NBA Optimal Lineup Leaders & Leverage Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel with Jaren Jackson | Monday, May 10

For a six-game slate, Monday’s NBA DFS action has a lot of moving parts. With numerous absences across the league, there are tremendous value spots available on the board once again, which is good because there are significant price tags on the go-to stars who are available. The fantasy slate has half of its games totaled in the 230s, with two more reaching 228. This should provide plenty of room to maneuver, even on a short slate, and lineup combinations are abundant given all the available value. With six games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall DFS basketball picks, which also provide some leverage to the field. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

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This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Jarrett Allen — Cleveland Cavaliers

DraftKings — $6,800 — C | FanDuel — $6,8,00 — C

Allen is in an interesting spot for the depleted and awful Cavaliers. He is one of the few options in the frontcourt and by far the most talented. He will start and see all the action he can handle, likely playing alongside extreme value option Dean Wade, who slots in as the go-to value power forward on both sites (Wade is also center eligible on DraftKings). Allen has big upside averaging 1.09 fantasy point per minute across all situations this season. Plus, he has had monster ceiling games in the right situation in the past. There is also the chance that heavy-usage guard Collin Sexton sits as well, which would thrust even more potential usage in Allen’s direction.

For just $6,800 on DraftKings, Allen has a 29.9% boom-score probability that is second among centers to only Wade as a value play. Allen appears in the optimal lineup in 23.8% of simulated slates for the site, and the public is around level in how their 24.0% projected ownership compares to the frequency with which he is in that spot. He is an appealing play given the potential for upside, though Wade’s 12.7 leverage score and positional flexibility offer far more NBA DFS upside in general. Rostering both Cavaliers is absolutely a consideration, and likely a strong move, on this slate.

On FanDuel, it is Allen who stands out for a lack of public ownership. He lands in the optimal lineup in 27.4% of simulated slates for the singular-center site. Allen has a 42.4% boom-score probability for the same $6,800 against a higher cap on the blue site, adding to his appeal. The public’s 21.6% ownership is not insignificant but still trails the optimal rate and leaves the Allen with a very appealing 5.8 leverage score. This is an excellent spot to land for center shares on this slate.


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Russell Westbrook — Washington Wizards

DraftKings — $11,000 — PG | FanDuel — $12,400 — PG

Westbrook has debatable value for real-life basketball success, but there is no arguing with him as one of the absolute apex options for NBA DFS purposes. Westbrook has been stamping out triple-doubles with regularity this season — he is already the Wizards’ all-time leader despite playing only 61 games for the franchise. His price is way up across the industry, but in a game without Bradley Beal, there is the possibility that Westbrook may simply take every shot tonight, which is only minor hyperbole. He will be carrying the load for the Wizards tonight. While a few potential assists may disappear with his star wingman out, the probability is that everything else will increase. Westbrook has a strong chance of paying off even these high salaries with a monster total. He averages 1.52 fantasy points per minute in games without Beal this season.

On FanDuel, Westbrook ranks 13th overall with a 20.6% optimal-lineup rate at a season-high $12,400 salary. The site simply cannot keep up with his production, and he still has a 23.3% boom-score probability on even that heavy cost. Westbrook will be popular — the field is getting to him at a 26.2% clip that leaves a -5.6 leverage score. Still, there is such a significant chance of a mandatory raw point total that it seems to make sense to press well beyond the field’s exposure. Of the 12 players ranked ahead of Westbrook by optimal-lineup rate on FanDuel, only two are point guards: Damian Lillard (24.6%) and Trae Young (26.1%), who will be negatively leveraged but to a lesser degree. Neither is projected for a raw points total within 10 of Westbrook’s mark.

On DraftKings, Westbrook is more of a no-brainer option that can be plugged and played. His $11,000 is simply too low a salary; Westbrook lands in the optimal lineup in 41.5% of simulated slates, which is rare air for a salary this high. He has a 41.5% boom-score probability and will be at 45.2% public ownership. Though that mark is slightly outpacing Westbrook’s probability of being in the optimal lineup, this is certainly a spot at which gamers can exceed the field’s ownership and not sweat the negative leverage.

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Jaren Jackson Jr. — Memphis Grizzlies

DraftKings — $6,000 — PF | FanDuel — $5,500 — PF

Jackson makes his first appearance in this space just before the 2021 season comes to a close. He made it back to the rotation 11 games ago, playing in eight games since. Jackson has averaged 22.5 minutes per game over that stretch, peaking at 25:41 in the team’s most recent game against Toronto. He has been third on the team with 15.0 real points per game in the small sample since his return while leading the team with a 26.9% usage rate. Jackson has added a 24.3% rebounding clip but just an 8.0% assist share in the sample, creating 1.25 fantasy points per minute. That rate is strong for the low prices, and it has explosive upside when considering the 29.3-minute projection from Awesemo tonight.

On the DraftKings slate, Jackson costs $6,000 and will be owned by just 12.6% of the public in the late-afternoon update. This trails the 25.5% optimal-lineup rate dramatically, which will make Jackson a standout play on the slate if it holds up approaching lock. Jackson has a 27.5% boom-score probability, and he makes for an excellent play at a low cost.

At just $5,500, Jackson is also highly valuable on the FanDuel slate. He has a 27.1% optimal lineup appearances rate and will be under-owned, with the public leaving a 3.9 leverage score. At the low cost, Jackson has a monster 47.2% boom-score probability; there is extreme upside and a high probability of a mandatory ceiling score. With positive leverage on top of those factors, Jackson looks like one of the prime plays on the FanDuel slate tonight.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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