 26.8% boom-score probability that is suggestive of the upside, and the public is behind on him. Bridges will be owned, but his 25% projected ownership leaves a very playable 4.0 leverage score. Getting to him more than the field seems like the right move. Given the structure of tonight’s slate, gamers can roster Bridges alongside one of the stars at the small forward spot.

On DraftKings, Bridges costs just $5,800 and slots in at both forward spots, giving him value and utility. He lands in the optimal lineup in 25.6% of simulated slates, putting him among the best overall options, though there is a wealth of forward choices today. Bridges has a strong 24.6% boom-score probability and a 3.8 leverage score that says the public is leaving some opportunity despite his 21.8% projected exposure to the field. While not bringing a star-caliber name to lineups, Bridges is a solid option on both sites tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.