NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

For Wednesday night, we get a nine-game slate to attack, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Feb. 24

Small Forward: Jayson Tatum

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

After playing 33 minutes last night against the Mavericks, Kemba Walker will be rested this evening. Additionally, Marcus Smart (calf) is still without a timetable for a return, and the two guards being absent brings Tatum into must-play status for Wednesday night. Collectively, Smart and Walker have missed four contests this season, and Tatum has produced a team-high 57.25 DraftKings points per game with them out of the lineup. In fact, these four outings are Tatum’s top four fantasy scores of the season, and the success can mostly be credited to his expanded role as a playmaker. Smart and Walker rank first and second in assist percentage for Boston this season, and when they have been missing, Tatum has taken over with a team-high 29.3% assist rate, which is a large 7.3% upgrade from his season average.

The last time the Celtics were in this scenario was exactly a week ago, when they faced the Hawks, and Tatum record 55.5 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes. Tonight calls for a rematch against the same Atlanta team, and in their last five, this Hawks defense has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing small forwards. Tatum is a lock for over 50 fantasy points and my favorite play on the slate.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 26.9%, FanDuel 30.7%

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Point Guard: Saben Lee

DraftKings Grades: D, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: C

Tonight is the same exact story as yesterday. Lee is priced correctly on FanDuel but extremely underpriced on DraftKings. With Delon Wright (groin) out for the second straight game last night, Lee was exceptional again off the bench, posting 34.75 DraftKings points across 29 minutes against the Magic. The rookie’s usage got up to 24.6% last night, and he shot a very efficient 8-for-11 from the field, including 3-for-3 from downtown. Lee is now scoring 32.4 DraftKings points with 31 minutes per game in these past two sans Wright, and his efforts helped the Pistons snap a three-game losing streak Tuesday.

The Detroit coaching staff is obsessed with the Vanderbilt guard right now, and they even gave Lee the game ball last night to reward him. Starter or not, he will continue to see big minutes Wednesday, and Lee gets a much easier matchup than the Magic. He will be going against a Pelicans defense that has yielded the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards and ranks 28th in defensive efficiency. At a laughable price of $3,800 on DraftKings, Lee is a core play for both cash games and GPPs.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 18.3%, FanDuel 0.5%

Small Forward: Lonnie Walker

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

Due to the NBA’s health-and-safety protocols, the last four Spurs games were postponed, and Wednesday night will be the first time they have been in action in 10days. However, they will be very short-handed, with DeMar DeRozan away from the team for a personal matter, and all of Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Rudy Gay, Devin Vassell and Quinndary Weatherspoon currently in quarantine. After getting a practice in Monday, LaMarcus Aldridge will return, but it’s hard to imagine him getting big minutes in his first game back from a six-game absence, even with his team so depleted.

Walker will likely start at small forward and should be asked to play to huge minutes with a significant offensive role. Obviously, this is a rare situation and we don’t have much data to reference, but if just look at all the minutes Walker has played without DeRozan, White and Gay this season, he has seen his usage jump to 26.6%. This boost lifts Walker to 0.9 DraftKings points per minute. In the nine contests he has received a usage rate of at least 20% this season, Walker is contributing 24.7 DraftKings points per game. While tonight’s game environment against the Thunder isn’t the greatest (217 game total), Walker is a compelling option based off volume alone. Via Awesemo’s projections, he is the top point-per-dollar value of the night on DraftKings and the second best on FanDuel.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 56.6%, FanDuel 44.5%

Center: Jarrett Allen

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

Allen has been a double-double machine with Andre Drummond no longer playing for the Cavaliers. In these past five with the center inactive, Allen has notched a double-double in each start, resulting in 43 DraftKings points per game. His minutes have been up to a large 36.1 minutes per game across his last three, and Allen is generating 39 DraftKings when he has topped 30 minutes this season.

Now, enter in a gorgeous matchup with a decimated Houston frontcourt, and Allen is an elite play for Wednesday’s full slate. Christian Wood (ankle) will remain sidelined, and following the release of DeMarcus Cousins, the Rockets were forced to start P.J. Tucker at center for Tuesday’s meeting against the Bulls. Tucker struggled mightily, allowing Wendell Carter to post a season-best 45.75 DraftKings points. Allen is six inches taller than Tucker, and he should feast this evening. As of Wednesday afternoon, the center’s Vegas props slate him for a double-double of 18 points and 14 rebounds to go along with a pair of assists. Including the DraftKings bonus for a double-double, this is already 40 DraftKings points, not including defensive stats, which we all know Allen is good for a few. In his past two starts, Allen has swatted away an average of 3.5 shots per game. His salaries remain under $8,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and Allen’s ceiling is well over 50 fantasy points tonight.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 20.9%, FanDuel 26.5%

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