NBA Fantasy Projections & Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel 1/10

Monday delivers a seven-game slate, and with 14 teams in action NBA fantasy lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel will be flush with high-level talent and value plays. The Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page will provide breaking news when starters are announced as well as a full injury report on players who might be missing in action. Below are some NBA daily fantasy options that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.

Boom/Bust NBA Daily Fantasy Projections & Picks

Boom: Anfernee Simons: $6,400 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel

29.9% DraftKings Boom/9.3% FanDuel Boom

With Damian Lillard (abdomen), C.J. McCollum (chest) and Norman Powell (health protocols) inactive last night, Simons posted 45.25 DraftKings points across 34.5 minutes against the Kings. Excluding Dec. 2, when he exited after only 10 minutes due to an ankle injury, Simons is now generating 42.4 DraftKings points in 36.2 minutes per game with Lillard and McCollum out of the lineup this season.

Lillard, McCollum and Powell will remain sidelined Monday, and Simons’ usage has skyrocketed 9.7 percentage points to a team-high 32.4% in the 108 minutes he has played with those three players off the court this season. Furthermore, Simons’ assist rate has increased 9.6 percentage points to 25.9%. He scores 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with this immense role and should handle 35 to 40 minutes tonight against the Nets. This matchup’s total is the second highest on the slate (228 points), and Simons’ ceiling is well over 40 fantasy points in this high-scoring environment. At only $6,400 on DraftKings, he is one of the best values on the board and boasts a top-10 boom score in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool. As for FanDuel, Simons is more expensive, but the higher cost is expected to result in single-digit ownership according to Awesemo’s projections, making him a sharp target in GPPs.

Boom: Jusuf Nurkic: $7,000 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel

51.6% DraftKings Boom/40.7% FanDuel Boom

Nurkic is another value from the Trail Blazers that needs to be utilized. With Lillard, McCollum and Powell out last night, Nurkic was one assist shy of a triple-double, en route to 53 DraftKings points in 38.3 minutes against the Kings. Albeit in a small sample of 52 minutes, Nurkic’s usage has seen a 1.9-percentage-point boost, and his assist rate has increased an absurd 19.6 percentage points to a team-high 35.5% with Lillard, McCollum and Powell off the floor this season. This results in an elite 1.6 DraftKings points per minute for Nurkic, and Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool is giving him a ceiling near 50 fantasy points in this projected shootout with Brooklyn. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Nurkic sports a top-three boom score on the slate and is a primary value for all formats.

Boom: Lonnie Walker IV: $4,200 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel

37.1% DraftKings Boom/28% FanDuel Boom

Yesterday Walker entered the starting lineup with Derrick White, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell sidelined due to health protocols and responded with 39.75 DraftKings points against the Nets. With the starting role, Walker saw 28 regulation minutes, and he should receive a similar workload tonight against the Knicks, with White, Johnson and Vassell remaining unavailable. Walker has supplied 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in the 112 minutes he has played without those three, behind a 29% usage rate, which is a 6.2-point increase from his season average.

Tonight Walker will be going against a Knicks team that ranks dead last in pace, but Walker’s expected role trumps any concerns about this matchup. Walker has contributed 30.2 DraftKings points per game in the 10 matchups in which he has logged at least 25 minutes. Relative to his low price tags, Walker brings excellent upside tonight and is rating as a top-five value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Awesemo’s projections.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Bust: James Harden: $10,400 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel

58.9% DraftKings Bust/48.6% FanDuel Bust

While Harden is tempting against this poor Blazers defense that ranks dead last in efficiency, he is a tough sell with Kyrie Irving suiting up. When Irving made his season debut last Wednesday against the Pacers, Harden finished with only 34.75 DraftKings points in a whopping 40.5 minutes. Sharing the floor with Irving, Harden’s usage dropped all the way down to 19% in that game. To put this in perspective, his average usage rate for the season is 27.7%.

Harden’s floor is much lower than usual with both Irving and Kevin Durant available, and he is a stud to avoid on both sites tonight. His salary on DraftKings is severely inflated, and Awesemo is projecting Harden to be one of the 10 most owned players of the night on FanDuel, surely making him bad chalk in tournaments.

Update: Harden has been ruled out with a knee injury, making Durant and Irving very appealing targets against this terrible Blazers’ defense. Since the start of last season, Durant and Irving have supplied 1.52 and 1.35 DraftKings points per minute, respectively, with Harden off the floor.

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