Thanks for reading today’s FREE NBA DFS Deep Dive by Dave Loughran, who gives out some of his top picks for the Thursday 12/19 slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
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NBA DFS Picks: Point Guard
Russell Westbrook (HOU)
Westbrook is projected for minimal ownership on DraftKings (9.9%) and Yahoo (7.8%), and is wildly underpriced on FanDuel ($9,300) where he’s projected to be 19.6 percent owned. He’s never going to provide the consistent slate-breaking upside we became accustomed to seeing in Oklahoma City, but Westbrook is also considerably cheaper playing alongside James Harden.
Despite his decrease in production, Wesbrook is still producing 1.38 DKPT per minute on 31.6 percent usage, 11.9 percent rebounding and 34.3 percent assists. He’s also logging monster minutes of late, averaging 36.1 MPG over his last 10 starts.
Westbrook doesn’t draw the easiest matchup against the Clippers’ stout backcourt defense, but he’s playing in a game that boasts a slate-high 235.5 O/U at the Staples Center. Houston owns the third highest implied total (115.5) on Thursday’s slate, as both the Clippers and Rockets play at a top five pace this season. Only Luka Doncic has recorded more triple-doubles (8) than Westbrook (6) through nearly two months.Â
Dejounte Murray (SAS)
Murray was on a soft minutes limit over the first month and a half of the season, but Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich appears to be easing his foot off the break over the last couple weeks. Murray has played 29-plus minutes in back-to-back games and three of his last four, while starting at point guard in each of his last two.
Assuming Murray continues to start and log around 30 minutes on Thursday, he should be considered a strong value at his price point. The fourth-year guard is sporting a 22.2 percent usage rate to accompany a 25.8 percent assist rate and 13.8 percent rebound rate through two months. He’s churning out a strong 1.20 DKPT per minute.
Murray sees some rates decline slightly when playing alongside DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge (20.7% USG, 26% AST, 14.5% REB, 1.10 DKPT/Min), but the added playing time should mitigate that concern. Brooklyn plays at a top 10 pace and tonight’s game owns a respectable 220 O/U, so Murray should earn every opportunity to produce in what’s projected to be a competitive affair (SAS -3.5).Â
 Honorable Mention: Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN), Rajon Rondo (LAL), Patrick Beverley (LAC)
NBA DFS Picks: Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell (UTA)
Mitchell hasn’t exactly dominated with Mike Conley out of the rotation, but he’s still reasonably priced across the board for tonight’s mouth-watering matchup against Atlanta. Across 470 minutes with Conley sidelined, Mitchell is producing 1.16 FPPM on 32 percent usage, 8.2 percent rebounding and 16.4 percent assists. I’ve often discussed this in the past, but Joe Ingles actually becomes a primary facilitator when Conley is off the floor (21% AST), especially considering Emmanuel Mudiay is playing off the bench.
The Hawks play at the ninth fastest pace in basketball and own the league’s third worst defensive rating (114.4) this season. They’re also allowing the ninth most points per possession to ball handlers in the pick-and-roll, where Mitchell ranks fourth in scoring and ninth in frequency on the year. Only the Clippers carry a higher implied total into Thursday’s slate than the Jazz (116.3).
Lou Williams (LAC)
Willams is $5,900 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel, which is egregiously cheap for tonight’s fast-paced matchup against the Rockets. He should see upwards of 30 minutes in a competitive game and is still operating a 1.11 FPPM on 28.2 percent usage and 34.1 percent assists since Paul George joined the rotation.
Los Angeles owns a slate-high 120 implied total against a Houston squad that’s playing at the second fastest pace in basketball. While Williams’ minutes and production have been erratic in recent weeks, most of his down games came in massive blowouts where his services weren’t needed. That shouldn’t be the case on Thursday night.Â
Kevin Huerter (ATL)
Huerter continues to earn the backup point guard minutes behind Trae Young, and is coming off a game where he logged 32 minutes in a blowout. This is a great sign for Huerter moving forward, as he has been very involved as a playmaker this month.
In seven games since returning from injury, Huerter is averaging an excellent 9.2 potential assists per game, good for second most on the Hawks behind Young. His assist rate sits at 22 percent over that span, and although his per-minute production leaves some to be desired (0.88), Huerter is cheap enough to deploy on DraftKings ($4,900) and especially FanDuel ($4,800) and Yahoo ($12). It’s still hard to say whether or not Huerter will continue to see 30-plus minutes per game, but if he does we’d be wise to roster him at a sub-$5K price point even if it’s against the Jazz.
 Honorable Mention: Cam Reddish (ATL) (GPP), Derrick White (SAS)
NBA DFS Picks: Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
Antetokounmpo and the Bucks draw a rare matchup where they aren’t projected to win by double-digits. Milwaukee is favored by only four points in a home meeting with the Lakers, which means Antetokounmpo could see upwards of 35 minutes tonight.
A competitive game for the Bucks means bigger minutes for Giannis, which means astronomical fantasy production. He’s averaging an unthinkable 1.96 DKPT per minute on the season, which across 35 minutes is 68.8 DKPT. Even across 33 minutes Antetokounmpo is impossible to pass up at $11,300 on DraftKings and especially $11,200 on FanDuel. It’s really that simple; while tonight’s matchup with Los Angeles isn’t easy, there’s no slowing Antetokounmpo down when he gets a head of steam.
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) and Paul George (LAC)
Leonard and George are projected to garner a ton of ownership tonight, as the Clippers boast a slate-high 120 implied total in a game that owns a hulking 235.5 O/U. Both players are operating with 30-plus percent usage rates when playing alongside each other, but they’re playing between 10-12 minutes without each other on the court each night, too.
The reason Leonard and George are so popular tonight is their price points, sitting at $9,200 and $8,500 on DraftKings, respectively. I have no problem with George ($9,100) on FanDuel, but Antetokounmpo is just too cheap to overlook if you’re paying up at small forward.
Ultimately, there’s too much upside at their respective salaries to not have interest in both. Assuming George plays around 34 minutes and Leonard plays around 33, it’ll be hard for them to disappoint against the league’s second fastest paced basketball team.
Honorable Mention: Donte DiVincenzo (MIL), Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA), Danuel House (HOU), Royce O’Neal (UTA)
NBA DFS Picks: Power Forward
LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)
Aldridge is handling a massive workload of late, with an average of 35.1 MPG over his last 10 starts. He isn’t exactly eating up possessions like he used to, but Aldridge is still sporting decent rates of 23.1 percent usage, 11.5 percent rebounds and 1.09 DKPT per minute. Sometimes all you need is big minutes to justify a roster spot, and Aldridge is seeing just that.
Tonight’s meeting with Brooklyn is pretty strong; the Nets play at a top 10 pace and rank middle of the road defensively. They’re also allowing 0.91 PPP in post up situations, too, where Aldridge ranks third in scoring this season behind Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. Aldridge is also playing all of his minutes at center, so he should continue to rack up points-rebounds double-doubles going forward. You aren’t paying a premium for him anywhere, either (DK: $7,300, FD: $7,600, Y!: $30).
Montrezl Harrell (LAC)
Harrell should play around 30 minutes tonight in the event that this game stays competitive (it should). He’s churning out 1.19 FPPM on the season and is one of only four players on the Clippers to actually own a 20-plus percent usage rate (24%). He’s rebounding and blocking shots at 13.1 and 3.7 percent, respectively, and is simply too cheap on DraftKings ($6,100) and FanDuel ($6,500 – Center).
I’m seeing Harrell projected for 26 minutes in some spots, and don’t agree with this at all; he’s playing 30-plus minutes in all of Los Angeles’ competitive games and has a fantastic connection with Lou Williams off the bench.
Interestingly, the Rockets are only allowing 6.2 points per game to roll men in the pick-and-roll, but are coughing up the third most points per possession (1.12) this season. Harrell is an excellent scorer in the PnR (1.24) and should be able to exploit this matchup, especially with some of his minutes coming against an undersized P.J. Tucker and Houston’s reserves.Â
Honorable Mention: Taurean Prince (BKN)
NBA DFS Picks: Center
Clint Capela (HOU)
Capela should be considered a top option on Thursday night, squaring off against a Clippers team that often struggles to protect the rim. The matchup is less important than Capela’s minutes and overall production, though, as he’s sporting a behemoth 22.8 percent rebound rate and 5.2 percent block rate this season.
He isn’t a high-usage player (15.6%), but Capela attempts 71.2 percent of his shots from within three feet of the rim and is constantly fed high-percentage scoring opportunities from James Harden and Westbrook. Most importantly, Capela is seeing games where he plays 38 minutes in regulation — this should be one of them.
Capela is averaging 1.21 DKPT per minute this season, but is somehow priced at only $7,600 on DraftKings and $34 on Yahoo. In a lightning-fast-paced game with a slate-high 235.5 O/U, Capela simply can’t be ignored.
Rudy Gobert (UTA)
Gobert is another mid-range center worth targeting tonight; he’s a 1.16 DKPT per minute producer on the season who rebounds at an elite level (21.9%) and blocks shots at an above average clip (4.5%).
Gobert and Capela are actually similar in that they produce strong fantasy totals by logging big minutes and playing close to the basket. He’s averaging 43.4 DKPT per game in the six games Mike Conley missed, and even saw his usage increase to 18.3 percent over that span. It’s hard not to like Gobert against a Hawks team that plays at a top 10 pace and ranks 28th in defense andÂ
Honorable Mention: Anthony Davis (LAL)
