NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

By virtue of sheer volume, the five-game Tuesday NBA DFS slate should offer a bit of respite from the chaos of last night. With only a handful of games, there should be fewer moving parts and a more easily read board. There are two games on the slate that stand out for high totals and potential for significant daily fantasy basketball scoring, so there should be some concentration of ownership and potential for underrated opportunities. This article will focus on finding a few of those positively leveraged high-upside plays on the boom/bust tool. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Harrison Barnes — Sacramento Kings

DraftKings — $6,700 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $6,000 — PF

Barnes has had a solid season, helping shoulder the load in the team’s frontcourt as other players fall to injury around him. Barnes has 0.83 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, up from just 0.72 last year in a sign of significant improvement in NBA DFS productivity. He has led the Kings in minutes since the All-Star break, at 37.2 per game. In that stretch he has averaged 14.1 real points and 7.5 rebounds, putting up 3.2 assists and a stock per game to help pad the stats. Barnes needs just 15.4% usage to put up that production in the sample, making him a highly efficient option in his usual quality role in a fast-paced, highly projected game.

Barnes has a 36.4% optimal-lineup appearance on FanDuel, ranking him third overall at any position. As a $6,000 power forward, he provides strong upside on the site and lands with a 33.8% boom-score probability. Barnes will be under-owned by the field to a pretty wide degree. He has a slate-leading 8.4 leverage score and should be rostered well beyond the field’s 28.0% projected exposure in this spot. Barnes is an under-the-radar play for daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel tonight.

On the DraftKings slate, Barnes ranks eighth with a 22.2% optimal-lineup rate and will also be under-owned. He has a 4.6 leverage score, with the public falling to a 17.6% projected exposure that will be easy to exceed. There is quality upside available in Barnes, and he slots into both forward positions, providing added utility. The 15.7% boom-score probability is not eye-popping, but it is solid and well worth rostering here.

Brandon Ingram — New Orleans Pelicans

DraftKings — $8,400 — SF | FanDuel — $8,600 — SF

Ingram is not a fan-favorite among NBA DFS players. He always seems appropriately priced and rarely smashes through to a ceiling score, at least anecdotally. For the season, Ingram has a respectable 1.13 fantasy points per minute, but his price should likely be somewhat lower in general. For the money on this particular slate, however, Ingram has interesting value and is getting overlooked by a wide swath of the field, which makes him appealing for GPP play.

Ingram is an $8,400 small forward on the DraftKings slate where he lands in the optimal lineup 23.6% of the time in our simulations. He has a 17.6% boom-score probability despite a relatively high price from the upper-mid range. That mark is scaring the public off of an unpopular player. They are leaving Ingram with an appealing 5.4 leverage score that it makes sense to try to roster.

On the blue site, Ingram slots in with a 27.0% optimal-lineup rate, which ranks him ninth on the entire slate. He ranks out well next to other star-caliber players across the other positions, and he stands alone among players at the three. Ingram has a 21.1% boom-score probability, and the public is well behind. His projected 19.4% exposure is leaving a 7.6 leverage score to exploit. Rostering more than the public’s share of Ingram seems advisable, which is never comfortable to say.

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Bruce Brown — Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings — $4,900 — PG/SF | FanDuel — $4,800 — SG

Brown has significant appeal as a mid-range value play on this slate. The Nets are on the other side of the game against the Pelicans, and the contest is pulling in the second-highest total of the night. Brooklyn will be without both James Harden and Kevin Durant tonight, thrusting Kyrie Irving into obvious prominence, but also benefiting a player like Brown significantly. Brown has produced 0.94 fantasy points per minute in a close approximation of these circumstances throughout the season. He stands out for upside and leverage on both sites.

On FanDuel, Brown is the seventh-ranked player at any position, appearing in the optimal lineup in 29.1% of simulated slates. Brown does not cost much and will not have to do a ton of work to approach the ceiling score for a tournament-winning lineup. Brown has a 31.5% boom-score probability that is tops among shooting guards, while the public is leaving him at a 7.9 leverage score. Brown will be under-owned if he is anywhere around the current 21.2% projection.

On the DraftKings slate, Brown adds valuable small forward eligibility, increasing his upside and versatility. He costs slightly more against the lower cap but remains worth the spend. Brown lands in the optimal lineup in 25.6% of simulated slates for DraftKings. He has a solid 18.5% boom-score probability and will be at a 4.6 leverage score if things hold as currently projected. This is another undervalued spot on the slate, he could provide a significant GPP performance tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.