NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

A solid looking Monday slate of daily fantasy basketball was interrupted by real life, when the NBA wisely chose to postpone the Nets – Timberwolves game given the ongoing state of unrest and civil protest in Minneapolis. With the rest of the league’s games expected to play as scheduled, there is still plenty to like in the eight remaining games on the NBA DFS board. The slate has a few standout spots for leverage and upside, and there are a number of star players who are major points on which the entire night could swing. There are eight games on the slate, so the focus will primarily be on the board’s top overall plays. The goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

This article always comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with these daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score, and boom probability. The optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Zach LaVine — Chicago Bulls

DraftKings — $8,700 — SG | FanDuel — $8,700 — SG

LaVine remains at a strong value price for such an upside scorer, coming in at the same mark on both sites, though against a lower cap on DraftKings. He averages 1.18 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, and still has a true shooting percentage of 63.4% true shooting percentage — a mark that has climbed over the last two months. LaVine is in a great spot against Memphis, and he clocks in as one of the best and one of the most under-owned plays on both sites tonight.

On FanDuel, he grabs a 21.6% optimal-lineup rate that ranks him sixth overall on the entire board. He is the third-ranked shooting guard, coming in behind the 31.0% mark for Donovan Mitchell and 25.7% rate on Joe Ingles. Both of those players have negative leverage scores well below -10, which begins to get concerning despite the great spot for the teammates. LaVine, on the other hand, is coming in with a massive 14.4 positive leverage score and has a 24.5% boom-score probability. With everything else comparing favorably, and at a better price than Mitchell, it makes all the sense in the world to pivot to LaVine.

On the DraftKings slate, LaVine ranks fifth by optimal-lineup rate as well, though the cross-sites mark comes in at a lower 17.4%. He has an excellent boom-score probability of 18.0% and, similar to FanDuel, ranks just behind Mitchell and Ingles on the slate and at the shooting guard position. He will be under-owned by the public on this site as well, giving him a very appealing 7.4 leverage score. LaVine is in a great position to provide both salary and ownership relief when compared to Mitchell.

Naji Marshall — New Orleans Pelicans

DraftKings — $3,400 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $4,100 — SF

After putting up a solid score in a similar situation in the Pelicans most recent game, Marshall comes right back for NBA DFS purposes, giving daily fantasy basketball players another shot at grabbing significant value. The team is still without several key players, including Josh Hart, Lonzo Ball and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. In 31 minutes in this same situation, Marshall posted 15 real points on 6-for-9 shooting (2-for-4 from 3), seven rebounds, four assists and three stocks, a monster performance for the bargain salary.

Marshall comes in at just $3,400 on the DraftKings slate while offering positional flexibility from both forward spots. He has an outstanding 27.2% optimal-lineup rate that ranks him third overall on the slate, but the public is trailing behind, leaving him with a huge 9.8 leverage score. Marshall has a 29.7% boom-score probability that leads the slate. He makes for an ideal play in all formats at these marks and should be far more owned by the public.

Marshall is only a small forward on FanDuel, but that is precisely where he is most useful on this slate. He comes in with a $4,100 salary and lands in the optimal lineup in 24.5% of simulated slates for the blue site. Marshall has a 4.9 leverage score that suggests the public is asleep on him on this site as well, and his 26.2% boom-score probability offers plenty of appeal. With positive marks across the board and strong leverage, Marshall is an opportunity yet again tonight.

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Michael Porter Jr. — Denver Nuggets

DraftKings — $7,000 — SF/PF | FanDuel — $7,600 — SF

Looking down the board for some value and leverage, Porter stands out slightly for the opportunity and upside created by the team’s matchup against the Warriors. Porter has posted 1.04 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. That mark jumps to 1.11 in games without Jamal Murray on the court, which is expected to be the situation again tonight. Porter will see an uptick to 23.2% usage, up from the 20.4% he has in all situations this season. Porter contributes a steady 27.8% rebounding percentage but just a 5.3% assist share. He has a 64.8% true shooting percentage on the season, taking 45.3% of his attempts from beyond the 3-point arc, where he has been shooting 47.4% over the team’s most recent 10 games.

Porter has a solid 16.4% optimal-lineup rate that ranks him 13th overall on the FanDuel slate and fifth at the small forward spot, competing with players that have lower raw point projections. Porter has a respectable 14.1% boom-score probability and is a mid-range spend-up option by comparison. He offers great leverage with that money, separating himself from the higher-ranked plays by virtue of an excellent 8.0 leverage score. He is an interesting pivot on the slate, someone the field is ignoring, putting him firmly in play.

On the DraftKings side of things, Porter has a 12.7% optimal-lineup rate, also 13th ranked, while being eligible at both forward spots. He has a 15.6% boom-score probability that is 12th among all players at all positions, while the public is getting to him just 11.2% of the time. This leaves Porter with a targetable 1.5 leverage score on the DraftKings slate. He is not quite as strong a play across sites, but gamers gain utility, upside and value in getting to him tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.