NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

Welcome back, everyone. Tonight we get a full slate with 10 NBA games on the schedule, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Feb. 17

Small Forward: Jayson Tatum

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

With Marcus Smart (calf) still sidelined and Kemba Walker being rested for the second night of a back-to-back, Tatum is a must-play. The Celtics were without the services of these two guards just this past Friday, and Tatum went off for a season-best 59.25 DraftKings against the Pistons. This was third time this season that Tatum has been active with both Smart and Walker inactive, and Tatum is scoring 57.8 DraftKings points per game without these two guards. In fact, these three performances rank as Tatum’s top three fantasy scores of 2020-21 season.

Sans Walker and Smart, Tatum’s production elevates to an immense 1.44 DraftKings points per minute due to a 3.8% usage increase and 5.0% boost to his assist percentage, both of which are team highs. Enter in a Hawks defense that is surrendering the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing small forwards, and Tatum is a lock for over 50 fantasy points. Via Awesemo’s projections, he is a top-five point-per-dollar value on DraftKings tonight at a modest cost of $8,700.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 35.1%, FanDuel 29.1%

Power Forward: Isaiah Roby

DraftKings Grades: D, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: D, Values: C

Veteran Al Horford has missed one contest of every back-to-back set this season for the Thunder, and he should be absent tonight after logging 29 minutes in Tuesday’s loss to the Blazers. This should push Roby into the starting lineup for Wednesday’s matchup with the Grizzlies. In the seven contests he has been available without Horford, Roby has started in every game and is averaging 26.4 DraftKings points with the role.

Roby recorded 29.5 DraftKings points last night against Portland and is amassing 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season. Matching up with Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas brings foul risk, but Memphis is giving up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing centers this season, and they rate as the sixth-worst defense in the NBA over their last 10. Roby is a very strong value play, and his power forward eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel makes him a no-brainer for this full slate.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 42.1%, FanDuel 24.1%

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Center: Robert Williams

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

With Daniel Theis (finger) confirmed to miss his second straight game, we have to go right back to Williams tonight, especially on DraftKings, where his salary remains at a low $3,100. As I talked about in this article yesterday, when one of the Celtics’ top three center (Theis, Williams and Tristan Thompson) is out, this becomes a two-man rotation at the five spot for Boston. As expected, Thompson drew the start in place of Theis, but Williams supplied the bigger score, with 30.5 DraftKings points in 19 minutes off the bench against the Nuggets. He is going to play less than Thompson again tonight against the Hawks, but he is the far better fantasy asset and is much cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For the season, Williams is generating 1.22 DraftKings points per minute against only 0.87 for Thompson.

Williams’ defensive abilities give him an excellent ceiling every time he sees sizable playing time, and the center is averaging 26.5 DraftKings when he has seen a minimum of 15 minutes this season. As an added bonus, this matchup with the Hawks is friendly for centers, with them yielding the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to the position over their last 10. The only problem here is that Williams is going to be much more popular than he was yesterday. Still, the value he provides is too strong to overlook, and I would rather differentiate the rest of my lineup than fade Williams tonight.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 40.5%, FanDuel 13.6%

Shooting Guard: Zach LaVine

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B

LaVine has been outstanding, and per usual, I expect him to be lowly owned tonight. He is supplying 51.1 DraftKings points per game across his last six and has been less than 10% owned in DraftKings’ main GPP for three straight games. Lauri Markkanen (shoulder) and Otto Porter (back) have missed the past four for Chicago and have already been confirmed out for Wednesday.

Collectively, these two forwards have missed five contests this season, and LaVine’s role has been absurd in these tilts. His usage rate has skyrocketed to a ridiculous 37.6%, which has translated to 54.6 DraftKings points per game. Wednesday night presents a great matchup with a Pistons defense that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency, and LaVine could be a game-changer in GPPs tonight.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 6.9%, FanDuel 9.5%

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