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NBA Fantasy: Boom Bust Tool Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Today 12/13




On the schedule for Monday night is a nine-game slate, and NBA fantasy lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel will be flush with high-level talent and value plays. The Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page will provide breaking news when starters are announced as well as a full injury report on players who might be missing in action. Below are some NBA daily fantasy options that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.

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Boom: Jalen Brunson: $5,800 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel

68.2% DraftKings Boon/55.1% FanDuel Boom

Brunson is a free square with Luka Doncic (ankle) out. With Doncic inactive for the fifth time last night, Brunson got the start at point and posted 33.25 DraftKings points in the blowout win over the Thunder. He is now averaging 38 DraftKings points in 34 minutes per game with Doncic out of the lineup this season. In the 397 minutes Brunson has played with Doncic off the court this year, his usage has and assist rates have seen notable upgrades, increasing 3.9 and 10.1 percentage points, respectively. That has led to him scoring 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

To put the icing on the cake, Brunson gets the best possible matchup he could ask for Monday against the Hornets. This season Charlotte ranks second in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. In this beautiful spot, the Mavericks’ implied team total is the second highest on the slate (111.25 points), and this game’s total is the third highest on the board (219.5 points). Additionally, Dallas is only a 3-point favorite. Not only is Brunson rating as the No. 1 value for both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he has the highest boom score on the slate for both sites, according to Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool.

Boom: Reggie Jackson: $5,900 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel

31.5% DraftKings Boon/21.2% FanDuel Boom

Jackson is one of the best values on the slate with Paul George (doubtful, elbow) not expected to play. In the three games George has missed this season, Jackson has produced 30.3 DraftKings points per game. When George has been off the floor this season, Jackson’s usage has jumped 5.9 percentage points to a team-high 31%. Furthermore, his assist rate has increased 7.1 percentage points, lifting Jackson to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute.

While he will be facing a Suns defense that is second in efficiency, Phoenix is one of the faster teams in the league, ranking sixth in pace. The Clippers also rank 12th in pace, and this game is expected to stay competitive throughout, with Los Angeles only favored by 3.5 points. On BetMGM Jackson’s props are set at 18.5 points, 4.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds, which is already 27.75 DraftKings points before defensive stats and bonuses are credited. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jackson has a top-10 boom score on the slate.

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Boom: Nikola Jokic: $12,000 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel

22.5% DraftKings Boom/25.5% FanDuel Boom

Jokic has been incredible as of late, scoring 65.6 DraftKings points per game in his last five. With Jamal Murray unavailable after offseason knee surgery and Michael Porter Jr. (back) only suiting up for nine games this season, Jokic has posted a 32.3% usage rate, a 42.5% assist percentage and a 22.9% rebound percentage, all of which are career highs. Jokic is currently providing an absurd 1.82 DraftKings points per minute, and tonight he will be at home taking on the Wizards. Washington ranks 19th in defensive efficiency, and they are surrendering the fifth-most points in the paint. Denver’s implied team total is the fourth highest on the slate (109.75), and over the last two seasons Jokic has been 3.24 DraftKings points per game better on his home floor than when competing on the road.

Jokic is averaging 60 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 starts at home, and his props for tonight are set at 28.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists on BetMGM. Including the DraftKings bonus for a double-double, this is already 56.5 DraftKings points before defensive stats and additional bonuses. According to Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, Jokic brings the highest ceiling on the slate by a wide margin, making him the most optimal stud to pay up for.

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Bust: Joel Embiid: $11,000 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel

64% DraftKings Bust/55% FanDuel Bust

There are plenty of reasons to fade Embiid tonight. First, he will be going against a Grizzlies defense that has been the best unit in the league since they lost Ja Morant (knee) eight games ago, ranking first in defensive rating. As a result, this game’s total is the second lowest on the slate (210 points). Plus, this game will take place in Memphis. Over the last two seasons, Embiid has been 5.9 DraftKings points per game worse on the road. All in all, this is a terrible spot for Embiid, and he is hard to justify at these current price tags.

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View our Yahoo! NBA ownership projections, our DraftKings ownership and our FanDuel NBA ownership. We also have Yahoo! ownership rankings, FanDuel rankings and DraftKings ownership rankings for today's slate. Our best DFS NBA projections are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. Check out our daily fantasy rankings NBA for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA DFS projections today. Looking for more NBA DFS picks for tonight and the best NBA DFS advice?
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