Tonight features a five-game NBA slate that is filled with potential blowouts. Three of the four games have double digit spreads and the other two games neither spread is closer than six points. This will be a tough slate to maneuver, but the plays below are led by Awesemo’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool as we narrow down three boom and one bust play. Sunday’s in the NBA always present random news so make sure to stay up to date on Awesemo’s Starting Lineups page to find out who is in and out tonight.
Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks Today
Boom: Jaxson Hayes: $4,700 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel
28.2% DraftKings Boom/45.8% FanDuel Boom
The Pelicans will be a very popular team to target on tonight’s slate as CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are both likely out. The top three players on DraftKings and the top four on FanDuel are from the Pelicans in our ownership projections. The value player that is popping the most is Jaxson Hayes. Being power forward eligible on both DraftKings and FanDuel is a huge blessing for Hayes. This salary is too cheap for the upside that he provides. Awesemo projects Hayes to be the best value on DraftKings and second-best on FanDuel.
After playing 35 minutes against the Hornets last game, Hayes draws an even better matchup against the Rockets tonight. They rank last in defensive rating and second in pace, allowing 118 points per game. They also really struggle on the glass where they rank 27th in Rebounding Percentage this season. The Rockets also allow 5.9 blocks per game, which ranks third-most in the league. Add in that the Rockets allow the most points scored in the paint with 52 per game this season and there are a lot of ways Hayes can reach value.
Boom: LeBron James: $11,800 DraftKings/$10,900 FanDuel
22.3% DraftKings Boom/29.7% FanDuel Boom
LeBron James is doing everything he can to keep this Lakers team afloat in the Western Conference. They are clinging on to the ninth seed as they have lost nine of their last 12 games. James has been superb in his last three games averaging 43 points, 10.3 rebounds, and seven assists per game while shooting 56.1% from the field and 44.8% from behind the arc. Also during those three games, James has averaged a 38.3% usage rate and 73.3 DraftKings points per game. Despite the tough matchup, James is one of the best pay-up options.
The Suns present a very difficult defense as they not only have the best record in the league, but they rank second in defensive rating, allowing 106 points per game. However, James is playing on a different level right now. Playing without Anthony Davis has created even more usage rate and ceiling. In 27 games without Davis this season, James is averaging 32.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting 53.3% from the field. If the Lakers have any chance at keeping this game competitive, it will be because of James.
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Boom: Devin Booker: $9,200 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel
27.6% DraftKings Boom/10.2% FanDuel Boom
Pairing James and Devin Booker for the late game hammer is a very intriguing option. The salary has come up since the absence of Chris Paul, but it is deserving. In five games without Paul this season, Booker is averaging 26 points and eight assists per game. The major increase has been the assist numbers, which he has nearly doubled. Booker is also averaging nearly 10 more DraftKings points per game without Paul in the lineup. There is enough value with the Pelicans to fit both James and Booker into a lineup tonight.
The Lakers rank fifth in pace and points per game allowed this season. Without Davis, their defensive rating has taken a significant drop. Booker should have no trouble getting to his spots and being the main scorer and distributer of this offense. The Suns are also without sharp-shooter Cameron Johnson, so this game should be more competitive. It is a primetime game, so the stars in Booker and James will come to play. Prioritize Booker on DraftKings where he has the best grade and value according to our NBA DFS Rankings.
Bust: James Harden: $11,000 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel
58.0% DraftKings Bust/50.5% FanDuel Bust
The salary on James Harden has increased to a very high point where a fade makes a lot of sense. He is coming off of an absolute dud against his former team where he only had 11 points while shooting 3-of-17 from the field! All three made baskets were from behind the arc. Harden has had one huge performance where he had 80 DraftKings points against the Knicks. Take that game out of the equation and Harden is averaging 46.7 DraftKings points per game since joining the 76ers. Not bad, but too low for this salary.
Being shooting guard eligible on both DraftKings and FanDuel is a little interesting, but certainly helps roster construction. The matchup against the Magic is one in which the 76ers should dominate. They are favored by 12 points on the road as the Magic are implied for a slate-low 105.25 points. A bounce back performance is on the table for Harden, but it is tough to see the Magic keeping this game competitive. Awesemo projects Harden to be one of the worst pay-up options on the slate. Fade Harden and play the other studs.
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Our DFS NBA projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. Looking for more DFS NBA news and the best NBA DFS picks? Check out our NBA daily fantasy rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own DFS NBA projections. View our DraftKings NBA ownership, our FanDuel ownership and our Yahoo! NBA ownership. We also have FanDuel NBA ownership rankings, Yahoo! NBA ownership rankings and DraftKings NBA rankings for today's slate.
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