NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

Before we head into the All-Star break tomorrow, we get a full nine-game slate tonight. Below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | March 4

Small Forward: Norman Powell

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: B

With all of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Patrick McCaw and Malachi Flynn out last night, Powell dominated the Pistons for 46.25 DraftKings points. As expected, his usage was immense at a team-high 30.5%, and in all the time he has played sans VanVleet, Anunoby and Siakam this season, Powell is supplying 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. Tonight the Raptors will be in the same exact situation when they visit the Celtics.

With the team so shorthanded, there is blowout risk in this road matchup (Boston -8), but this factor should keep Powell’s ownership levels in check. If Toronto can keep this game in striking distance, he will see right around 40 minutes and has a legitimate shot at scoring over 50 fantasy points against the Celtics, who have the fifth-weakest defense over their last five with Marcus Smart (calf) still out of the lineup. Plain and simple, Powell is a risk worth taking in GPPs tonight.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 16.1%, FanDuel 7.8%

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Point Guard: Damian Lillard

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

Lillard’s game log may seem underwhelming by his standards, but the bottom line is the has ran into five straight difficult matchups. In order, Lillard has faced the Suns, Nuggets, Lakers, Hornets and Warriors. Three of these defenses rank inside the top six in defensive efficiency, and all of these clubs rank in the top 12 in fewest DraftKings points per game allowed to opposing point guards this season. Thursday night presents a much better spot for Lillard, going against the Kings, who are far and away the worst defense in the league. Their 118.9 defensive rating is the worst in the league by 2.5 points, and this is their second game in two nights.

Lillard erupted for 71.25 DraftKings points the last time these two teams met back in January, and this game total is 237.5 points, which is the high mark of the nine-game slate. Lillard should feast tonight, and he is my favorite high-end target on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 18.6%, FanDuel 25.8%

Power Forward: Robert Covington

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

Covington is an excellent way to gain exposure to this high-scoring environment between the Trail Blazers and Kings while also being contrarian. Despite smashing value with 43.4 DraftKings points per game in his last two, he has only garnered a DraftKings’ main GPP ownership of 5.5%, and our projections are expecting him to be under-owned again tonight on both sites.

The Blazers have been opting to more small-ball lineups as of late, with Covington seeing plenty of work as their center. This has resulted in 38.4 minutes and 9.5 rebounds per game across his last three. With the Blazers only 4.5-point favorites against the Kings tonight, Covington should maintain his 35 to 40 minutes role against this laughingstock of a defense. In his last five starts in game totals above 230 points, he has contributed 33.2 DraftKings points per game.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 7.5%, FanDuel 11.6%

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Shooting Guard: Paul George

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

After being eased back into action due to a toe injury that costed him six games, George no longer carries a minutes limit. He has logged 37.9 minutes in his past two and tonight’s matchup against the Wizards is a near perfect game setting. As of Thursday afternoon, the Clippers are only 5.5-point favorites, and this contest’s total is 236 points. When George has been active in a total 230 points or higher this season, he has amassed 48.2 DraftKings points per game. Not only are the Wizards the fastest squad in basketball, but their defense also ranks 25th in efficiency, and George just exposed them for 46 DraftKings points last Tuesday.

George is rating as an outstanding value tonight, particularly at only $7,900 on FanDuel. That would enter must-play territory if Kawhi Leonard (questionable, back) is unable to suit up. When Leonard has been off the court this year, George has led the Clippers with a hefty 33.5% usage rate. This is a 4.2% boost from his usual usage, and in the nine contests this season that George’s usage has eclipsed 30%, he has excelled with 44.8 DraftKings points per game.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 29.9%, FanDuel 41.7%

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