NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

After a chaotic NBA DFS weekend, daily fantasy basketball grinders get very little reprieve from an 11-game Monday night contest. With a ton of moving parts and some unpredictable situations, there are a lot of high-end plays on the board both in the stars and the scrubs range. This is going to be an interesting slate that could go any number of directions and could easily swing on one key piece of news opening alternate values. With 11 games on the slate, this article will focus on the very top of the Boom/Bust tool. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Cedi Osman — Cleveland Cavaliers

DraftKings — $3,800 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $3,500 — SF

Osman has significant upside and utility for NBA DFS action this evening. Playing for short-handed Cleveland opens up significant opportunity. The team will be without at least Larry Nance Jr., Collin Sexton, Taurean Prince and Isaiah Hartenstein tonight, leaving Osman with a 32.8-minute projection in the afternoon update. Osman averages 0.81 fantasy points per minute across all situations this year. When he started in a similar situation just last night, Osman played 37.2 minutes, scoring 19 real points on 7-for-12 shooting (3-for-6 from 3) and added two rebounds and five assists. He can fill out a stat line similarly tonight. There will be even more opportunity with Nance sidelined; he saw 22 ineffective minutes last night. Osman is underpriced for this spot and is an extreme value play on both sites.

On FanDuel, Osman costs the bare minimum and lands in the optimal lineup more frequently than anyone not named Kristaps Porzingis, appearing there 27.5% of the time in simulations. Osman has a significant 53.0% boom-score probability on the slate, and the public has taken notice. He will be rostered by a projected 57.2% of the field, leaving him with a wildly negative -29.7 leverage score, one of the lower marks seen all season. Still, for just the minimum and one of the higher optimal-lineup rates, Osman is more do-or-die building block than he is someone to be skipped.

The play shapes up similarly on the DraftKings slate. Osman is a bit more expensive by salary but picks up value in his positional flexibility between guard and forward, making him an excellent option at virtually any spot in a lineup. Osman is a valuable building block on the site and lands in the optimal lineup in 36.9% of simulated slates with that extreme utility. The ownership is heavy at 58.0% and a -21.1 leverage score, but as with the other site, there is simply too much value and upside to sacrifice. Osman has a 42.9% boom-score probability and seems like a strong building block for lineup constructions on this slate as well.

Jordan Clarkson — Utah Jazz

DraftKings — $6,800 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $6,000 — SG

With the Jazz playing without Donovan Mitchell for the foreseeable future, there is plenty of opportunity in the backcourt for players like Clarkson, Mike Conley and Joe Ingles to shine on any given night. With his salary still not where it should be for the enhanced opportunity, Clarkson stands out on tonight’s slate on both sites. He averages 1.03 fantasy points per minute across all situations for the season, a mark that has stayed the same in this situation this year. There is upside in the pricing and the 30-minute projection on Clarkson, particularly when accounting for the lack of public exposure.

On DraftKings, Clarkson ranks as the fifth-highest-rated player by optimal-lineup rate, coming in with a 15.3% mark. He stands alone among those top five options in the category as the only one with positive leverage. Clarkson lands at a 6.3 leverage score, while the average of the four players above him by optimal-lineup rate is -13.85. Clarkson is the first pressure release point for public exposures on the slate. He should be rostered well ahead of the field’s 9.0% projected rate. There is plenty of upside in the 19.3% boom-score probability. If Clarkson is under-owned, it would be wise to be on the right side of the equation.

Clarkson also stands as the fifth-most optimal option on the blue site, pulling in a 20.2% probability of being in the top lineup. He costs just $6,000 on FanDuel, adding to the upside and utility in the play. His boom-score probability spikes to a 35.5% on the site, third best on the slate and first among shooting guards. Clarkson will be under-owned for this upside. He has a 3.4 leverage score against just 16.8% public exposure, and it makes sense to press beyond the field on this site as well.

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Andre Drummond — Los Angeles Lakers

DraftKings — $7,400 — C | FanDuel — $6,900 — C

Drummond is a tale of two sites tonight. On DraftKings, where there are far more options in play given the positional flexibility, he is on the board primarily as a mix-in. On FanDuel, he has more relevance at a lower price despite the return of superstar teammate Anthony Davis. Davis has been back for two games, playing 16 minutes in the first and 28 minutes in the second as he ramps back up after a month out with an injury. In those two games, Drummond averaged 30.1 minutes, 10.0 real points, 15.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 3.5 stocks. There is massive per-minute fantasy upside regardless of Davis’ status, but the minutes are potentially a question mark.

On DraftKings, Drummond is pricey at $7,400 for just a 26.7-minute projection. With options like Porzingis pulling in center eligibility on the site, Drummond is not in the optimal lineup with significant frequency. He comes up optimal just 9.2% of the time despite a 14.5% boom-score probability and a strong 36.9 raw DraftKings points projection. Drummond will need to crack the 30-minute mark to deliver upside, but if he does it could be significant, that is what we are playing for in rostering him as a low-owned center play, though the leverage score is at just 0.2, meaning we would not be alone in the play. Ultimately, Drummond is “fine” on the site, but not someone to go far out of our way for.

On FanDuel, he lands as the fourth-most optimal NBA DFS pick at the position. He is more expensive than Jarrett Allen, who tops the board with a 16.2% optimal-lineup rate, but Drummond’s 9.7% in that spot is not particularly far afield for the gained leverage. Drummond comes in with a 3.5 leverage score, which is favorable considering the -11.2 mark on Allen. The other two centers above Drummond on the board are the two big pay-up options at the position, Nikola Jokic and Nikola Vucevic. Drummond provides some sneaky value, though there is potential for opportunity cost with some big names on the board at the position tonight. If he sees enough time on the court, he could explode through his ceiling. Drummond comes in with a 31.9% boom-score probability and should be rostered ahead of the projected 6.2% at which the public is getting to him.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.