NBA Optimal Lineup Leaders & Leverage Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel with Collin Sexton | Wednesday, May 12

The six-game Wednesday slate of NBA DFS action features three potentially high-octane spots for daily fantasy basketball point production, as the Wizards – Hawks, Spurs – Nets and Trail Blazers – Jazz games are all totaled into the 230s. The balance of the slate is less exciting on the Vegas board but could offer some high-end selections for NBA DFS purposes across both sites, making it a very interesting slate to pick apart for upside, leverage and value. With six games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall DFS basketball picks, which also provide some leverage to the field. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

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This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Payton Pritchard — Boston Celtics

DraftKings — $3,100 — PG | FanDuel — $3,500 — PG

At essentially minimum price on both sites, Pritchard is unlikely to sneak past anyone or be a positively leveraged play against the field tonight given his obvious upside in a 31-minute projection. Pritchard is likely to see the bulk of the time at point guard for the Celtics tonight, with both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart on the shelf alongside usage-heavy teammates from other positions, namely Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams. Pritchard has played 219 minutes with those four players off the court this season, he averages 0.94 fantasy points per minute in the sample. That rate, or anything remotely approaching it, makes Pritchard an absolute no-brainer of a decision on both sites tonight, he is a fundamental building block of value for all things NBA DFS on this slate.

On DraftKings, Pritchard costs $100 over the minimum and will be explosively popular. The public ownership is at 60% in the afternoon update and likely will climb higher. Regardless, this is an excellent option for value who comes up in the optimal lineup 45.6% of the time in simulated slates. Pritchard is projected to hit his boom score value more than half the time, coming in with a 55.9% probability in the category. Even if he delivers only his median projection at 26.6, for the salary it is not a loss to have him rostered when the rest of the field is starting from the same place. Utilizing Pritchard at a mix of the guard and utility spots will help provide more flexible roster constructions on the site, potentially creating pathways to exit the lanes commonly traveled by the field, even when rostering the most popular player on the slate.

On FanDuel, Pritchard costs the $3,500 minimum, but his absolute value has seemingly less significance to the slate. He lands in the optimal lineup in 29.9% of simulated slates, which is still an excellent mark but ranks only third overall and compares similarly to the top 10 in the category. Pritchard gains separation from other options on the FanDuel slate by virtue of his boom-score probability, which stands at 47.3%, trailing only teammate Jayson Tatum at 48.5%. Pritchard will be popular on the FanDuel slate as well, but not nearly so much as on the other side of the industry. At just a -1.9 leverage score, there seems to be value and upside still on the table for the minimum price. The consideration of opportunity cost given the overall raw ceiling score potential of other point guards, including Russell Westbrook, Trae Young and Luka Doncic, should be the only factor working against Pritchard on the site where positionality dictates construction more strictly.


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Collin Sexton — Cleveland Cavaliers

DraftKings — $8,400 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $7,600 — SG

One of the only healthy bodies for the atrocious Cavaliers, Sexton retains value for a massive potential usage rate and a huge volume of minutes on the table tonight. In the team’s most recent game, played in a similar configuration without Darius Garland, Cedi Osman, Larry Nance Jr. and others, Sexton drew a gigantic 38.2% usage share while contributing a 50.0% assist rate. That translated to 25 real points with five rebounds and eight assists, plus a steal and just three turnovers. Sexton was just 7-for-26 from the field and 1-for-6 from three in that game. If his shot is falling with more consistency and he sees similar volume tonight, there is significant upside.

Sexton’s 28.5% optimal-lineup rate ranks fifth among players at any position on the FanDuel board. He is the highest-ranked shooting guard in the category, with DeMar DeRozan ranking eighth overall and second at shooting guard at his 26.2% mark. Sexton provides upside on his affordable price tag. He has a 25.4% boom-score probability, but the field will be trailing his overall potential for production. Sexton outpaces all other top options with a highly appealing 7.3 leverage score. There is plenty of room on this bandwagon tonight.

Sexton has less overall appeal on the DraftKings slate. He is priced at $8,400 on the site, a significant bump from the FanDuel salary that comes against a higher cap. The increased salary comes with positional flexibility between the guard spots, but that does little to help the overall upside. Sexton ranks as simply a mix-and-match play on the site. He has a 9.7% optimal-lineup rate and a 9.2% boom-score probability. The public will be trailing the probability of success, leaving a 3.1 leverage score, so there is hope, but it is not a play that requires over-extension.

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Naji Marshall — New Orleans Pelicans

DraftKings — $4,800 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $5,000 — SG

Marshall is another player who is somewhat underpriced for the potential opportunity ahead of him tonight. With a number of teammates out, including Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart and Steven Adams, there will be a glut of minutes for Marshall to help fill once again tonight. Marshall has started the team’s most recent three games in similar circumstances, seeing 28.2 minutes per night with 9.7 real points per game. He operates on just 16.7% usage and contributes a 17.3% rebounding rate in the sample, though in the team’s most recent contest he posted 12 points, 11 rebounds, two assists and four stocks in 30.5 minutes, displaying the potential for upside at these salaries.

Marshall is a bargain on the DraftKings slate where he benefits from the precious guard and forward eligibility that extends him to five positions in our roster constructions. He is coming up in the optimal lineup in 30.0% of simulations for the DraftKings slate and looks like one of the best plays on the board given the lower public ownership. Marshall has a 2.0 leverage score in the late afternoon. Even if the gap closes to somewhat negative leverage, there should be upside remaining.

On the blue site, Marshall checks in at $5,000 as a small forward. He has both upside and leverage on the slate on this site as well, coming in with a 37.6% boom-score probability that ranks tops among available small forwards. His 29.7% optimal-lineup rate stands fourth overall on the slate, but the public is behind the curve. A projected 27.4% ownership share by the field leaves an exploitable 2.3 leverage score on one of the better value plays on the slate.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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