NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

One of the final big slates of the NBA DFS regular season has nine games on tap for Thursday night. The league is split between teams who have given up the playoff chase and those still in contention, and there are several very interesting games that should stay competitive on the board, though one stands well above the others in terms of game total. The Bucks – Pacers 243-point total is a full 9 points higher than Vegas’ second-ranked game. Two games are totaled in the 230s, with the Trail Blazers – Suns nightcap standing as the second-highest totaled game at 234. That contest kicks off two hours after all of the other games have locked, complicating any swapping issues to a degree. With nine games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall fantasy basketball picks on the boom/bust tool. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

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This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Domantas Sabonis — Indiana Pacers

DraftKings — $10,700 — PF/C | FanDuel — $10,500 — PF

The Pacers standout power forward is expensive on both sites tonight, but he is showing significant upside and will be playing a major role in the highest-totaled game of the night. Sabonis is projected for 38.7 minutes and he has put up 1.29 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, making him viable already despite the salaries. Since the trade deadline, Sabonis has been averaging 1.42 fantasy points per minute and leading the team with a 27.5% usage rate. The Pacers will be without numerous players once again, likely enhancing the overall opportunity for production.

On the FanDuel slate, Sabonis ranks seventh overall with a 27.4% optimal-lineup rate. That mark lands him second among power forwards behind only the superstar he will be facing on the other side, Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has a 28.2% optimal-lineup rate. Sabonis’ 25.0% boom-score probability also ranks just behind his opponent. The pair make for excellent choices for power forward shares, though it is Sabonis who stands out with a 7.0 leverage score. He is significantly under-owned by the public on this slate; getting beyond their exposure seems like a sharp play.

On the DraftKings slate, Sabonis picks up center eligibility and has increased utility, but loses ground by optimal-lineup rate. He ranks 14th overall with a 13.3% rate that lands sixth among power forwards and fourth among centers. He is in play on the site, given a 53.3 median DraftKings point projection, but the upside could be capped with just a 16.3% boom-score probability. The slate is crowded with good players at heavy price tags today, putting a large range of players at similar probabilities. Sabonis is owned by the public and he has a -1.7 leverage score, meaning they are slightly ahead of the rate at which he is in the optimal lineup, but given the utility and the flat slate overall, mixing in shares of Sabonis is still a workable angle.

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Jalen Harris & Yuta Watanabe — Toronto Raptors

DraftKings — $3,800 — SG & $3,900 — PF | FanDuel — $4,000 — PG & $3,500 — SG

Two of the day’s extreme value plays come from the depleted Raptors roster, with both Watanabe and Harris landing as excellent plays across the industry. At different prices and positioning they make for slightly different plays from site to site, but both players should be on the board as options for which we want to reach beyond the field’s grasp for shares today. The Raptors will be without all three of their stars, as well as a host of other players, adding Chris Boucher back to the injury list in a change from the team’s most recent game. In that contest, Watanabe and Harris both put up relevant fantasy scoring rates in the mid-0.80 range, seeing mid-20s minutes. They will be thrust into full starters minutes and significant usage tonight, creating upside on both sites.

Harris ranks as the top player overall on DraftKings, coming in with a $3,800 salary at shooting guard and landing in the optimal lineup in 43.5% of simulated slates. He has a massive 61.8% boom-score probability, but the public is trailing the play significantly, leaving an 11.3% leverage score that we can exploit again and again in constructions. Not to be outdone, Watanabe is landing on the board with a larger leverage score at 12.9. The field is trailing his 38.5% optimal-lineup rate and ignoring the 56.6% boom-score probability for him on the slate. He is an extremely interesting option for the salary and lack of ownership. Both Raptors reserves are in relevant roles and could reap rewards for NBA DFS lineups that include them, they are fundamental building blocks for tonight’s DraftKings slate unless news changes heading into lock.

On FanDuel, it is Watanabe who lands atop the board with a 34.8% optimal-lineup rate. He costs the bare minimum on the blue sites, giving him major upside and a 72.0% boom-score probability that makes him a virtual lock for the minimum price. Watanabe is in a projected 31.6% of the field’s lineups, leaving him with a 3.2 leverage score that should appear in player’s minds as a flashing neon “play me” sign. Harris has a larger leverage score at 7.4 on FanDuel given the higher price and point guard positioning. He comes in as a $4,000 option at the position, leading to a 25.2% optimal-lineup rate that ranks second at the position behind teammate Malachi Flynn at 27.5%. The only other whose rate compares favorably at point guard is Trae Young, who stands at a 22.4% mark. Both of those players will be more highly owned. Slotting Harris in is an excellent way to gain ground on the field, and he has strong probability of a ceiling score with a 55.7% boom-score probability. Both Raptors are strong considerations as keys to the top of GPP standings on the FanDuel slate tonight as well.

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Delon Wright — Sacramento Kings

DraftKings — $8,100 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $8,300 — PG

While not ranking at the very top of the board, Wright is at least an interesting option on both sites tonight given the mid-range salary and clear minutes and role. Wright has averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute since joining the Kings. The team is expected to be without all of De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Harrison Barnes and Marvin Bagley tonight. Since the deadline Wright has produced 1.21 fantasy points per minute in a 138 minute sample with that configuration of teammates, leading everyone but Robert Woodard‘s irrelevant 1.43 in eight minutes.

Wright ranks 22nd overall on the FanDuel board with a 13.2% optimal-lineup rate and he is one of the lower-owned quality options, coming in with just a 9.2% raw ownership projection for the public. The 16.1% boom-score probability does not explode off the page by comparison to other options, but Wright remains in play with his 4.0 leverage score. He gains ground on the slate for a lack of depth at the position as well. Wright stands fourth overall at point guard after the pair of Raptors and Young, though he is more the first man on the next plateau than he is a strong comparison to the top three options.

Wright also stands fourth on the DraftKings slate when we sort for eligible point guards. He has a 9.5% optimal-lineup rate and a 9.1% boom-score probability against a heavy $8,100 salary, while slotting in at both guard positions. Wright is not drawing significant attention from the public. He has just a 7.6% ownership projection which leaves positive leverage on the less-than-likely play. Getting to some shares of Wright seems sharp. Rostering him more than the field is easy enough without incurring significant risk, though over-extending is unnecessary.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.