🏀 NBA Optimal Lineup Leaders & Leverage Picks | DraftKings & FanDuel with James Harden | Saturday, Feb. 27

Friday’s enjoyable slate gives way to a solid looking seven game Saturday affair that has taken on an extreme stars and scrubs shape in the last few hours. With some news in hand and an idea of where additional news may emerge from, we should be well armed to build some strong value based lineups that get to the key stars and role players, without sacrificing too much of our desire to be contrarian from the public’s general approach. With seven games, we’ll be looking at a few of the top plays on the board for optimal-lineup rates and a few of the pivots at better leverage scores that will help us improve other positions with salary savings. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

James Harden — Brooklynettes

DraftKings — $11,000 — PG | FanDuel — $10,900 — SG

The Brooklyn Nets three-headed King Ghidorah lineup will be down two heads tonight, with Kevin Durant out through the All-Star break and Kyrie Irving sitting out Saturday. This should leave James Harden as the dominant usage monster on the court once again, and vaults him to the very top of the board for both sites for daily fantasy basketball purposes. In 240 minutes without Durant and Irving since coming to the Nets, Harden has a beastly 32.3% usage rate and produces 1.54 fantasy points per minute, with a 13% rebounding rate and a gargantuan 56% assist share. Harden is the offense for the Nets tonight and an apex predator in daily fantasy lineup constructions on this slate.

On FanDuel, Harden lands atop the overall board with a 57.6% optimal lineup appearance rate, one of the highest marks in recent memory. His boom score probability of 76.4% on a salary of $10,900 tells us all we need to know about the potential for upside, and the public isn’t getting to him with nearly enough frequency. In addition to more than doubling the probability of success of every other option at the position in every metric, Harden also provides a whopping 19.7 leverage score in our most recent update. This will likely catch up as we crash into lock, but it is unlikely to slide massively negative, and even if it does Harden is still likely to be very good chalk.

He is similarly positioned on the DraftKings board, despite a salary that is higher on paper and much higher relative to the overall salary cap. Still, Harden comes up with a 73.3% boom score probability and lands in the optimal lineup in a full 55.8% of simulations. Harden is an absolutely critical part of the slate makeup on both sites at this point in the day, but again the public is not there. Harden turns in an extremely strong leverage score at 17.3 on DraftKings.

Across both sites, one of the most appealing plays of the season so far in terms of optimal lineup appearance rate and boom score probability also has the strongest leverage scores that we’ve seen. We’re approaching Scarecrow from The Wizard of Oz levels of no-brainer on this one.

Trey Lyles – San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings — $3,800 — PF/C | FanDuel — $4,000 — PF

The Spurs are dealing with numerous injury and absence situations at once. With Rudy Gay and Keldon Johnson both in the league’s COVID-19 protocols, and DeMar DeRozan dealing with family concerns, there have been some shakeups in the Spurs rotation over the last week, creating some interesting value plays. For tonight, we might see DeRozan return, but we could be without the currently questionable LaMarcus Aldridge, adding the frontcourt void. All of this leads to the likelihood that Trey Lyles will see increased minutes and opportunity for this game at a good price. Across all situations without Gay, Johnson and Aldridge this season, Lyles has posted a 0.79 fantasy point per minute rate, which is good but certainly not great in just a 67-minute sample. If we extend the sample to include last season, Lyles jumps to a more respectable 0.84 fantasy points per minute, putting him in play.

On DraftKings, Lyles ranks second on the board by optimal lineup appearance rate, appearing in the optimal lineup in 20.5% of simulations for the slate. He has just a 23.4 median score projection, but at his salary he will not need to do much more, and he delivers a boom score 22.6% of the time. When factoring in his public ownership we get to a strong 5.5 leverage score, meaning he is under-owned for the slate. We will likely see this change if Aldridge is confirmed out before lock, but even before that news Lyles is a strong play who would simply be rendered a more popular piece of good chalk.

On FanDuel, Lyles ranks just 14th by optimal lineup rate, coming in at 16.7%. He maintains a strong boom score probability, however, coming up with a 27.8% and he will be under-owned by a wide margin based on current numbers, popping up with a 6.3 leverage score. Lyles looks like a strong piece of building material for FanDuel lineups. Despite the lower overall totals he ranks second at the power forward position by optimal lineup rate, with Aldridge the only option ahead of him. It should be easy to determine what changes there if Aldridge doesn’t play.

I really like the way using Harden and Lyles sets us on an optimal construction path and a potentially contrarian path at the same time on both sites. Keep an eye on the leverage score as it changes toward lock though, these are likely to be more popular plays by then.


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Jordan McLaughlin

DraftKings — $3,900 — PG / FanDuel — $3,800 — PG

Minnesota is another squad that is dealing with a few significant absences. In this case, we have been dealing with the absence of D’Angelo Russell for several games now, but we now add Malik Beasley to the list of absent ‘Wolves after the league announced his 12-game suspension. Beasley has been a significant player for Minnesota this season, both from his steady presence in the lineup while others are in and out around him, and for his 23.9% season-long usage rate, 16.1% rebounding share and 13.7% assist rate. Beasley’s absence will have an impact on the lineup, though we do not currently have announced starters.

Jordan McLaughlin has seen a recent uptick in minutes, averaging over 21 across the team’s most recent five games, while his season-long mark stands around 18 minutes per game. With a slightly higher projection for time and a strong probability of picking up at least some of the additional usage, McLaughlin stands out as a strong value option on the board tonight.

On DraftKings, he slots in as an inexpensive option at the point guard, while providing a modicum of safety that we may not get from his less expensive teammate Jaylen Nowell. McLaughlin carries a 16.7% optimal lineup appearance rate and a boom score probability of 23.9% for his very low salary. He makes a strong building block for constructions that hew toward the optimal but remain contrarian as well, coming in with a 5.1 leverage score for the night. Adding him to a starting construction of Harden and Lyles keeps us on that optimal DraftKings path and builds in yet another player the public is reluctant to roster.

On FanDuel, McLaughlin is equally unpopular and nearly as optimal. We get him in 15.5% of simulations and he has a very strong 37.2% boom score probability on the site. McLaughlin will be owned at less than 10% in public lineups, pushing his leverage score to an appealing 5.8 on the blue site. He will be a part of builds unless we get news that takes him out of the picture.

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Center

One of the best positions to discuss on almost any slate, center is going to be a critical inflection point for tonight once again. On DraftKings, the issue is slightly less critical because we can roster multiple centers or – on this slate particularly – fill center requirements with value forwards who have extra eligibility. On FanDuel, things are much more strict, with just one center and no flexibility of position or price.

For tonight at least, the four top star-caliber players on whom there should be no disagreement in terms of quality all rank near the top of the board on both sites. Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic and Karl-Anthony Towns are ranked second through fifth by optimal lineup appearance rate on DraftKings, with only Trey Lyles above them at his extreme value. Lyles is a power forward on FanDuel, however, so we get those four centers from spots one through four on that site.

On the blue site, Embiid ranks atop the quartet, coming in with a 20.4% optimal lineup rate, but he will be 27.4% owned by the public, and is the second most expensive option. Nikola Vucevic lands just behind him with a 20.1% optimal rate, an 8.8 leverage score that is a full 15 points better than Embiid’s -7.0, and he has a 44.3% boom score probability for $600 less. Nikola Jokic takes up the fourth spot with Towns pushing past him in optimal lineup rate at 18.9% and boom score probability at 45.3%. Jokic is the most expensive member of the group at $10,900 but ranks fourth in the categories we care about, other than leverage score, where he provides even ownership. Vucevic is my favorite in the group, given the lack of public ownership, savings and similarity to the top play.

The plays chop up similarly, but with slightly different rates on DraftKings tonight. Towns drops to fourth with just a 12.7% optimal lineup appearance rate, while Jokic and Vucevic are very similar, with the former at 14.3% and latter at 14.5% optimal. Vucevic maintains his leverage score advantage, coming in at a 4.3 to Jokic’s -0.2, while Towns lands with a -6.9 as his $10,100 salary. Embiid ranks atop the board for his $10,300, but we are paying a heavy price to get there and we do not pick up a significant advantage as he is coming up with a -7.7 leverage score and just a 17.7% optimal lineup rate. I would own shares of each option, but will likely chase the leverage of rostering Vucevic on this site as well.

On FanDuel, the next block of centers provides some familiar names as well, with Rudy Gobert, Myles Turner, Steven Adams and Jarret Allen slotting in behind the stars. Allen has been the most relevant name recently, but his salary has climbed to $8,300 on FanDuel and he is pushed largely out of play because of it, coming up in just 5.8% of optimal lineups. Gobert leads the group with a 7.5% rate that makes it apparent just how star-stuck the center spot is on the blue site tonight. Turner and Adams look like nothing more than mix and match options for limited shares of constructions, and I would not drop below this group for a value play, there is simply not anything worth the upside sacrifice on FanDuel.

The power forwards who moonlight as centers on DraftKings give us a bit more to talk about on that site. Minnesota forward Jarred Vanderbilt has been a value play on recent slates and he pops up again here with some additional opportunity created by the Beasely suspension. Vanderbilt averages 0.97 DraftKings points per minute across all situations this season and at just $4,100 he lands in the optimal lineup in 11.2% of simulations. The public will be on him and we are still waiting on starters for the Timberwolves, but Vanderbilt looks like a solid building block as well tonight.

Joining him on that list of forwards with center appeal is Darius Bazley from Oklahoma City and, if he plays, LaMarcus Aldridge. All three forwards exceed the group of secondary centers that were listed for FanDuel in terms of their DraftKings optimal lineup appearance rate. While they are all in single digits and the primary plays should be focused on the first group of stars, there are mix and match plays available through the rest of the position. Adding center eligibility to players like Kristaps Porzingis and Julius Randle mixes them in at the same level of play as Gobert and Adams, though Jarret Allen completely implodes with his $8,400 DraftKings salary. Allen drops all the way down to just a 3.2% optimal lineup appearance rate and a 9.8% boom score probability for the hefty salary, taking him off the board.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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