After a historic performance by Kevin Durant in which he stomped on the Cavaliers’ hearts at every turn despite their supporting cast chipping in and even Rodney Hood succeeding beyond their wildest dreams, the Warriors have a chance to close out the series with a sweep in Cleveland. Vegas currently projects the Golden State to take the win with Cleveland putting up something of a fight but can LeBron and co force a Game 5 and keep their faint hopes of a championships alive?
Awesemo’s NBA rankings are already up for premium members. And if you want to build your bankroll with the game tonight, we’re also doing a contest in conjunction with Playline in which you have to guess the stat lines for Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Draymond Green. Josh Engleman has an article projecting Kevin Durant’s stat line to get you started. You get free money just for signing up and more if you deposit as well as a decent chance you’ll win money with Josh’s guidance given the overlay going on over there so sign up and now and get in the mix. And now onto the Switch and Hedge.
Golden State Warriors (110 implied points) at Cleveland Cavaliers (105.5 implied points)
Kevin Durant was the big story in Game 3, shooting 15-of-23 at a 33% usage rate en route to almost 75 fantasy points. It’s his most efficient performance thus far in the playoffs and came at a perfect time for the Warriors with both Splash Brothers going cold. Klay Thompson likened it to a night off in a post-game interview and noted how discouraging it must have been for the Cavs, a very prescient take by Klay. Durant did NOT get a price jump with the performance and, in fact, his price is down a little on DraftKings while Steph Curry’s went up. It seems like they’re attempting to account for the ebbs and flows of the Warriors’ offense but the result may be Curry getting less ownership than he should and Durant getting more after coming off that insane game. It still seems to me like there’s going to be a Klay Thompson game in this series and I’d wonder if tonight can be the night. His price is the same, he’s shown crazy upside in these playoffs, and the success hasn’t been there at a high volume thus far this series. He’s a bit boom or bust from a lineup construction perspective with how these games have shaken out thus far but my gut and his pricing relative to others tells me tonight might be his night. Draymond Green hasn’t been super useful on the road in the playoffs and I don’t see it for him tonight with Kevin Love at a similar price on the other side. That said, he is an A in both points and value in Awesemo’s rankings, the lone one on this slate. Andre Iguodala returned to the lineup off the bench in Game 3 but on a minutes restriction. He reportedly had some discomfort after the game but is currently expected to suit up for Game 4. I don’t see him being a value smasher at his price but it’s possible he can fit a helpful lineup construction. Shaun Livingston kept his run of minutes despite Iguodala’s return but lost out on the crunch time run and some peripherals with the different lineups resulting from Andre being available. He can be useful but I wouldn’t view him as a lineup building block. Javale McGee saw a bit less run as a result of Iguodala’s return but stayed in the starting lineup with similar success. He feels due for a letdown game to me with how much players have relied on him for salary relief but I don’t see how the Cavs stop what he’s been doing, namely open dunks on drives to the rim by more worrisome scorers. Kevon Looney was the big loser to Iguodala’s return while Jordan Bell moved above him in the rotation for a highly effective 12 minutes of run. He posted a 27% usage rate in that time so I wouldn’t bank on him to get to that 20 fantasy point range again since he’s normally closer to 10-16% but he does seem like a good cheap flyer. David West is a moderately interesting flyer if you’ve got a ton of lineups tonight but otherwise that covers the Golden State side.
For the Cavaliers, LeBron is at his highest price thus far and seems worth the fare unless you think the Cavs get blown out and LeBron throws in the towel knowing that the series may be out of reach even if they pick up the win. I still believe in him but I think this is the first time this series I’d even contemplate a fade on him. Kevin Love remains at a great price for how he’s been playing and I still think, much like Klay, that there is a chance you may be able to win a tournament with him in the Captain role at 1.5x the points for 1.5x the salary. Love got a little less usage with the emergence of Rodney Hood in Game 3 but he still has some of the better upside per dollar in my view. JR Smith put up 14 shots in Game 3, 10 of which from three point range, and was a great value. He’ll likely find a lot of ownership but I he looks good from a value perspective again to me. Tristan Thompson was a totally competent play and his salary was a part of the winning lineup in DraftKings’ $200K grand prize tournament in Game 3. If he fits from a lineup construction perspective, I think he’s fine to roll out there given his somewhat secure floor. George Hill lost some usage to JR Smith’s relentless chucking and minutes to Rodney Hood in Game 3, including in crunch time, but it’s possible the game breaks more his way tonight. He’s another classic boom or bust guy but he’ll at least have a chance to do something. Hood was as effective as he’s been in a Cavs uniform, shooting 7-for-11 in 26 minutes of court time. I don’t necessarily expect him to be quite as successful today but he should be a good value, albeit one that will likely come with a whole lot of ownership. Jeff Green gets minutes and does nothing with them and his price isn’t down enough for me to balance that out. Kyle Korver hasn’t been able to find his shot this series and I don’t necessarily see that changing, though if he hits just one or two of the threes he puts up that could completely change his outlook. If you want a potentially low-owned, differentiating play (possibly as a ballsy Hood pivot), that’d be one. Larry Nance is also a bit of a forgotten man despite still getting the minutes he’s thrived in earlier this series. He’s the only other guy I’d consider now that Jordan Clarkson is persona non grata with the shift to Hood.
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Boom, a possible last NBA game of the year in the books. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags, tune into our live-before-lock show at 6PM Eastern today (subscribe now on YouTube to get notified when we go live) since Fridays tend to get a little loose and even more fun than usual, and I’ll see you guys soon for more NBA…or something else if the Cavs break my heart again.
