NBA Optimal Lineup Leaders & Leverage Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel with Kyrie Irving | Wednesday, April 14

The Wednesday slate is rapidly heading toward lock, so in the words of the minister from “Spaceballs,” we’re going to do “the short-short version” and skip most of the intro. There are 11 games on the slate, and we will look at top overall plays. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Kyrie Irving — Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings — $9,800 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $9,900 — PG

On the second day of a back-to-back set, following yesterday’s oddly scheduled afternoon makeup game against the Timberwolves, the Nets will be resting superstar Kevin Durant for the slate, which should thrust Irving into extreme relevance for NBA DFS purposes tonight — assuming Irving shows up for the game at all. He is currently questionable after being away from the team for another personal issue. The team made the odd choice of playing Durant against the lowly Timberwolves instead of saving him for the rival 76ers, and now the load will fall on Irving’s shoulders. For the season, the point guard has a 1.29 fantasy point per minute rate. When  playing without his superstar teammates that jumps to a 1.47 mark.

On the DraftKings slate, Irving has utility between both guard spots, and he stands as one of the higher-rated options at both positions. Irving’s 17.9% optimal-lineup rate ranks him eighth overall on the slate, while his boom-score probability of 25.3% checks in at the same level. Irving is expensive but well worth the pay-up. The field is with the play on this site — Irving has a -2.5 leverage score — but there should be room to chase the upside despite several other interesting players on the slate.

On the FanDuel side, Irving pops as the second-most frequently optimal on the entire slate at 21.6%. He has a strong leverage score. The public is behind the curve on this play to the tune of a 6.2, making it wildly different exposure levels across sites. Rostering Irving at the point guard spot is a great way to get different and stay on the optimal construction path on the blue site tonight. He has a terrific 34.2% boom-score probability and nothing but appeal.

Russell Westbrook — Washington Wizards

DraftKings — $11,000 — PG | FanDuel — $11,200 — PG

Regardless of whether he’s playing alongside his start teammate Bradley Beal, Westbrook has returned to his status as a dominant force in daily fantasy basketball. The point guard has averaged 1.43 fantasy points per minute through all situations this season, averaging around a triple-double, and earning every bit of his more than $11,000 salary on both sites. Westbrook is an excellent pay-up option who is positively leveraged across the board.

On FanDuel, Westbrook has a 19.3% optimal-lineup rate that ranks him sixth overall on the entire slate despite the massive price tag. He has an excellent 31.6% boom-score probability, which is ridiculous potential for upside from such a pricey player. The public will be straggling on this play as well. Westbrook comes in with a very appealing leverage mark at 6.9 and his 12.4% raw public exposure will be able to exceed easily.

On DraftKings, Westbrook has a 19.2% optimal-lineup rate, ranking him fourth on the entire slate and third among guards. He has a 29.7% boom-score probability but less versatility than Irving, who is eligible at shooting guard as well. Westbrook has a 1.6 leverage score that can be exploited as well. He will be owned by 17.6% of the public, a number that should be easy to exceed on this site as well.


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Ivica Zubac — Los Angeles Clippers

DraftKings — $5,400 — C | FanDuel — $5,100 — C

One of the value plays on the board is the most frequently optimal center on both sites and a top play overall. Zubac pops out on the slate and should see increased opportunity given the dearth of NBA talent when this team is missing several key players, as they are prepared to do tonight. Zubac should have every chance to shine at these prices. He is averaging 1.0 fantasy point per minute and is projected for nearly 30 minutes of playing time, making him very slate-relevant.

On DraftKings, Zubac slots in as a center only, pulling in a 21.2% optimal-lineup rate that ranks second to only Reggie Jackson on the slate. Zubac comes up with a 32.6% boom-score probability, and while he will be owned, he has slightly positive leverage at 0.80. By lock that might trend negative, but Zubac should still be rostered in excess of the field given the potential for upside.

On FanDuel, Zubac slots in as the optimal play at his position despite the singular center requirement. He has an 18.4% optimal-lineup rate that outstrips all other options at the center spot and he carries a slate-leading 51.7% boom-score probability. Zubac will be popular at his low price, but there are clear reasons to push beyond the 23.4% slate exposure mark despite a wealth of options. The -5.0 leverage score is noteworthy, but not overly concerning, provided salary savings are spent wisely.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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