NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

Tuesday night brings us a relatively tame looking six game slate in terms of real life basketball, but for daily fantasy basketball it could be another scoring bonanza. The slate features a ton of value from several low-totaled games and two games with big potential totaled well into the 230s. Getting to some of the less popular value plays and rostering them alongside the right high-scoring stars is going to be the key to this stars-and-scrubs affair. With six games, we’ll be looking at a few of the top plays on the board for optimal-lineup rates and a few of the pivots at better leverage scores that will help us improve other positions with salary savings. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Nerlens Noel – New York Knicks

DraftKings — $5,200 — C | FanDuel — $5,500 — PF

We all know that Noel is not a very good basketball player in real life. If he were, he would have caught on in a permanent role by now instead of playing as a backup for his fourth NBA team since he was drafted sixth overall in 2013. Noel brings size and defensive grit to the floor, and he can be a productive NBA DFS player when we need him. In his role this season, Noel has managed 0.96 fantasy points per minute, a mark that is actually down from his 1.13 in a more focused role last season. Noel has been thrust into relevance in recent games due to the injuries to starting center Mitchell Robinson and backup Taj Gibson, creating a void of minutes in the frontcourt. In the eight games since Robinson’s injury, Noel has averaged 8 points in 30.7 minutes, consuming just 9.7% of the team’s usage and adding a 27.1% rebounding share and 3.2 stocks per game.

For tonight’s FanDuel slate, Noel slots in as an ideal power forward option. He is only slightly over-owned in comparison to his 50.1% optimal-lineup rate despite landing in 54.0% of projected public lineups. Noel has a massive 50.5% boom-score probability and looks like far more of a key building block than a bad piece of chalk. Regardless of where the public lands, I will have massive shares of Noel this evening on the blue site.

On DraftKings Noel ranks at the top of the board by optimal-lineup rate, though it is only about half the mark of the competing site, coming in at 27.2% in the center spot. Noel lacks positional flexibility on the site but costs just $5,200 and is firmly in play. He has a formidable 28.3% boom-score probability and will be owned only slightly ahead of his optimal-lineup rate. I would likely push beyond the public and the -3.7 leverage for a play this good on DraftKings as well, but it is a far closer decision than it is on FanDuel.

Paul George – Los Angeles Clippers

DraftKings — $8,400 – SG | FanDuel — $7,900 – SG

Making a habit of rostering underpriced and under-owned star caliber players is rarely a bad idea. In the case of George this evening, it looks like an excellent plan. George has been back in the rotation for eight games, seeing 27.5% usage and contributing a 19.5% rebounding share and 33.7% assist rate. He has averaged 20.2 real-life points, 6 rebounds, 5.5 assists and added 1.6 stocks over 31.0 minutes per game during the stretch, making him a valuable daily fantasy basketball contributor.

On DraftKings George ranks ninth with his 17.6% optimal-lineup rate, but he is second best in the metric among eligible shooting guards, and he costs less than Bradley Beal while coming in slightly less popular. George has a 2.8 leverage score that tells us the public is falling short of the correct amount of shares tonight. When we add in the 17.7% boom-score probability, George becomes a very appealing play for those numbers and the overall cost.

On FanDuel he looks even stronger. George’s optimal-lineup rate on the site ranks second only to the gargantuan total posted by Noel, and he is dramatically under-owned. George lands in the optimal lineup in 34.5% of Awesemo’s FanDuel simulations, the public is only rostering him at a 26.9% clip, creating a significant leverage opportunity. It would make sense to extend well beyond the public’s ownership share tonight for a player who has a 33.5% boom-score probability. Fire away — with a healthy 7.6 leverage score we gain significant value rostering additional shares.

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Patty Mills — San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings — $4,700 — PG/SG / FanDuel — $3,900 — PG

One of several Spurs who will be available to play in the game tonight, Mills is creating a bit of value on the board on both sites tonight. Mills averages 0.79 fantasy points per minute this season, and we have seen him provide slate-breaking upside when given the opportunity in the past. Awesemo has him projected for more than 28 minutes tonight; he could easily exceed 30 with so many missing Spurs.

Mills’ primary asset on DraftKings is positional flexibility, where he slots in at both guard spots but costs $4,700. His optimal-lineup rate on the site is a reasonable 13.9%, 19th overall on the slate but eighth among eligible guards at either spot. Mills is a bit too expensive on the site however, his inflated salary has his boom-score probability down to just 10.9%, which does not compare favorably with other available guards. He is a risky proposition for upside, though he does turn up a 2.5 leverage score. At most, we should mix and match Mills carefully where we have available salary and no potentially more valuable upgrades at other positions.

On FanDuel Mills costs just $3,900 and can be rostered only at the point guard. He turns up in the optimal lineup with surprising frequency, coming up 25.6% of the time, fourth on the slate at any position and second to only Russell Westbrook at the position. Mills has a low 23.5 median fantasy point projection but significant upside to exceed it given his 28.2% boom-score probability. The only concern is the public popularity. Mills is no secret at 26.1% ownership, but his leverage score is only a -0.5, meaning there is plenty of room to push well past the field if our optimal constructions require the salary savings Mills can provide.

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Jakob Poeltl – San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings — $6,100 — C / FanDuel — $5,800 — C

Another player in line for significant opportunity for the Spurs tonight, Poeltl should see all the minutes he can handle given the absences of most of the key players in the San Antonio frontcourt. The Spurs will be without LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Keldon Johnson and others for their game against the plodding, defensively oriented Knicks. In 214 minutes with none of the absent players on the floor since the start of last season, Poeltl averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute, well up from his season-long 1.01 mark.

On FanDuel Poeltl appears to be a strong target despite the singular center requirement. He lands in the optimal lineup in 21.1% of simulations for the slate while providing a killer 37.1% boom-score probability, leading the position. Poeltl will be popular, but not prohibitively. The public is only rostering him at level ownership with his likelihood of being a requirement. We can get past their exposures and probably should.

On DraftKings we can move Poeltl around the board and roster him as a second center from the utility spot. He is relatively inexpensive despite a higher salary than was assigned to him by the blue site. Poeltl carries a 10.7% optimal-lineup rate on the site, and he will be under-owned, coming up with a 4.2 leverage score. Poeltl has upside to a ceiling score, as evidenced by his quality 14.1% boom-score probability. He is a good play on the DraftKings slate tonight, but he is not as likely to be a mandatory piece as he is on the competing site.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.