Welcome to our new DFS series which focuses on foundational plays to help you get started with your NBA shell lineups.
As we barrel towards NCAA March Madness we can borrow a catchphrase popularized by Dick Vitale “He’s a PTPer Baby, a Prime Time Player!” and use it to pick out elite DFS options as the NBA heads into the tumultuous final quarter of the season.
There is a wealth of information available on Awesemo.com and this series will highlight the many offerings that can help us stay ahead of The Masses!
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Prime Time Player
Blake Griffin – DET at LAL – DK $7,700, FD $8,400, Yahoo $36 Popularity Rating (preliminary run): DK 26.0%, FD 21.0%
The Lakers looked listless last night in Toronto losing to the Raptors 111-98 and they are currently -11.0 underdogs in Detroit which would seem to be an early indicator that LeBron James may be getting the night off as Los Angeles Lakers playoff dreams are all but over.
On the season Griffin is averaging 24.9ppg, 7.7rpg, 5.4apg and 1.1 combined blocks/steals with 47.1 FG% and 36.1 3pt% – over his last five games his shooting has been in the toilet with 44.6 FG%, 30.0 3pt% with 17.4ppg, 5.2rpg, 4.8apg and 1.2 combined blocks steals. This has dropped his price dramatically since the All-Star Break on all of the main DFS sites.
One key thing to remember when comparing those two stat lines is that the minutes have been down with the Pistons involved in blowouts (both the good and bad sides) in four of the five games in this timeframe. This has led to Blake seeing just 29.1mpg over the last five when compared to the 35.2mpg on the season. This is a phenomenal matchup and great price point.
Teammate Andre Drummond – DK $8,800, FD $10,000, Yahoo $45 Popularity Rating (preliminary run): DK 23.0%, FD 18.0% is in the same phenomenal spot and is favorably priced as well with nobody outside of JaVale McGee equipped to guard him for the Lakers. The downside is that there are several centers in excellent matchups and Griffin is eligible for more roster slots on most sites.
Placeholder Value
Right around the All-Star Break the NBA rotations and player news begins to get more and more unpredictable with teams tanking, premiere players resting under the auspices of “load management” generally cause chaos as we approach tipoff with more and more news being released by teams.
Often times this will result in players that we were considering as core plays, losing their luster as the bright new options pop up closer to tipoff and as THE MASSES abandon a perfectly fine play being swayed by the fear of missing out.
Good Chalk
Marvin Williams – CHA at WAS – DK $4,600, FD $5,600, Yahoo $17 Popularity Rating (preliminary run): DK 30.0%, FD 14.0%
There’s a very good chance that Cody Zeller will miss this game with a knee injury as he is currently listed as doubtful. The Wizards play fast, eschew defense and rebounding and do not close out on three-point shots. Williams should be in line for 33-34 minutes and we saw him drop 30 points, 7 rebounds and an astounding 7 made three-pointers against Washington last Friday night. That was probably a ceiling game, but it would not be a shock for him to top 20 points and come close to double digit rebounds.
Chris Paul – HOU vs PHX – DK $6.900, FD $8,400, Yahoo $31 Popularity Rating (preliminary run): DK 20.0%, FD 8.0%
The matchup is amazing, however, Houston is heavy double digit favorites at home against Phoenix tonight and while the Suns have been very frisky lately, if they do in fact get their doors blown off – that of course will potentially cap Paul’s upside. It’s generally a fool’s errand to try and predict blowout spots and for “cash” games the “floor” outcome for CP3 tonight is perfect. Elfrid Payton – NOP vs POR – DK $6.600, FD $7,600, Yahoo $25 Popularity Rating (preliminary run): DK 9.0%, FD 6.0% is a fine pivot in tournaments or along side Paul. UPDATE: Chris Paul has been ruled out for “rest” so Payton is still a fine pivot and this gives a bump to James Harden if you are rolling out the extreme stars/scrubs lineups and Austin Rivers/Gerald Green can be added to the list of tournament punt options.
Bad Chalk
Guillermo “Willie” Hernangomez – CHA at WAS – DK $3,200, FD $3,600, Yahoo $10 Popularity Rating (preliminary run): DK 40.0%, FD 22.0%
Please note, this is not really “bad” chalk for “cash” games, but we need to be cognizant of how playing Hernangomez can impact the rest of our lineup for tournaments. As long Cody Zeller is out, then Hernangomez is a phenomenal play at essentially the minimum price across the board. HOWEVER, we are giving up a center slot on a night with many outstanding options and even if he averages 1.2 fantasy points per minute, he still needs 24-25 minutes to reach 30 fantasy points. He has topped 20 minutes in seven games this season and while he was healthy and Zeller previously out, he played more than 20 minutes three times in 16 games.
With so many “mid-tier” players that are in situations where they can exceed 40 fantasy points and flirt with 50 fantasy points, just how crucial is an extreme stars/scrubs build tonight?
Game to Target
Portland Trailblazers at New Orleans Hornets
This is an intriguing game since it is a long trip for Portland and three time zones across the country after Portland played the Clippers in LA on Tuesday. This is a back-to-back for them as well as they are in San Antonio tomorrow. Even with Anthony Davis playing 20-22 minutes, they Blazers may not be able to pull away until the fourth quarter. That means we have Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter from Portland and across the ball, we have Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, Kenrich Williams and Cheick Diallo.
FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day
With the incredibly user friendly and flexible rules creation feature on FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.
Today’s highlighted feature is the ability to “limit” players with multi-position eligibility to just one position. This is accomplished by using the “drop-down” in the “Position” column that appears for any player that is eligible at more than one position. With so many center-only plays today that are in great situations, we may want to consider limiting some of our PF/C players to PF/F only.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
