NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Optimizer & Ownership Projections

There is a small four-game NBA fantasy slate tonight. With that, NBA DFS injury news will be a big part of tonight’s process. Be sure to check the Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page to see who is in, who is out and who is starting as news breaks, and look at the NBA DFS rankings and projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Jan. 6

*Grades are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel. Initial grade indicates a player’s strength of output, with the value grade indicating their strength as a play in relation to their salary.

PF Trey Lyles — Grades: B, B | Values: A, A

Playing on a back-to-back, the Pistons look to be a little bit more competitive than they were last night. They lost by 29 points, and no starter touched the floor in the fourth quarter. The Pistons were led by Trey Lyles, who finished with 17 points and seven rebounds. He had 27.25 DraftKings points despite only playing 27 minutes. Since entering the starting lineup, Lyles is averaging 18.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in three games. Isaiah Stewart may be back tonight, so monitor the starting lineup to make sure Lyles is in it.

The blowout risk in this matchup is pretty strong as the Pistons are 13-point road underdogs. The Grizzlies have a middle-of-the-road defense, but they are clicking right now. They have won six straight games and 16 of their last 20 games. If the Pistons can somehow keep this game competitive, Lyles will be a big reason. Using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, Lyles has the highest boom percentage on both sites tonight. He is also the most leverage play on FanDuel and second highest on DraftKings.

PG Chris Paul — Grades: B, B | Values: B, B

The price tag on Chris Paul continues to drop on both sites. Paul continues to lead the entire league in assists, with 10.1 per game. However, he has taken a backseat in the scoring department. Paul is averaging a career-low in both points per game (14.1) and field goal attempts per game (11.1). He still has had 40 or more DraftKings points in four out of his last six games. Paul is also averaging 32.2 minutes per game, which is the most he has played since the 2015-’16 season.

The decrease in salary is boosting Paul’s popularity. Using Awesemo’s ownership projections, Paul is the second-highest-owned player on both sites tonight. The Suns are tied with the Grizzlies for the highest implied total (115.75 points), while this game environment features the highest total on the slate (220.5 points). The Suns are 11-point favorites as Paul faces his former Clippers team. The cheap salary outweighs the blowout risk for Paul in this spot.

PF Marcus Morris Sr. — Grades: B, B | Values: A, C

Paul is the second-highest-owned player on DraftKings, and the highest is Marcus Morris. Morris is projected for nearly 50% ownership on DraftKings tonight, as the Clippers are decimated in their frontcourt. They will be playing without Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein in the frontcourt, but most importantly, Paul George remains out. In nine games without George this season, Morris is averaging 16.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and a 24.7% usage rate.

Morris has one of the biggest price differences between sites tonight. Using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, on DraftKings Morris has a relatively high boom percentage, while on FanDuel he has a much higher bust percentage due to his ridiculously high price tag. The Suns present one of the toughest matchups in the league, as they rank second in defensive rating and are only giving up 104.9 points per game. Morris will need to be aggressive to keep the Clippers within reach in this matchup.

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SG Jordan Poole — Grades: C, C | Values: D, D

With the spread dropping from Warriors -6.5 to Warriors -2.5, it seems as though Stephen Curry is going to miss this game. The grades and value are not updated for that news yet, as Curry is still listed as questionable to play at the time of this article. Apparently, Curry is “not optimistic” he will play tonight, which leads to a strategy of getting plenty of exposure to Jordan Poole. Poole has only played one game without Curry this season. In that game he had 32 points on 22 field goal attempts. He also had seven rebounds and a 32.2% usage rate.

This matchup against the Pelicans is projected to be close, which automatically makes it a good spot. And given the Pelicans defense, this is a great spot for Poole. The Pelicans rank 24th in defensive rating and allow opponents to shoot 37.5% from behind the arc, which is the second highest in the league. Poole made four 3-pointers in that game Curry missed and is averaging 2.6 made 3-pointers per game this season. Poole is basically the long-lost Splash Brother.

PG Ja Morant — Grades: A, A | Values: C, C

On a short slate like tonight, raw points matter even more. If Curry is out, the best spend-up option on the slate is Ja Morant. Awesemo projects Morant with the most fantasy points on both sites tonight. He has been on an absolute tear recently. Over his past five games, Morant is averaging 33.2 points and 53.8 DraftKings points per game. During that time he is also attempting 22.6 field goals per game and has a monstrous 35.5% usage rate.

Morant is proving himself to be an absolute star. Since entering the league, Morant has led the Grizzlies in points and assists in every season including this year. His team-high 32% usage rate also ranks sixth in the entire league. The Grizzlies are heavy favorites against the 7-29 Pistons, but this is a great matchup. The Pistons are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating and the top 10 in pace this season. With so much value on the slate, Morant is an easy pay-up option.

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