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NBA Fantasy: Boom Bust Tool Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Today 12/9




Thursday presents a three-game slate, and even with only six teams competing, NBA fantasy lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel will be flush with high-level talent and value plays. The Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page will provide breaking news when starters are announced as well as a full injury report on players who might be missing in action. Below are some NBA daily fantasy options that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.

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Boom: Jaren Jackson Jr.: $7,000 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel

20.9% DraftKings Boom/32.2% FanDuel Boom

With Ja Morant (knee) on the shelf, Jackson delivered 41.75 DraftKings points against the Mavericks last night. This marked his third game over 40 DraftKings points in these past six with Morant unavailable. The point guard will remain sidelined Thursday and in 331 minutes Jackson has played with Morant off the court this season, he has provided 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, mostly attributed to a 4.6-percentage-point increase to his usage rate. Following his strong performance last night, Jackson is in a beautiful spot this evening against the Lakers. With Russell Westbrook at the helm, Los Angeles ranks first in pace this season. They are also very vulnerable inside, giving up the fifth-most rebounds and second-most points in the paint. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (223.5 points) by a wide margin, and the Grizzlies have an implied team total of 110 points. Jackson should flourish in this prime matchup, and he is an outstanding target on both sites, particularly on FanDuel where his salary has strangely dropped to a new season low.

Boom: Dillon Brooks: $6,200 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel

37.5% DraftKings Boom/31.5% FanDuel Boom

With small forward lacking appealing options tonight, Brooks is an easy choice at his reasonable price tags. Brooks leads the Grizzlies in usage with Morant off the floor this season (31%), and he scores 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. Excluding the record-setting 73-point blowout win over the Thunder last Tuesday that limited Brooks to only 15 minutes, he has produced 30.4 DraftKings points per game with Morant out of the lineup this year. This is a terrific matchup against the fast-paced Lakers, and on BetMGM Brooks’ props are set at 21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists. This is already 27.75 DraftKings points before defensive stats and bonuses. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Brooks has a top-three boom score on the slate.

Update: Brooks has been ruled out due to health protocols. With him absent, Jackson sees a boost to his already strong fantasy stock. The forward posts a team-high 33.3% usage rate with Brooks and Morant off the court this season. Also, De’Anthony Melton should see a boost in playing and has to be considered. He scores 1.2 DraftKings points per minute in this situation and now boasts the highest Boom score on the slate for DraftKings. 

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Check out Zach Brunner’s NBA DFS Picks, Grades & Values article today for a full breakdown of what makes Brooks such a great play, as well as other value picks for tonight’s slate.

Boom: Derrick White: $6,300 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel

24.9% DraftKings Boom/5.1% FanDuel Boom

With Devin Vassell (quad) inactive and Keldon Johnson (ankle) only available for 15.7 minutes on Tuesday, White took full advantage and posted 44 DraftKings points across 34 minutes against the Knicks. Listed as doubtful, both Johnson and Vassell are not expected to suit up Thursday, creating a direct path for White to see an expanded role. When these two players have been off the floor this season, White’s usage and assist rates have jumped 5.1 and 8.3 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.11 DraftKings points per minute for White. His matchup is average, facing a Nuggets’ defense that ranks 15th in efficiency, but he is simply underpriced at only $6,200 on DraftKings for his expected workload. White has exceeded 40 DraftKings points in three of his past six starts and brings similar upside tonight.

Update: Vassell went through shootaround and is now listed as probable. Even with him active, White remains one of the top values for this short slate.

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Bust: LeBron James: $10,100 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel

45.9% DraftKings Bust/63.9% FanDuel Bust

Considering this tough matchup with the Grizzlies, James is overpriced. Memphis has the best defense in the league in the last six games without Morant, and it is not even close. Their defensive rating over this stretch has been a league-best 94.1, with the Warriors ranking second at 98.3. Since returning from a six-game absence, James has only averaged 46.6 DraftKings points per game in his past seven starts, and his ceiling is lower than usual in this ugly spot.

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While betting against James is never easy, there are much better studs to invest in this evening, specifically Nikola Jokic. He is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles and is averaging 58.8 DraftKings points per game in his last five. Jokic will be playing up in pace against a Spurs team that is the eighth-fastest unit in the league, and when these two clubs met back in October, the center erupted for 70 DraftKings points. Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool gives no player a higher ceiling than Jokic tonight.

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View our DraftKings ownership projections, our FanDuel ownership and our Yahoo! ownership. Looking for more NBA DFS tips today and the best NBA DFS tools? We also have Yahoo! ownership rankings, DraftKings ownership rankings and FanDuel NBA rankings for today's slate. Our NBA daily fantasy projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. Check out our NBA daily fantasy sports rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA daily projections.
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