NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

Saturday’s seven-game NBA DFS slate seems somewhat straightforward by comparison. In a year loaded with a nearly unbearable amount of injury news and player in/outs, we seem to have landed on a somewhat stable day. And if you believe that will hold, I have plenty of other whoppers to tell you. As of the mid-afternoon, we have had limited news that impacts the slate. The primary information has come out related to the Toronto rotation, which will be without Pascal Siakam, and likely without Kyle Lowry. That should create significant value on its own, but we know well that the daily fantasy basketball gods are not so kind, and we will surely have more news land before lock. With seven games on the slate, the focus will primarily be on the board’s top overall plays. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Chris Boucher — Toronto Raptors

DraftKings — $6,800 — C | FanDuel — $6,500 — C

The primary beneficiary from Siakam’s absence projects to be big man Chris Boucher. Boucher averages 13.7 real points on just over 20% usage across 23.6 minutes per game for the season. He adds a healthy 32.5% rebounding share as well, though there are not many assists to speak of. In games without Siakam and Lowry, Boucher produces at his usual 1.28 fantasy point per minute rate, but he sees both more time and usage.

On the DraftKings slate, Boucher lands in the optimal lineup in 29.4% of simulated slates, which ranks him second overall on the slate and first at the center position. He is at an affordable price and has a high-quality 38.8% boom score probability that tells us he has a good chance of smashing through his required ceiling score. Boucher will be popular, but he projects to a playable 0.4 leverage score. We can exceed the public’s projected ownership on the player tonight, assuming constructions that hew toward the optimal builds.

On the FanDuel slate, Boucher lands as the second-best overall player by optimal lineup appearance rate, coming in with a 29.9% mark. This lands him atop the center position, though he is getting close competition from Enes Kanter at a better price point, though both centers drawing negative leverage, with Boucher at a -4.9 and Kanter at a -5.2. Both remain in play as building block options with explosive upside. Boucher has a 60.4% boom score probability that jumps off the page. Getting to a solid distribution of both options is advisable, but Boucher has a slight advantage on the boom/bust tool.

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DeAndre’ Bembry — Toronto Raptors

DraftKings — $3,600 — PG/SF | FanDuel — $5,600 — SG

Bembry comes in as a dramatically different play across sites while still being viable on both, given his positioning. Bembry will also benefit from his teammates’ absences in the Toronto rotation. He steps up to a 0.80 fantasy point per minute mark in this configuration of the Raptors’ roster, making him a viable value play. Bembry should see more time and usage in this situation and is worthy of consideration on both sites for the potential upside.

On FanDuel, Bembry is a $5,600 shooting guard who lands in the optimal lineup in 28.6% of simulations, ranking him third overall on the entire slate. Bembry provides value at a relatively flat position on the blue site, despite not being at a bargain-basement price. He has a strong 34.1% boom score probability, but the public is behind the curve on him, leaving a strong 9.6 leverage score with a lot of appeal. If Bembry will be under-owned to that degree, he seems like a no-brainer play, given the money to spend at the mid-range.

On the DraftKings slate, we get Bembry at the absolute top of the board, with a standout 59.6% optimal lineup appearance rate. To repeat, well more than half the time, Bembry will be in the best possible lineup construction of the night. This is a critical value play on the DraftKings slate, where Bembry lands at either point guard or small forward while costing just $3,600. The cross-site pricing does not align, and DraftKings players are getting a valuable discount on the strong play. Getting to Bembry’s 64.3% boom score probability at a ridiculous 19.6 leverage score seems like a great idea, and Bembry is closing in on lock status, though that is rarely something we push in this space. Getting well beyond the field on the Bembry play is the right move, the level to which you do it is down to personal preference and risk tolerance.

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Damian Lillard — Portland Trail Blazers

DraftKings — $9,400 — PG | FanDuel — $9,000 — PG

Today, both sites are being generous to daily fantasy basketball players, pricing one of the best players in the league and an MVP candidate far too low for his talents. Damian Lillard has had a standout year throughout the season, putting up a 1.28 fantasy point per minute rate across all situations this season and carrying his team in the earlier absences of CJ McCollum and center Jusuf Nurkic. The big man will be out on Saturday, leaving some usage on the table for his star teammates at the guard position if they want to soak it up. In the situation, Lillard leads the team with 30.7% usage, while McCollum brings in 28%. Lillard is priced down from his normal opportunities and would be a great play with Nurkic on the court. In this situation, there could be even more room for upside.

On the DraftKings slate, Lillard ranks out with a 19.9% optimal lineup appearance rate, landing him eighth overall on the slate and fourth among eligible point guards. Lillard compares favorably with those options in terms of leverage score, where he comes up with just a -0.9 mark, though McCollum will be in an even better spot at his $7,700 salary. Lillard looks strong by boom score probability, coming up with an 18.2% mar that also plays well at the position. With Bembry’s point guard eligibility soaking up some of the optimal shares at the position Lillard could be an even stronger play for upside as a pay-up to be different play.

On the FanDuel slate, Lillard is simply too low-priced at just $9,000. He leads all players with a 31.1% optimal lineup appearance rate. The superstar point guard has a 30.1% boom score probability, he is one of the strongest options on the slate, but the public is not getting to him enough. Lillard has a highly appealing 5.3 leverage score. He looks like one of the better plays on the entire slate on the blue site. Unless we see the ownership spike heading into lock, creating a majorly negative leverage score in later updates, this looks like a spot on which we can fire with both barrels.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.