NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

The massive NBA DFS slate on Wednesday is an onion with a thousand layers to be peeled. There are superstars and super-scrubs who will be incredibly relevant to daily fantasy basketball GPP success on this one, with a wide range of players in the middle to parse for value. Finding the right combination of upside and leverage is critical on a slate like this. With 12 games on the slate, this article will focus on the top-end plays on the boom/bust tool. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Goga Bitadze — Indiana Pacers

DraftKings — $4,200 — C | FanDuel — $5,400 — C

Bitadze has been thrust into NBA and daily fantasy basketball relevance by the injury to big men Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. Bitadze himself is questionable for tonight, dealing with lingering pain from an ankle injury suffered Monday. Bitadze drew the start in this situation in that contest, playing 23 minutes before leaving the game. He scored 7 real points and pulled down nine rebounds, adding a massive five blocks. Bitadze averages 1.23 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. He has massive upside if he plays and gets anything like full starters minutes.

On the DraftKings slate, Bitadze ranks as the most frequently optimal play at any position, and it is not particularly close. Bitadze has a 36.3% optimal-lineup rate on the site. That outpaces the next-closest contender by more than 16 percentage points. There is no reason to avoid Bitadze on this site; he is cheap at $4,200 and has a 66.9% boom-score probability while coming in at just 35.6% public ownership on a site that does not restrict one center. This is a fundamental building block and should be a part of most DraftKings builds, assuming he plays.

The story changes somewhat on FanDuel there is only get one bite at the center apple. Bitadze still looks like a strong play but is not nearly as frequently optimal as he is on the other side of town. He lands with a 13.3% optimal-lineup rate, good for 11th best on the FanDuel slate overall and still tops among centers. Bitadze’s $5,400 price tag is doing little to curb his upside. He leads the blue site slate with a 59.3% boom-score probability, more than 16 percentage points ahead of runner-up Hassan Whiteside for the same salary and at the same position. Whiteside is currently at a -6.9 leverage score to Bitadze’s 5.9 mark. The only thing in question with the play is Bitadze’s status; if he goes, go.

R.J. Barrett — New York Knicks

DraftKings — $6,300 — SF | FanDuel — $5,800 — SF

Barrett stands out on the board for having surprisingly negative leverage for a player who is not an extremely appealing option in the other metrics. He will be popular given potential for slightly more attention with Alec Burks in medical protocols. This is more of an issue on one site but applies to both, as Barrett finds himself both overpriced and over-owned on the DraftKings slate. He has made strides this season, but he has put up just 0.87 fantasy points per minute across all situations. In an uptempo matchup against the Hawks, he is in a good spot. The FanDuel price is not bad, but the public exposure on such a large slate makes it easy to consider other options.

On DraftKings, Barrett costs $6,300 at the small forward and lands in the optimal lineup in just 5.5% of simulated slates. He will be at a -3.7 leverage score and a low 8.9% boom-score probability against this salary, and he is simply not displaying the upside worthy of chasing, even up to where the public currently is projected. Barrett is fine to mix into some lineups, but he is not looking like someone to go out of the way for, and an undercut to the public’s exposure seems sound.

FanDuel owners are far too excited about Barrett and the seeming discount at just $5,800. He is drawing a -13.6 leverage score on the slate against an 11.4% probability of being in the optimal lineup. That mark lands Barrett 16th overall on the slate, but with this many options for NBA DFS picks, gamers can easily look to other small forward choices. Barrett has just a 20.4% boom-score probability, he does not pop for significant value despite the lower salary. Getting to a few shares of him is fine, but approaching the public’s exposure seems inadvisable in this spot.

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Luka Doncic — Dallas Mavericks

DraftKings — $10,800 — PG/SF | FanDuel — $11,000 — PG

With money to spend given some obvious value spots on the board, there should be no real difficulty rostering Doncic in a fair share of daily fantasy basketball lineup constructions tonight. Doncic is simply one of the best players in the league and is an easy choice for DFS purposes on essentially any slate. Approaching decisions in a vacuum like that is, of course, a flawed way to look at DFS. Instead, consider the salary, popularity, upside and options at the position, as well as what the salary spend does to the ability to roster upside plays at other positions. When considering all of these factors, it still seems justifiable to roster Doncic and his 1.47 fantasy points per minute on both sites.

On FanDuel, Doncic ranks 13th overall, landing in the optimal lineup in 13.2% of simulated slates. That ranks Doncic behind three other point guards on the slate, and he costs more than all of them, which is why he has a 7.0 leverage score while all three of the others are negatively leveraged, bottoming out at -7.8. Doncic is separated from the leader in the category at the position by 7 percentage points, but he is only 3 below the runner-up, leveling out the play in a hurry. With a 22.9% boom-score probability that also compares favorably, it makes sense to spend up to be contrarian with a player of this caliber. Doncic will be owned by only 6.2% of the public, an easy mark to exceed.

On the DraftKings slate, Doncic’s eligibility at the small forward spot in addition to point guard offers utility. The play looks like a standout, as Doncic lands in the optimal lineup in 18.4% of simulated slates while carrying a 1.6 leverage score. The public is closer to the play on DraftKings, but there appears to be a bit of room, and the overall 16.8% exposure is an easy mark to double. Doncic has a 20.5% boom-score probability on a high DraftKings salary. That he is this frequently optimal on the slate — fourth overall — is a testament to his true upside. Rostering Doncic in this situation has tremendous appeal, and exceeding the field on DraftKings would be a sharp play.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.