NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

With a nice robust 10-game slate on the board on Friday night, NBA DFS fans have a lot more to work with in building out daily fantasy basketball lineups. There are interesting games throughout the night, though only one game has a true standout game total in Vegas. The Pelicans and Wizards are slated for a frenetic sprint of a contest, with a 242.5 total and just a 2.5-point spread. There should be plenty of NBA DFS picks from that game, but gamers will need to spread, out as they will likely be getting attention as well. With low totals in most of the other games, the Trail Blazers – Spurs game stands out for its second-highest total of 235.5. Getting to a mix of players from both games is an interesting foundation from which to build. With 10 games on the slate, this article will be focused primarily on the top overall plays. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Isaiah Stewart — Detroit Pistons

DraftKings — $4,400 — C | FanDuel — $4,800 — PF

Stewart frustratingly fits in at just one position on each site, and those aren’t the same position. Still, he stands out across the industry for his potential for upside at very low pricing. With several Pistons on the shelf on Friday on the first game of a back-to-back, including center Mason Plumlee, Stewart should have every opportunity to put up a ceiling score against his low cost. Stewart averages 0.95 fantasy points per minute across all situations and will have significant room for more.

On the FanDuel slate, Stewart is a power forward. He slots in with the second-highest optimal-lineup rate overall, coming in with a 34.4% probability. Stewart will be extremely popular. He has a slate-worst -10.4 leverage score and will be in nearly 45% of all public lineups. Still, Stewart appears to be more a foundational piece than a player to avoid. He has a massive 62.3% boom-score probability that is well ahead of the competition at the position and across the blue site.

On DraftKings, Stewart is a center at a discount. With just a $4,400 price tag, he has a 55.9% boom-score probability that is at the top of the board in that category. Stewart leads the field, appearing in the optimal lineup in 30.4% of simulated slates. Stewart has an excellent raw point projection and will be at a -5.6 leverage score that is acceptable with this level of upside. Rostering Stewart on his own at the position, or alongside one of the other high-upside center options, is an interesting way to start a lineup.

Fred VanVleet — Toronto Raptors

DraftKings — $7,900 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $7,400 — SG

As has been discussed through the season, the Raptors’ three star-ish players tend to cannibalize one another’s fantasy production when playing together, or they take turns producing upside games, which become difficult to predict. They are better options for NBA DFS purposes when the daily fantasy basketball sites misprice them, or when one or more of them are out. The latter is the case for Fred VanVleet, which leads him into the former, he is underpriced given the fact that he will be most of the Raptors’ offense tonight. VanVleet stands out as an excellent play from the top of the board on both sites.

On the DraftKings slate, VanVleet is the third ranked option, appearing in the optimal lineup in 26.1% of simulations for the slate. He can be rostered for $7,900 at either guard spot, giving him additional flexibility and utility throughout lineup constructions. VanVleet has significant upside in this situation and for this salary. He comes up with a 29.5% boom-score probability that stands out among guards. The play is not a secret, but with just 21% of the public on him, gamers can extend well beyond the field for a tremendous upside play. VanVleet has an appealing 5.1 leverage score that we want to chase.

There is much to love on the FanDuel slate as well. VanVleet costs just $7,400, an absolute bargain for the expected production. He leads all players with his 34.8% optimal-lineup rate and will be owned to just a -1.0 leverage score, leaving him very much in play. VanVleet is by far the top shooting guard option on the slate, leading the more expensive Bradley Beal by nearly 8 percentage points in optimal-lineup rate. VanVleet has a 44.8% boom-score probability and should be rostered beyond the field’s 35.8% mark as things currently stand.

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Kevin Durant — Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings — $9,400 — PF | FanDuel — $9,300 — SF

Durant is a wild card on tonight’s slate. Durant has been in and out of the lineup as he claws his way back to health. He saw 27.2 minutes in the team’s most recent game, scoring 31 real-life points while going 11-for-15 from the field and 4-for-6 from 3. He added four rebounds and four assists to pad out a nice fantasy scoring night, but the minutes limitation caps the overall upside on what is still a fairly expensive player, though inexpensive for him. If Durant manages to see beyond the 30-minute mark, he could have major upside at a discount relative to his talents. The Nets will remain without James Harden, so Durant and Kyrie Irving will be their primary focus on offense.

On the DraftKings slate, Durant lands in the optimal lineup in just 5.4% of simulated slates. He has a 6.1% boom-score probability against his $9,400 salary and 29.7 minute playing time projection. The upside is limited based on the minutes potential, and there are warning signs in the boom score, but Durant will have a little leverage with his 3.8 score. He is not entirely off the board.

On FanDuel, Durant is slightly more interesting. He is in the optimal lineup in 11.6% of simulated slates, while he carries a more respectable 13.1% boom-score probability for the money at the small forward position. Durant has just a 4.2% ownership share, leaving him with a significant leverage score at 7.4. This play is trying to thread a very specific needle, but it will be easy enough to exceed the field, and there is potential in rostering a superstar at a discount.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.