NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

A nine-game Friday night of NBA DFS action should have daily fantasy basketball players salivating, with a tantalizing set of games and situations creating opportunities up and down the salary ranges on both sites. The slate has eight games totaled in the mid-220s or higher, with only the Knicks game slipping into the teens. The high point is the Warriors – Wizards game, which smashes through the game total ceiling at 239.5. With nine games on the slate, the focus will primarily be on the top overall plays on the board. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls

DraftKings — $7,800 — SG | FanDuel — $7,500 — SG

LaVine has fallen to too cheap a price point for his talents. His 1.16 fantasy points per minute stands out above most other players in this tier, and there is plenty of reason to roster him on both sites. LaVine leads the Bulls with a 30% usage rate for the season that has largely held up since Nikola Vucevic joined the team at the trade deadline. He puts up 27.1 points per game with that usage, seeing 35 minutes a night and adding a reasonable 25.3% assist share. His rebounding leaves plenty to be desired, however, which puts a bit of cap on his fantasy scoring when his shots are not falling. LaVine is in a great pricing position on both sites, which is paramount for our purposes on this slate.

On FanDuel, LaVine lands in the optimal lineup in 22.8% of simulated slates. The low salary has him pulling in a 28.7% boom-score probability, and he is not overly owned by the public. LaVine has a -0.2 leverage score, but will only be in 23.0% of the projected public lineups, a raw number that would be easy to exceed. Getting to LaVine in this spot seems like a strong building block for the blue site.

On DraftKings, LaVine stands out with a 14.8% optimal-lineup rate that ranks sixth overall on the slate. He leads guards in the category and should be rostered more frequently than the rate at which the public is getting to him. LaVine has a 17.9% boom-score probability and is pulling in a high-end median projection. With a dead-even 0.0 leverage score that would make Dean Wormer mad, LaVine can easily be pushed beyond the public’s ownership share.

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Draymond Green — Golden State Warriors

DraftKings — $6,700 — PF/C | FanDuel — $7,500 — PF

Plying his trade in the highest-totaled game of the night, gamers can expect Green to continue to produce in peripheral categories without needing to score the ball and benefiting from a frenetic pace. The team’s matchup against the Wizards will be a track meet and should offer plenty of rebounding opportunities. Green pulls in a 23.2% rebounding rate and a 45.3% assist share, making him viable at his pricing on at least one site.

On DraftKings, Green stands out as the top option on the board by optimal-lineup rate, coming in with a solid 20.1%. He is very inexpensive and offers utility with his power forward and center eligibility. Green has a 21.9% boom-score probability against his low-for-him salary. The public will be on him, but the -3.1 leverage score is well within playable range, and the overall public raw ownership is not extreme. Gamers can confidently roster shares of Green on DraftKings tonight.

On the FanDuel slate, Green stands out far less. He has a 14.1% optimal-lineup rate, ranking him 18th overall on the slate. He lands fourth among power forwards in the category while coming in at a $7,500 price that is second-highest among that group of players. Green has a 20.7% boom-score probability that ranks beneath those others as well, though he will be slightly under-owned and has a 1.7 leverage score. Ultimately, Green is a mix-in play on the slate.

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Russell Westbrook — Washington Wizards

DraftKings — $11,000 — PG | FanDuel — $11,200 — PG

Westbrook comes into the bottom of the NBA alphabet tilt with the Warriors as the most expensive player on the slate, and deservedly so. He has exploded back to his old walking-triple-double self this season, playing alongside Bradley Beal in the high-octane Wizards offense. The game has by far the highest total on the slate, and the two teams should be running up and down the court scoring and creating rebounding opportunities for Westbrook. This is an excellent spot for a big Westbrook game despite the very high pricing. He looks like a spectacular option to pay up to be contrarian tonight.

On FanDuel, Westbrook lands with a 17.2% optimal-lineup rate, ranking him 10th overall on the slate. He has a 28.7% boom-score probability despite the high price, and the public is well behind the curve. Westbrook is under-owned at just 11.6%, giving him a solid 6.0 leverage score that is rarely seen on a high-upside star. Building him into lineups is a strongly positive play as things stand in the late afternoon.

On the DraftKings slate, Westbrook pops up with an 18.1% optimal-lineup rate. He has a 26.8% boom-score probability despite only being eligible at one position and coming in with a slate-high salary. Westbrook will be under-owned in this spot as well, coming up with a 2.7 leverage score and just 15.4% raw ownership. This is a good spot for him across sites; rostering more Westbrook than the field is the right approach.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.