NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

A busy eight-game Tuesday NBA DFS slate creates some excellent spots for daily fantasy basketball action. The slate is loaded with value, and there are a few standout stars in what look to be excellent spots and high-octane matchups. With eight games on the slate, the focus will primarily be on the top overall plays on the board. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Saben Lee — Detroit Pistons

DraftKings — $3,900 — PG | FanDuel — $4,100 — PG

With a 24.1-minute projection from Awesemo for tonight’s slate, Lee is in a very interesting value spot given his pricing on both sites. Lee has been productive in his limited opportunities through the season, putting up 0.92 fantasy points per minute in just 15.7 minutes per game and with 17% usage. Lee has upside in this spot and provides a good pivot point from teammate Josh Jackson, who is in a similar situation but drawing far more attention.

On FanDuel Lee ranks fifth by optimal-lineup rate, coming in at 23.4%, while Jackson slots in at the top spot with a 30.4% mark. The delta between them is not gigantic, but Jackson will be owned by 22.6% of the field compared to Lee’s miniscule 4.4% ownership share. That creates a massive 19.0 leverage score on the Lee play and makes him one of the standout values on the slate, particularly when considering his 22.4% boom-score probability on a median projection that is already most of the way to meeting his required ceiling score. There is a lot to like about this low-owned play, and it will be easy enough to leverage up on the field.

On the DraftKings slate the play comes in slightly cheaper and with similar marks across the board. It is actually Jackson who takes a hit to his viability, considering the price increase from site to site. Lee retains his value, putting up a 20.3% optimal-lineup rate and a healthy 15.9 leverage score. He has a ton of value for the salary and will not have to do much beyond showing up. His 17.7% boom-score probability is one of the better marks on the slate and certainly the best among the pure value plays.

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Marcus Smart — Boston Celtics

DraftKings — $5,600 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $5,500 — SG

With Evan Fournier slated to miss Tuesday’s game against the 76ers, Smart should be in his traditional role alongside the team’s big three for full run. Awesemo has him projected for 36 minutes of action, and he has attractive value from the midrange price tier on both sites. The 0.92 fantasy points per minute are appealing, though Smart’s price tag is pushing him into negatively leveraged territory.

On DraftKings Smart slots in at both guard positions and looks like an excellent utility play with that flexibility, and his propensity for landing in the optimal lineup. Smart takes that role in 18.3% of simulations for the DraftKings slate, and the field is only getting to him to the tune of -1.1 leverage, a mark to push past for a play that looks solid. Smart has a 17.1% boom-score probability that is suggestive of the available upside, and he fits into valuable spots in the most likely optimal constructions.

On the blue site Smart looks like an excellent play, but he looks that way to most of the field as well. He will be the second-most negatively leveraged play on the board at a -11.8, which begins to make him an uncomfortable roster despite the strong 23.2% optimal-lineup rate. Smart ranks third among eligible shooting guards, but there are players around him, including Jackson, Zach LaVine and DeAndre’ Bembry, the last of which is the most negatively leveraged player on the slate. Ultimately it makes sense to roster Smart and his 30.5% boom-score probability, but undercutting the field in favor of Jackson and LaVine seems viable.

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Robert Williams — Boston Celtics

DraftKings — $6,800 — C | FanDuel — $7,300 — C

Speaking of the Celtics, their big man in the middle stands out on this slate as well. Williams has seized the center role in Boston and is not giving it back any time soon, Tristan Thompson or no Tristan Thompson. Projected for 29 minutes tonight and seemingly underpriced across the industry, he is in an excellent spot to shine, though a direct matchup with Joel Embiid is always daunting.

On DraftKings Williams looks like the top available center play. He lands like a superhero with a 20.1% optimal-lineup rate against a 6.3 leverage score, and the public is way behind on this one on DraftKings. Williams has a 37.9 raw point projection and a 25.7% boom-score probability. There is reason to roster him for the median projection alone at this price, with both upside and leverage he becomes something of a no-brainer play.

On the FanDuel slate Williams is brought slightly back to Earth by a higher salary and the limitations of the singular center, but he still looks like the best play at the position. Williams slots into the optimal lineup in 16.7% of simulated FanDuel slates, leading the position. He is projected for a 40.1 raw point total and comes in with a nearly matching boom-score probability of 39.1%. He has immense upside for an affordable price, but the public is reluctant to roster him, leaving a hefty 7.1 leverage score that makes Williams the best center play on the slate and an easy click at the position.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.