Need your NBA DFS Picks fix? Not to worry, Adam “ShipMyMoney” Scherer has you covered with the usually PREMIUM NBA Deep Dive, giving out his top picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft for February 28, 2020.
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Guard
Luka Doncic
Doncic is still underpriced at $10,700 on DraftKings and $10,400 on FanDuel. He has averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 38.2 usage percentage and 41.4 assist percentage. The matchup against Miami is unappealing as they have been the fourth-slowest team in the league since the start of January while ranking 18th in defensive rating. Still, we should expect about 34 minutes from Doncic and he is one of the best per-minute producers on the slate.
Trae Young
Young is one of my favorite options on the slate as he takes on the Brooklyn Nets. This game has a 237 total and it should be fast-paced as the Hawks are fourth and the Nets are 16th in pace since the start of January. Young has been excellent with John Collins active this season, averaging 1.55 DraftKings points per minute in 28 games alongside Collins. This is also a great matchup as far as play-type data goes. Young leads the league with 15.5 pick-and-roll possessions per game and he ranks in the 84th percentile in points per pick-and-roll possession.
Brooklyn has allowed the fifth-most pick-and-roll possessions this season while ranking in the 10th percentile in defensive efficiency. They have allowed the third-most points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers and the third-most points per possession. Not surprisingly, Young has torched the Nets in both of their prior meetings this season with 39 points and 10 assists in 37 minutes on Dec. 4 and 47 points and six assists in 40 minutes on Dec. 21.
Devin Booker
Booker is mispriced in his matchup against the Pistons. Booker typically plays more than 36 minutes in competitive games and he should see an uptick in usage with Kelly Oubre sidelined. He has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games since the start of January with a 31.2 usage percentage and 28.9 assist percentage. He has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in three games without Oubre this season and 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in 535 minutes without Oubre on the floor. Detroit has been the second-slowest team in the league since the start of January, but Booker’s salary is too low for the amount of minutes that he plays.
Derrick Rose
Rose is a risky play because the Pistons have nothing to play for and we can expect them to run deep rotations that aren’t necessarily predictable. Still, we should expect 26-28 minutes per game for Rose. He has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.7 usage percentage and 49 assist percentage in 529 minutes without Blake Griffin or Andre Drummond on the floor this season. It is a big pace-up spot for the Pistons as well since the Suns have averaged over three possessions more per game than the Pistons since the start of January.
Mike Conley
Conley is inexpensive and gets one of the most favorable DFS matchups as he takes on the Washington Wizards. Washington is seventh in pace and 24th in defensive rating since the start of January. Conley played 33 minutes in his most recent game and we will typically get playing time in the low-30s from him in competitive games. He has only averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, but Washington’s pace and lack of defense should allow him to produce at a higher rate.
Honorable Mention: Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jimmy Butler, De’Aaron Fox, Ja Morant, Fred VanVleet, Dennis Schroder
Other Value: Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, Joe Harris
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Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis is a cheat code when it comes to fantasy production. He has averaged 1.85 DraftKings points per minute this season and he has averaged 31.5 minutes per game over his last 10 games compared to 29.7 minutes per game for the season. In fact, he has topped 30 minutes in nine of 13 games since Jan. 15. The matchup isn’t appealing as Oklahoma City is 22nd in pace and 11th in defensive rating since the start of January and they have allowed the fourth-fewest transition possessions per game this season. Still, Antetokounmpo contributes in all categories and comes with an extremely high floor. He is more valuable on sites with strict position requirements like FanDuel because the forward positions are much weaker than the guard positions tonight.
Caris LeVert
LeVert is getting expensive on DraftKings as his salary has climbed to $8,300, but he is still only $7,200 on FanDuel. He is a shooting guard on FanDuel, but he has forward eligibility on DraftKings so he has a bit of extra value for that reason. LeVert has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games without Kyrie Irving this season and he is typically playing 34 minutes in competitive games. He should be able to produce at an above-average rate tonight against an Atlanta team that is fourth in pace and 28th in defensive rating since the start of January.
Brandon Ingram
Ingram is $7,500 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel in a favorable matchup against a terrible Cleveland team. The Pelicans’ 125 team total is the highest on the slate. Ingram typically plays 34-plus minutes in competitive games and he has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with a 27 usage percentage and 18.7 assist percentage in 11 games alongside Zion Williamson.
Christian Wood
Wood moved back into the starting lineup in Detroit’s last game and he has a favorable matchup against a Dario Saric- and Deandre Ayton-led Suns’ frontcourt. Wood has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in 770 minutes without Drummond or Griffin on the floor this season and we should expect around 33 or 34 minutes tonight.
Honorable Mention: Pascal Siakam, John Collins, Zion Williamson, Kevin Love, Bojan Bogdanovic
Other Value: Taurean Prince, Dario Saric
Center
Deandre Ayton
Ayton is a top play on the slate regardless of position. He has played at least 35 minutes in three of four games since returning from injury and was in foul trouble in the game where he didn’t play a lot of minutes. Ayton has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in 27 games this season with a 24.4 usage percentage and 20.2 rebounding percentage. He has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 26 usage percentage and 23.2 rebounding percentage in 251 minutes without Oubre on the floor this season and he has averaged 1.53 points per minute in the three games that Oubre missed. The matchup is favorable as well as the Pistons’ frontcourt is full of terrible defensive players and/or players who wouldn’t be in the rotation on competitive teams.
Serge Ibaka
Ibaka faces a weak Charlotte frontcourt. The Hornets, of course, are also the slowest team in the league by a wide margin, so the overall matchup isn’t great due to the limited possessions. Ibaka has averaged 31.5 minutes per game and 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 22 games without Marc Gasol this season. Despite playing at the league’s slowest pace, the Hornets have allowed the ninth-most rebounds per game since the start of January and they have also allowed the ninth-most blocked shots per game.
Honorable Mention: Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert, Tristan Thompson
Value: Jarrett Allen, John Henson, Bruno Fernando
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