NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

A robust seven-game Thursday night slate has prize pools up and plenty of action on deck for NBA DFS fans. There are some excellent lineup picks for daily fantasy basketball purposes today. The slate has three highly totaled games and a couple interesting contests in the 220s, all of which should be reliable for fantasy point production. Getting to the right pieces seems trickier today, with negative leverage on many of the top plays on both sites. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall plays that also provide a bit over leverage on the slate. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Trae Young — Atlanta Hawks

DraftKings — $9,400 — PG | FanDuel — $8,600 — PG

Young is the highest-ranked player by optimal-lineup rate who also provides leverage on both sites. He has averaged 1.27 fantasy points per minute since the trade deadline. The Hawks will be in the same situation of relative health as they have played recently, but that still leaves Young underpriced. He can rack up fantasy points as quickly as anyone in the league when he gets hot, and he should have plenty of opportunities against the Pacers in the game with the highest total of the night. Young has a strong chance at an under-owned upside game.

On FanDuel, Young costs just $8,600 and appears to be an extremely valuable component of optimal constructions tonight. He has a 23.7% optimal-lineup rate that ranks him sixth overall on the slate. He carries a 41.9% boom-score probability for the low salary, but the public is trailing the optimal rate by a solid margin, leaving a 4.3 leverage score on one of the better upside spots available. This is a great play to pounce on, assuming the numbers hold. If Young goes off at positive leverage, rostering him could be a tournament-winning play.

On DraftKings, Young comes in more expensive but still flashes significant upside. He costs $9,400 on the site but maintains an 18.1% frequency of appearance in the optimal lineup, good for 12th overall on the site. He is competing with a number of other point guards ranked ahead of him in the category given the positional flexibility available, but he again stands out for a quality leverage score. Young is projected to be in just 13.6% of public rosters, which would have him at a significant 4.5 leverage score. For a player with a 25.5% boom-score probability, that looks like an excellent spot to pay up to a contrarian position.

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Caleb Martin — Charlotte Hornets

DraftKings — $3,900 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $5,000 — SF

With several players remaining out for the Hornets for tonight’s game, including Miles Bridges, Devonte’ Graham and his twin brother Cody Martin –– in addition to the longer-term injury to Gordon Hayward — there will be opportunity for Caleb Martin to come through as a strong value play. He is a different piece across the chess board of the industry. On one site he has massive utility and value, while he is more a low-owned mix-in on the other. Martin averages 0.82 fantasy point per minute across all situations this season. In 72 minutes since the trade deadline with this set of teammates out, he jumps to 0.95. For the price and the 30-minute projection that Awesemo has on him in the afternoon update, this looks like an excellent value play.

On the DraftKings slate, Martin ranks sixth overall with a 20.7% optimal-lineup rate. He plugs in across the entire slate given positional flexibility between shooting guard and small forward, providing massive utility to lineup building. There is strong upside at a lowly $3,900 salary, which is inappropriate for the potential production, leaving him with a 21.6% boom-score probability. The public is not comfortable getting to Martin aggressively, however. He has just a 17.6% ownership projection, creating a 3.1 leverage score.

On FanDuel, the play is less exciting because Martin’s price is up to $5,000. He slots into the optimal lineup in 10.2% of simulations, making him relevant but not mandatory. His boom-score probability drops to 11.2% against the far higher salary, making him more of a mix-and-match play where needed. Martin has a 3.2 leverage score on the slate, which does have appeal beyond the potential upside given the tightly constricted ownership around some key plays atop the board.

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Caris LeVert — Indiana Pacers

DraftKings — $8,700 — SG | FanDuel — $8,500 — SG

LeVert would be a great story if this entry stopped with the fact that he is one of the known healthy bodies for the team tonight. After a serious ailment in the earlier part of the season, LeVert has been back in a big way, playing 710 minutes for Indiana since the trade deadline in late March. Over that stretch he has averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute across all situations, in various combinations of teammates. With a number of players questionable in the mid-afternoon, it is a bit difficult to forecast the precise configuration of the Pacers rotation tonight, but it is safe to assume that LeVert will have a large role as usual. He leads the team in usage with a 27.1% rate across all situations since he arrived.

On DraftKings, LeVert stands 27th overall with just a 9.1% optimal-lineup rate. Among shooting guards on the site, that ranks sixth, giving him a bit more than the initially apparent upside. He has a 7.9% boom-score probability and is fairly priced on the site, though he is also under-owned even for a low probability of success. This is a strong GPP dart throw of a play, sitting at 5.7 leverage. Given the right configuration of teammates, LeVert could still put a ceiling score on this salary, though he has more utility on the other side of the industry.

Crossing over to the blue site, LeVert picks up value. He drops to an $8,500 salary and slots in at shooting guard, where he ranks as the fourth-best option and first at positive leverage when sorting by optimal-lineup rate. LeVert appears in the optimal lineup in simulations 17.1% of the time but stands at a huge 8.3 leverage score, meaning the field is way behind the curve on the play. Getting to shares of LeVert and his 17.0% boom-score probability makes plenty of sense, particularly when factoring in the popularity of players ranked above him on the board at the required position.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.