NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

There is a full 10-game slate to attack Friday night, and below are some of the best NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | April 2

Point Guard: Nickeil Alexander-Walker

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

Last night, with all of Zion Williamson (thumb), Brandon Ingram (toe) and Lonzo Ball (hip) inactive for New Orleans, Alexander-Walker torched the Magic for 49 DraftKings points. This fantasy score and his 32.8% usage rate were both team highs. Now, the Pelicans will be even more short-handed, with Josh Hart (thumb), who led the club in minutes last night, joining Williamson, Ingram and Ball on the sidelines for Friday night. Alexander-Walker has played minimal minutes without these four teammates, but in the 131 he has been on the court without Williamson, Ball and Ingram this year, he has provided a team-high 1.28 DraftKings points per minute.

The Pelicans used a tight eight-man rotation last night, and with the reliable Hart now absent, Alexander-Walker should see as many minutes as he can handle tonight against the Hawks — Awesemo projects him for almost 35. His salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel have barely moved since last night, and Alexander-Walker should be the first player in lineups for Friday’s full slate.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 10.2%, FanDuel 17.3%

Power Forward: James Johnson

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

Johnson started in place of Williamson in just his third game with the Pelicans on Thursday and scored 28.75 DraftKings across 28.2 minutes against the Magic. Now, with Hart also going down with a thumb injury, Johnson should absolutely remain a starter and be forced to handle over 30 minutes tonight against the Hawks. Though Johnson can never find a stable home in the NBA, he is a solid fantasy asset, contributing 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the last two years.

Furthermore, taking a deep dive into Johnson’s game log, he is amassing 24.6 DraftKings points per game in the last 30 he has logged over 20 minutes. DraftKings and FanDuel left Johnson at bare minimum salaries, and while he will be the mega chalk of the slate, according to the Awesemo NBA Ownership Projections, the value he brings is just too good to pass up on. Johnson has a legitimate chance of returning over 10x value, and instead of fading him, the best move is to eat the chalk and pick other spots in to be contrarian.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 35.8%, FanDuel 67.5%

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Center: Montrezl Harrell

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: B

Expecting to have Andre Drummond in the fold, DraftKings cut Harrell’s price down to $6,600 after he was all the way up to $7,400 just two games ago. Unfortunately for Drummond, the toe injury he suffered in his Lakers’ debut Wednesday is expected to keep him out for multiple games. Tonight the Lakers head to Sacramento to face the defensively inept Kings, creating an excellent time to attack Harrell while he is mispriced. Before Drummond’s first game with the team Wednesday, Harrell had topped 40 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, with two consecutive double-doubles. Friday night will mark the eighth time the Lakers have been without both LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (calf) this season, and Harrell is producing 36.7 DraftKings points per game with the superstars out of the lineup.

Included in this average is a season-high 45-DraftKings-point performance against the same Kings defense Harrell will be going against tonight. In addition to ranking dead last in defensive efficiency as a unit, Sacramento has yielded the most points in the paint per game this season. Harrell ranks sixth in the league in total points scored in the paint this year, and a large double-double is in the cards for him.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 14.3%, FanDuel 4.6%

Point Guard: Fred VanVleet

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A

Kyle Lowry (foot) will be out tonight, firmly placing VanVleet as one of the better expensive value plays on the slate. But Lowry isn’t the only factor that is boosting VanVleet’s projection. Both Norman Powell and Terence Davis were sent packing at the trade deadline, and VanVleet has garnered a team-high 30.3% usage rate when playing without those two and Lowry this year. This is a 5.9% differential from his usual usage for 2020-21, and VanVleet tallied 52 DraftKings points his first full start without those three players Wednesday night.

Desperate for a win, the Raptors will be going against the Warriors tonight, who will be without Stephen Curry (tailbone). Curry may not be known for his defense, but when he has been sidelined this season Golden State’s defense has struggled mightily, giving up 115.6 points per game. If this were their season rank, the Warriors would be the fourth-weakest defense in the NBA. VanVleet should absolutely exceed 5x value in this spot, particularly on FanDuel where his soft $7,400 salary has him rating as a top-10 value for this full slate, per Awesemo’s projections.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 24.4%, FanDuel 33.2%

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