NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

With a lot of chalk coming through on the NBA DFS slate last night, there was some congestion near the top of standings, helping emphasize the need to create diverse sets of lineups that capture a broad range of outcomes and are less likely to be duplicated by the field. With an exciting looking nine-game slate ahead, there should be abundant opportunities to do precisely that with lineup construction tonight. The slate has strong options that are going significantly under-owned tonight, making several plays stand out on the boom/bust board. With nine games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall plays, which mostly double as the best-leveraged on the slate. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium NBA DFS Big Board.***

NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Get 2 Risk-Free Bets Up To $2,000!

Delon Wright — Sacramento Kings

DraftKings — $5,600 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $5,200 — PG

Wright will be in exactly the same situation that saw him deliver a tremendous 60 fantasy points just last night. The matchup against the Pacers is excellent, coming in with the second-highest total in Vegas so far. Wright was written up in this space just yesterday, so please refer back for any overall notes about situational per-minute production.

For tonight’s DraftKings slate, Wright ranks as the No. 2 option in the optimal-lineup rate column with a 40.2% probability of landing in the best lineup. Wright is an excellent option across both guard positions and carries a 53.6% boom-score probability into this one despite seeing a $400 increase in salary overnight. He is going under-owned for his upside, and even for his median projection he has an excellent 5.8 leverage score on the slate and should be rostered with frequency in all formats.

On the blue site, Wright stands atop the board by optimal-lineup rate, landing in the slate’s best construction an appealing 57.6% of the time, making him an easy first click in virtually every construction. Wright will be owned by the public. He is coming in with a 62.0% ownership projection that will likely increase as we head into lock. This does not take much off the top of the play. Wright’s current leverage score is a -4.4 that can still be rostered beyond the field. Even a 100% share at the point guard spot on FanDuel would not be out of the question tonight. He has a 72.0% boom-score probability on the site and is an obvious but necessary play off the top unless something changes dramatically in the early evening.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Kevin Porter Jr. and Kenyon Martin Jr.

DraftKings — $7,700 — PG & $3,900 – PF | FanDuel — $6,900 – SF & $4,700 – PF

The pair of Rockets are worth discussing in tandem, as they sit next to one another on the board on one site and are both strong options on the other. The Rockets will be without a multitude of players once again. Most importantly, Christian Wood is doubtful and Jae’Sean Tate is out, while John Wall, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Sterling Brown, David Nwaba, Dante Exum and Chris Clemons all remain sidelined. With just eight healthy bodies in the lineup, all of the Rockets will have heavy lifting to do in their game against the 76ers, but Porter and Martin stand out above the field.

Porter appears in the optimal FanDuel lineup 50.1% of the time, while Martin comes up as the optimal power forward in 46.9% of simulations, ranking the teammates second and third on the board in the category. They are playable together at the salaries, Porter has a 57.5% boom-score probability and Martin lands at a gigantic 66.0%, there is obvious upside and they will not have to do much beyond their median projections to pay off the cost. Of the pair, Porter looks like the stronger play, given a 16.5 leverage score, while Martin is more popular and has a -5.9 in the category, though at a lower salary he is likely to be an important building block when we find him so frequently optimal. It is worth rostering both Rockets players heavily in this spot, together and individually.

The plays rate similarly on the DraftKings slate, though it is Martin who ascends to the very top of optimal-lineup appearances, posting a 53.5%. Porter falls to third on the site, coming up as Awesemo’s optimal point guard 33.6% of the time given a higher salary at $7,700. He is still a strong upside play. Porter averages 1.00 DraftKings points per minute across all situations this season, and he will have his hands full tonight. Porter has a 41.6% boom-score probability, though that mark pales in comparison to the 70.8% carried by Martin at just $3,900. The field will be on Martin; he is in 55.6% of public lineups in early projections, giving him a -2.1 leverage score that is not worth worrying about. Martin has major upside for the price and is a fundamental building block of constructions on the site. Porter offers major upside as well, and he stands out for the 18.6 leverage score the public is leaving on the table. Porter is in just 15.0% of public lineups in Awesemo’s afternoon update, far less than he should be. Getting to him at least twice the field makes sense, and pushing past that mark has upside as well.

Get a risk free bet + 2 months FREE of Awesemo+ platinum all-access!

Robert Williams — Boston Celtics

DraftKings — $5,400 — C | FanDuel — $5,400 — C

Williams is underpriced and under-owned on both sites tonight. Since the trade deadline, Williams has led the Celtics with 1.31 fantasy points per minute across all situations. Boston is expected to be without Jaylen Brown tonight, which boosts Williams to a 1.36 rate. Center Tristan Thompson is questionable, which keeps Williams at a 1.36 over 101 minutes since the deadline. There is plenty of upside in the player given the lengthy run he would receive in that situation, and the public is not getting to him enough on DraftKings or on FanDuel.

The FanDuel slate has just one center spot available, as always. Williams lands in that spot in the best lineup in 30.7% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, leading the position. The second-highest-rated center in the category is superstar Joel Embiid, who slots into the optimal lineup just 10.4% of the time. For the low cost and significant upside, Williams has a 70.9% boom-score probability and is going under-owned by the public at just 23.8%. He has a 6.9 leverage score and should be rostered double or triple the field while leaving some room for the stars at the position.

On the DraftKings slate, Williams is in the optimal lineup 33.2% of the time and has a 10.4 leverage score. The public is simply missing Williams on the site. Williams has a 51.8% boom-score probability that sits third overall on the site. The public will have him at just a 22.8% clip as of the afternoon update, leaving plenty of room to load up on an excellent play at the center spot. On DraftKings gamers can easily roster the $5,400 salary alongside the star-caliber centers, adding to the appeal.

Make sure to check out our trio of NBA shows leading you up to lock!

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

[NBAPAGE]

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.