NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

The final Friday of the NBA DFS season is here and it brings an eight-game slate of daily fantasy basketball action to sate our pre-playoffs appetites. With a few things yet to be decided in the NBA’s convoluted playoff system, there should be some good competition alongside some of the games with teams who have simply given up on the year. The highly-ranked NBA DFS picks available range from the priciest possible star to bargain basement scrubs on this slate, making for an interestingly shaped contest. With only the Clippers vs Rockets game reaching even a 225 total in Vegas we are hunting for the right opportunities for production at positive leverage. With eight games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall fantasy basketball picks on the boom/bust tool. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

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This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Russell Westbrook — Washington Wizards

DraftKings — $12,800 — PG | FanDuel — $12,500 — PG

The answer is, no price is too high. With Westbrook’s explosive NBA DFS upside on every slate he is simply a luxury item for which we have to assume we are allocating a massive share of our available money, without much visible downside to the decision. The Wizards point guard simply stands alone at the very peak of potential production on this slate, given the lack of a viable wingman as Bradley Beal continues to sit. In 231 minutes without Beal since April 15, Westbrook has a monster 1.62 fantasy point per minute rate, he is doing everything well pulling down triple-doubles with regularity, and he is a go-to option once again tonight.

On the DraftKings slate, Westbrook ranks second overall with a 44% optimal lineup appearance rate despite what might be the highest salary we have seen on the site all season. The point guard has a 24.7% boom score probability and a raw fantasy point projection of 66. Westbrook is explosively popular on the site, pulling in a 66.4% ownership projection despite the incredibly high salary. This creates a major decision point, with Westbrook at a -22.9 leverage score there is ground to be gained should he bust, but at the strong positive indicators that seems the less likely result. Taking the path alongside and beyond the field seems to still be the correct approach, and there is plenty of value on the board to help us get to the superstar tonight.

Westbrook is the leading option on the FanDuel slate, coming in with a 55.7% optimal lineup appearance rate. He has a 31.9% boom score probability that defies expectation when we consider the whopping $12,500 salary. The point guard will be extremely popular on this slate as well, he has a 64.8% public ownership projection which would leave us at a -9.1 leverage score. When we consider the requirement to play two point guards on the site it seems silly to even consider a Westbrook fade, despite the overwhelming popularity. There is simply too much downside in leaving the point guard on the shelf tonight, roster him and get different elsewhere.

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Jordan Poole — Golden State Warriors

DraftKings — $4,100 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $5,000 — PG

The Warriors will be without all of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, as well as the litany of players who were already missing in action. This situation should thrust Poole into a massive opportunity, losing Green and Curry takes both of the Warriors primary facilitators off the floor, while the Curry and Wiggins pair are usage leaders. In just 35 minutes played without the trio since April 15, Poole put up a 1.00 fantasy point per minute mark. He will be underpriced for the potential tonight.

On FanDuel, Poole lands eighth overall and second among point guards with a 24.7% optimal lineup appearance rate. He is priced up slightly at $5,000 but there is plenty of upside at that number and the opportunity the player is in, Poole has a 51.7% boom score probability despite the higher-than-expected salary. The public seems uncomfortable paying full freight for the guard, leaving Poole with a solid 7.10 leverage score against just 17.6% public popularity. This appears to be an exploitable angle on the blue site tonight.

On DraftKings, Poole is the top-ranked player in optimal lineup appearance rate, leading even Westbrook’s mark in the category at a massive 56.1%. Poole costs just $4,100 on the slate and fits in at either guard spot, giving him immense utility and upside for minimal investment. He will be far more popular on the site, coming in with a wildly high 79% public ownership share that leaves him with a -22.9 leverage score. Given the high frequency with which we find him optimal and the 71.1% probability of a ceiling score, there is still plenty of reason to roster Poole on the site. Getting him alongside Westbrook is both highly optimal and highly owned, it is simply good chalk despite the weighty ownership.

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JaMychal Green — Denver Nuggets

DraftKings — $3,600 — PF | FanDuel — $3,500 — PF

DraftKings owners desperate to offset some popularity from the previous two plays can take heart, this one has some positive leverage on the site. The Nuggets have been playing shorthanded in recent weeks and will be without all of Facundo Campazzo, Paul Millsap, Michael Porter, PJ Dozier, Will Barton and Jamal Murray at least once again tonight. Green averages only 19.2 minutes per game, but is projected for 29.7 tonight, creating a total mismatch with his salaries across the industry. A 0.88 fantasy point per minute producer across all situations this season, Green will have opportunity to do more and play more tonight, making him a good bargain at positive leverage on both sites.

On the DraftKings slate, Green slots in at $3,600 as a power forward, coming up 24.3% of the time in the optimal lineup in simulated contests. That would rank Green seventh overall on the slate and third at power forward. He has a 45.3% boom score probability against his value pricing and the public is trailing the play, leaving a 3.5 leverage score that looks highly appealing by comparison at this altitude on the board. Green is a great option to offset some popularity and get some salary savings with production upside, making him a sharp GPP play tonight.

The power forward is looking like a spectacular option on the FanDuel slate. He is in the optimal lineup in 24.1% of simulated slates but the field is leaving him at just 11.6% ownership despite the minimum salary listing. This is a mistake. Green has an excellent 12.5 leverage score and a 53.7% boom score probability with a 26.5 raw fantasy point projection. Again, this is a minimum-salary player, if the field does not catch up Green is a virtual value lock on the slate.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.