We’ve had the good fortune today of getting a lot of useful injury information early. Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, and Marvin Williams are all out which creates several inefficiencies in the pricing on both sites.
Frank Kaminsky (4k) – On most nights, Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams split the 48 minutes at power forward. With Marvin out tonight, I expect Kaminsky to have to play a lot to deal with the size of Ersan Ilyasova and John Collins for the Hawks. He may see a decrease in usage playing more minutes alongside Kemba Walker and Dwight Howard, but he’s still a huge bargain for the price. Probability of top 5 value: 46.6%
Al Horford (7.1k) – When Kyrie Irving sits out, Al Horford typically sees a significant bump in usage. With his season average being 4.75x his salary already, I expect him to exceed this more often than not with the bump in usage and with his team having a higher than average team total even without Irving. Probability of top 5 value: 40.2%
Jeremy Lamb (4.2k) – With Marvin Williams missing today’s game, I expect the Hornets to roll with a 9 man rotation due to their lack of front court depth. The way this will work is I expect to see more small lineups featuring Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at the 4; since these two usually split minutes, this will open up more for Lamb. In addition, his salary relative to the cap is much lower on Fanduel. Probability of top 5 value: 39.7%