Midweek daily fantasy basketball is loaded with a 10-game Wednesday night main slate on both sites. The NBA schedule-makers graced us with a big day today and another tomorrow before we hit the annual dead space that is the NBA All-Star break. We’ll have a Live Before Lock for All-Star Sunday, and the site has a ton of great content for NHL and other sports to hold us over. Before we reach that point, we have some critical decisions to talk about for tonight’s daily fantasy basketball slate. With 10games, we’ll be looking at a few of the top plays on the board for optimal-lineup rates while not sweating the sneakiest low-ownership plays too much. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.
As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).
Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders
These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Josh Richardson — Dallas Mavericks
DraftKings — $4,900 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $4,600 — SF
With the Mavericks, the NBA and its fans all agreeing to engage in a nonsensical subterfuge in which we agree to pretend that Luka Doncic is hurt, the team will be without their superstar point guard as he gets an extra rest day ahead of the All-Star break. This should thrust several of his teammates into major NBA DFS relevance tonight. The primary beneficiaries are likely to be Jalen Brunson, who should receive the lion’s share of the time at the point, and Kristaps Porzingis, who becomes the team’s go-to by default. The public is noticing those two but missing Richardson; all three should be rostered. Richardson averages 0.70 fantasy points per minute this season, down from a 0.81 clip last year. That rate plummets to 0.57 in a small sample without Doncic this year, and he receives just 17.6% usage in the situation, but Richardson’s track record suggests we should expect more toward upside production.
Richardson is an inexpensive building block that is going under-owned on both sites. On DraftKings he slots in at the small forward and shooting guard spots and has a strong 23.8% optimal-lineup rate. For the low salary, Richardson is expected to reach his boom score 32.3% of the time, fourth overall on the slate. The public is not getting to him enough, particularly with multi-position eligibility; Richardson makes a great play with his 6.1 leverage score.
In FanDuel contests, Richardson ranks second among all players in optimal-lineup appearances, coming in with a 30.4% rate. He is a $4,600 small forward on the site, providing value where it is needed. The low salary has him pulling in a healthy 46.5% boom-score probability, third best on the site. The public is short on Richardson shares on the blue site as well. He comes up with a 4.2 leverage score that should be exploited for sharp builds along the optimal construction path.
Talen Horton-Tucker
DraftKings — $3,400 — SF | FanDuel — $3,900 — SG
A tale of two sites tonight, Horton-Tucker looks significantly more relevant on the DraftKings slate than he does on FanDuel. With a 24-minute projection from Awesemo, Horton-Tucker will be a significant part of the Lakers’ success or failure on Wednesday night. The team will be without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, which is to say about 90% of their talent. Some of the regulars who could fill the void are missing as well. Alex Caruso and Marc Gasol will both likely be out, and Kyle Kuzma is questionable after missing the last game.
When he sees minutes, Horton-Tucker can be a productive daily fantasy basketball contributor; he has 0.91 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. In an extremely limited sample of 52 minutes with all of those teammates off the floor, Horton-Tucker has a 29.5% usage rate and produced a monster 1.64 fantasy points per minute, which would make him one of the best players in the league if extended to a large sample. Obviously he is not that, but he is very relevant for tonight’s slate on one site.
On FanDuel Horton-Tucker ranks as a mix-and-match option. He has a quality boom-score probability of 41.1% and is low cost at the position, but he appears in the optimal lineup in just 13.7% of simulations given the general upside at his position. He will be slightly over-owned at -1.5 leverage, but rostering him around the field would not hurt you too much; though, the preference would likely be to duck under the public exposure on FanDuel.
On DraftKings Horton-Tucker appears to be a fundamental building block and potentially major inflection point for tonight’s results. His low price locks in value as a moveable part, and he comes up with a 43.0% boom-score probability at the price. With the ability to move him around the lineup, Horton-Tucker lands in the optimal lineup in 34.3% of simulations. The public is getting to him, and he is trending into negative leverage territory at a -6.0 mark, but there is still room on a play that provides significant value and roster upward mobility at other positions.
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Enes Kanter — Portland Trail Blazers
DraftKings — $7,500 — C / FanDuel — $6,300 — C
It is difficult to find anyone who doesn’t enjoy Kanter on the basketball court and in the media. Kanter has become a fixture for the Blazers this season, filling in admirably for the injured Jusuf Nurkic. Seemingly a quality daily fantasy basketball value play for years, Kanter has produced 1.14 fantasy points per minute so far this season. Kanter averages 11.6 real-life points in his 26.1 minutes per game on just 16.8% usage for the season. Across all situations, he contributes a 40.3% rebounding rate, including a ridiculous 58.7% offensive rebounding rate. Kanter adds a 10.7% assist share to the mix and is a productive fantasy contributor. In the absence of both Nurkic and C.J. McCollum, Kanter sees slightly more usage at 17.8%, though it does not translate to a significant change in production from his season-long averages.
On DraftKings Kanter ranks as the sixth best available center, with a 9.7% optimal-lineup rate. He has a very solid median projection of 41 DraftKings points and a strong boom-score probability at 24.3%, though there is a tightly packed field of options with similar upside. The center spot is a wide range of similar probabilities on this slate, with plenty of value plays. With an increased price, Kanter remains on the board and will be slightly under-owned at less than 10%.
On FanDuel Kanter is a far more important play. He provides a discounted salary at juts $6,300 and appears in the optimal lineup in 21.1% of simulations despite the singular center requirement. That rate is nearly double that of the next highest center, Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns, who appears in the optimal lineup in 12.8% of simulations. Kanter will be a popular choice tonight, but there is not much to worry about at only a -3.8 leverage score against the other metrics. It makes sense to extend beyond the field on Kanter ownership tonight while spreading the leftover shares across a tightly packed field of secondary and tertiary options at the position.
Dennis Schroder — Los Angeles Lakers
DraftKings — $5,900 — PG/SG / FanDuel — $5,500 — PG
The nominal lead option for the Lakers tonight is seeing a massive bump in ownership from where he is traditionally rostered by the public. With LeBron and a host of other Lakers sitting out the night, Schroder will both have the ball in his hands and be the primary option for his team, but the potential for upside production is still in question. Schroder averages 0.85 fantasy points per minute. In just 62 minutes without James, Davis and Caruso this season, Schroder sees a small uptick to 22% usage but has produced just 0.75 fantasy points per minute. He sees a dip in his assist percentage despite taking James out of the equation, which is surprising. Ultimately, Schroder has produced slightly less despite what should be a big increase in opportunity.
On tonight’s DraftKings slate, Schroder is available at either guard spot and is at a reasonable salary considering the potential opportunity. His boom-score probability lands at 23.6%, which is a quality mark for the slate but seems lower than expectation. His optimal-lineup rate has the same impact, coming in at just 13.0%, which suggests that the public may be flocking to Schroder too much. His ownership projection currently stands at nearly 30%, more than double the frequency with which he appears as an optimal play. This is a spot where we should look in other directions for plays at the position. Undercutting the field’s ownership on Schroder — while still rostering some shares — looks like a sharp pivot in this spot.
On the FanDuel slate, Schroder appears equally overvalued. He is only available as a point guard and appears in the optimal lineup in only 11.6% of simulations. Schroder has a quality boom-score probability on the site, landing at 36.5%, though that would rank him just 16th overall and sixth at the position. Schroder appears over-owned at his 28.8% projection, and his -17.2 leverage score is a major concern. Getting below the field on the FanDuel slate appears advisable as well. There are five stronger point guard plays on the FanDuel slate that will all be at significantly stronger ownership to upside-and-optimal ratios.
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