🏀 NBA Optimal Lineup Leaders & Leverage Picks | DraftKings & FanDuel with Steph Curry | Friday, Feb. 26

A fun-filled Friday affair of a daily fantasy basketball slate awaits us tonight, with a meaty nine gamer to sink our teeth into. The oddsmakers have most of these contests lumped together on the totals board, creating a narrow lane of opportunity across numerous similar-looking plays. The path to optimal constructions could be somewhat less clear, though we have some obvious values already in the pipeline. With nine games, we’ll be looking at a few of the top plays on the board for optimal-lineup rates while not sweating the public exposure quite as much. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

LaMelo Ball — Charlotte Hornets

DraftKings — $8,700 — PG | FanDuel — $7,600 — PG

Ball is the NBA’s hottest rookie, and he has been a fixture in daily fantasy basketball lineups through the first half of the season. He stands out atop the board on FanDuel and has significant appeal on DraftKings. For the season, in all situations, Ball is up to 1.22 fantasy points per minute, obliterating all expectations for his production as a rookie. When one of the other members of the Hornets trio of quality guards is on the shelf, Ball steps up in a big way. With Devonte’ Graham on the shelf over the last three games, Ball has posted a 22.7% usage rate, a 17.1% rebounding percentage and a 41.3% assist share. He has averaged 16.0 real-life points in 33.4 minutes per game, contributing additional fantasy points with his 2.6 stocks per game as well.

On DraftKings Ball ranks as a high-quality point guard. He is priced up for the production we have seen from him in this role, but he is worth getting to. Ball posts an 18.1% optimal-lineup rate that ranks fifth overall on the slate. He is more expensive than the four players above him in the category, but only De’Aaron Fox outpaces him at the position. Ball’s 30.9% boom-score probability and 2.8 leverage score add to the appeal, making him an under-owned, high-upside, high-floor play on the slate.

On FanDuel Ball slots in as a near-must. He lands in the optimal lineup in 42.7% of simulations, leading the entire slate. He is radically underpriced at just $7,600, as we can tell by his ridiculous 61.3% boom-score probability. Ball makes for a fundamental building block for optimal constructions on the blue site tonight. He should be rostered regardless of the popularity, but we can take heart in the 0.3 leverage score.

Harrison Barnes — Sacramento Kings

DraftKings — $5,500 — SG | FanDuel — $6,200 — SG

Barnes could be the definition of the daily fantasy basketball mid-range. He is always projected for a good but not great game and always evenly priced and rarely at an extreme discount; Barnes is simply a steady producer and a fairly reliable plug-and-play for the median projection. He has quietly had a strong year, putting up 0.85 fantasy points per minute that is up significantly from his 0.72 from last season. He is efficient in his production as well, taking just 17.1% usage while contributing a 36.4% rebounding rate, though there is not much in his 6.7% assist share.

On tonight’s FanDuel slate, Barnes slots into his usual role in the mid-range, though he is on the inflated end of his general price spectrum at $6,200. Barnes still comes up in the optimal lineup in 14.0% of simulations for the site, though he is owned at a higher clip, pushing his leverage score to a -2.4. The 18.7% boom-score probability is also a bit of a concern, which means that Barnes may be overpriced for our purposes unless the ownership drops and some leverage opens. Barnes would be fine as a mix-in play, but it might be worth coming in below the field on FanDuel.

On DraftKings he is a very different play. Barnes lands in the optimal lineup in 20.8% of simulations, third-most frequent on the entire slate, and he costs just $5,500 while providing positional flexibility at both forward spots. He is a strong moveable piece on the DraftKings board today, coming up with a 24.2% boom-score probability that ranks 11th on the slate. He will be popular, but not to a degree that means we should avoid getting beyond the slate on a quality play. It makes sense to leverage up on Barnes shares on this slate, making him a very different play from one site to the next.


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Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors

DraftKings — $9,700 — PG / FanDuel — $10,000 — PG

Curry has been a frustrating daily fantasy basketball piece this season. He always seems just out of reach in terms of price for upside, and when he has made it into rosters, he’s done things like scratch just after lock. For the season, his production has been right on par, coming in at 1.36 fantasy points per minute across all situations. Curry playing with a mixed bag of teammates across portions of the season has no doubt had some impact, but the superstar perseveres, soaking up a 30.9% usage rate, a 17.7% rebounding share and a 29.6% assist rate for the season.

On FanDuel Curry costs $10,000 and ranks as a compelling play. He is 12th overall on the slate by optimal-lineup rate and third among point guards. He is the highest-priced player in the group by a significant margin but makes plenty of sense slotting in alongside each of the higher-ranked players at the position. Curry has a strong 30.4% boom-score probability; given the five-figure salary, we could reasonably expect it to be 10 or more percentage points lower. Curry is also providing leverage, coming in with a 2.3 leverage score, meaning we can get beyond the public and extend our advantage rostering one of the best players in the game.

For the DraftKings slate, Curry pops his head into the optimal lineup in 16.4% of simulations, ranking him 10th overall on the slate. He is slightly underpriced and has a strong 30.6% boom-score probability, which ranks fifth. Curry is slightly negative with a -2.1 leverage score, but he should still be rostered at a greater clip than the public. He remains a top pay-up option.

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Isaiah Roby — Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings — $4,900 — PF/C / FanDuel — $4,600 — PF

The Thunder have been a significant source of value throughout the first half of the season. The team has had numerous lingering injuries as well as a bout with COVID-19 protocols, pushing and pulling players in and out of the rotation and the starting five. Oklahoma City has stabilized in recent weeks, with most players returning to action. Tonight, things swing back the other way. Center Al Horford will sit for the first half of a back-to-back, while a primary ball handler Hamidou Diallo will also be out with injury. The opening Horford’s absence creates in the frontcourt is the void that Roby should be able to occupy.

Over the team’s past five games, Roby has averaged 21.8 minutes per game, putting up 8.2 real-life points on 15.9% usage. He contributes a 31.3% rebounding share and a 20.8% assist rate in his limited time on the floor, raising his potential for fantasy production. Across all situations this season, Roby has averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute, a significant rate at his low price. In 155 minutes without Horford this season, Roby has averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute. He is in for an uptick in minutes and usage tonight, putting him in play for daily fantasy basketball.

Roby is no secret — he will be popular on both sites. On DraftKings he comes up with a 12.0% optimal-lineup rate but will be owned by more than 20% of the public. This situation creates a negative leverage score that is approaching concerning territory. Roby has just an 18.8% boom-score probability that suggests a lack of overall upside that does not play well with negative leverage. Typically we want a major opportunity for a ceiling score if we are rostering a player this popular. Roby’s -8.9 leverage score does not push me entirely off of the play, but this could be a spot to pivot and pick up value elsewhere on the slate.

On FanDuel Roby is extremely popular, coming up in 39.7% of public lineups while appearing in the optimal construction in just 21.1% of simulations. This is an imbalance as well, though Roby gains a strong 35.7% boom-score probability given his lower salary and the positional requirements of the blue site. On the FanDuel slate, Roby has a -18.6 leverage score. He still appears to be more building block than pivot or fade, but it is very close. It would pay to look for opportunities to get to a similarly ranked option at the power forward spot where we gain either upside or leverage on the field, but I will likely have a lot of Roby tonight on this site.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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