NBA Optimal Lineup Leaders & Leverage Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel with Collin Sexton | Thursday, April 15

Thursday’s tiny four-game slate has some room for exploration for our daily fantasy basketball picks. With so few upside plays to choose from, we will be exploring some of the better opportunities for leverage in tournaments. The small slate has us foregoing some of the more obvious names in favor of a few options from down the board who might help to create a little space or free up salary.

As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Collin Sexton (Q) — Cleveland Cavaliers

DraftKings — $7,500 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $7,400 — SG

Gamers don’t need to travel far down the board to find the

first semi-contrarian pick of the night. Collin Sexton did not play last night, while nursing a hamstring, and is listed as questionable for tonight’s tilt, but seems more likely to play. Assuming he goes, he will be in a solid spot as a value option that the public has been reluctant to roster without firm information.

Sexton is currently projected for just 21.2%% ownership on FanDuel, giving him a whopping 13.9 leverage score on the slate for blue site daily fantasy basketball action tonight. He has a significant 35.1 optimal-lineup rate that ranks him fourth overall and first among eligible shooting guards, making him a standout play for the site and the position. Sexton’s affordable price has him coming up with a 16.1% boom score probability that, while not explosive, is indicative of some remaining upside.

On the DraftKings slate, Sexton slots in at both guard positions, adding to his upside and utility. Sexton is in the optimal lineup in 21.2% of simulations for the site, ranking him 15th overall, but he will be owned by just 11% of the field. This leaves significant room and leverage to exploit on the player on this slate as well. Sexton should be owned well beyond the field on both sites, barring news about him not playing.

Andre Drummond — Los Angeles Lakers

DraftKings — $6,900 — C | FanDuel — $6,800 – C

Drummond is projected for 26.4 minutes in Awesemo’s most recent update, giving his 1.42 fantasy points per minute significant upside at his prices across the industry. Since arriving from Cleveland, Drummond has averaged 10.5 real points to go with 11.3 rebounds and 2.3 stocks per game, while playing without the stars he came to LA to join.

Drummond stands out as a value on both sites. On DraftKings, he ranks ninth overall by optimal-lineup rate, though there are several interesting centers competing with him for attention. At just $6,900, Drummond offers significant upside and the public will be well behind the curve, rostering him at only 16.8%, leaving a 10.1 leverage score on the slate. Getting to Drummond alongside another of the high-upside, frequently optimal but under-owned centers like Hassan Whiteside, seems like a great point from which to leap with your DraftKings lineups.

On the FanDuel slate, Drummond stands as the 18th ranked player overall by optimal-lineup rate, but the second-highest center. On a singular-center site, that is critical value. Drummond has a 20.6% optimal-lineup rate that compares favorably with Robert Williams. The more highly ranked option at 25.2%. Both players have upside, Drummond comes in with a 36.6% boom score probability and will be under-owned at just 14.0% public exposure, leaving a 6.6 leverage score. There is appeal in both centers on this slate. Monitoring the public ownership and making a leverage-based decision is a great approach to the spot.


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Hassan Whiteside — Sacramento Kings

DraftKings — $3,400 — C | FanDuel — $5,000 — C

Whiteside is capable of quite a bit even when he sees even limited minutes. He has posted 1.35 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, only slightly down from the 1.39 he put up last year. This is a per-minute beast who simply does not fit well into the modern NBA. However, Whiteside is projected for 19.6 minutes, which makes him highly relevant for NBA DFS purposes.

On the FanDuel slate, Whiteside is priced up to $5,000, which all but takes him off the board by comparison to some of the other options. He maintains a 9.4% optimal-lineup rate and a 4.0 leverage score, so there is room to roll out limited shares. But with just a 22.6% boom score probability and a low minutes and raw fantasy points projection, there is simply more upside in other centers.

On DraftKings, on the other hand, Whiteside leads the entire slate with a 40.9% optimal-lineup rate and a 44.7% boom score probability. The reason for this is his ridiculously low $3,400 salary, which provides explosive upside even in a limited situation. The public is way behind the curve as well, rostering him at only around 20%, which would leave around a 20.0 leverage score on an excellent play. Assuming those numbers hold leading into lock, this could be an absolute smash spot.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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