NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

The seven-game Monday slate of games has value plays galore and several stars in excellent spots that can hopefully make for some salary savings. The lineups are coming together in interesting ways across sites tonight, and there is little time to spend on introductions on a busy sports day. With seven games on the slate, the focus will primarily be on the top overall plays on the board. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

Join AWESEMO+ today!

Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Kenrich Williams — Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings — $5,100 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $4,700 — SF

Williams finds himself relevant for tonight’s NBA DFS slate given a 37.3-minute projection in Awesemo’s most recent update. With the bulk of the Thunder roster either on the shelf for sure, or doubtful at best, Williams seems a likely candidate to hit that mark. Williams has produced 0.85 fantasy points per minute through the season across all situations and will be in line for more opportunity in this spot. That mark jumps to a 1.06 per-minute rate across situations without tonight’s specific set of teammates on the floor.

Williams stands out atop the FanDuel board, where he costs just $4,700 and fills a valuable small forward spot with quality. He is in the optimal lineup in 57.6% of simulations, a massive share for the statistic. Williams’ low salary has him pulling down a 68.8% boom-score probability. He will basically have to show up and not trip over center court to make value tonight. The public seems well behind the play despite a 38.4% ownership share. Williams is at a 19.2 leverage score in the later afternoon, suggesting there is significant upside and advantage to rostering him on the blue site.

The story is the same on DraftKings, where Williams picks up guard eligibility and significant utility. He costs more on the site, but it hardly impacts his rates. Williams lands in the optimal lineup 47.0% of the time, second only to Jordan McLaughlin, who will be covered in a moment. Williams has a 51.4% boom-score probability and a robust 22.4 leverage score against a lower raw ownership total than what he was receiving on the other side of the industry. There is a ton of appeal in this play on both sites, and Williams should be a big part of plans at these rates.

[STARTING9]

Jordan McLaughlin — Minnesota Timberwolves

DraftKings — $4,400 — PG | FanDuel — $4,600 — PG

A point guard and only a point guard on both sites, McLaughlin is coming up as one of the better value plays in the industry for tonight’s slate of daily fantasy basketball contests. He will be thrust into primary duties once again with veteran teammate Ricky Rubio sidelined, though the team is getting D’Angelo Russell back, which could throw a wrench into plans. Still, McLaughlin is reliable, averaging 0.87 fantasy points per minute, and he is a viable low-cost option in these circumstances.

On the DraftKings slate McLaughlin leads the way by optimal-lineup rate at a whopping 53.1%. He carries a 58.4% boom-score probability and is simply the leading play on the slate in terms of value. McLaughlin is very good chalk in this situation, and everyone should get above the field on him. He has a 16.1 leverage score that means there is plenty of room to extend for him.

On FanDuel McLaughlin ranks as the second-best play, with a 45.1% optimal-lineup rate and a huge 11.1 leverage score. He has a huge 64.8% boom-score probability, so there is strong leverage and a massive opportunity for upside here. McLaughlin is an easy second click on the site, slotting two extreme values in with positive leverage if used immediately after Kenrich Williams.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Karl-Anthony Towns

DraftKings — $10,600 — C | FanDuel — $11,000 – C

Towns stands above the other options on today’s slate at his position given a plus-plus matchup against the Kings. Towns produces 1.40 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, 1.44 without Malik Beasley on the floor. He is a standout at his position on both sites tonight, well worth the pay-up cost.

On FanDuel Towns ranks fifth by optimal-lineup rate. He slots in as the prime center in 30.9% of simulated contests, by far the highest in the one-center field. He is expensive at $11,000, but the 27.3% boom-score probability gives plenty of room between head and ceiling, and he will be owned at a 0.70 leverage clip. Gamers can comfortably double up the field and get to 60% Towns on the blue site.

On the DraftKings slate Towns has a 27.8% optimal-lineup rate, though he slips into slightly negative leverage territory at -1.0. This is fine, as DFSers can push well beyond the field’s projected 28.8% ownership share. He is priced appropriately at $10,600, but there is room for upside. Towns has a 26.4% boom-score probability, though the marks on Detroit’s Isaiah Stewart are higher as a value option at the position on this site (he is a high-end power forward on FanDuel). Getting to Towns alongside the other value plays, or even baking him in right next to Stewart in a two-center configuration, seems like a strong approach to tonight’s NBA DFS slate.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more optimized daily fantasy basketball picks content? We have loads of daily fantasy basketball picks articles, data, DraftKings, and FanDuel daily fantasy basketball picks cheat sheets, and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.