NBA DFS Picks Based Off of Optimal Lineup Percentage and Ownership Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel | 1/25

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 25

NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates 

Damian Lillard vs. Thunder: $10,300/$9,700

34.4% DraftKings Boom/50.3% FanDuel Boom

Lillard is the best player to pay up for on tonight’s slate. With C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic both out due to injuries, Lillard is tasked with carrying the Blazers offense. He typically carries the offense, but now his role is forced to expand even further. We saw this last night against the Knicks. Lillard played 35 minutes with a 32.7% usage rate and scored 60 fantasy points. This is about in line with what we can expect since Lillard has a 32.6% usage rate when McCollum is off the court this season.


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Bam Adebayo vs. Nets: $9,600/$8,500

38% DraftKings Boom/31% FanDuel Boom

The Nets are going to get crushed by opposing big men until they make additions to their roster. Since they traded Jarrett Allen as part of the trade to get James Harden, the Nets are sorely lacking in the frontcourt. DeAndre Jordan is holding down the center position by himself, and it isn’t going well. After getting crushed on he boards by the Cavaliers, Adebayo tore them up over the weekend and scored 41 points. When also factoring in that the Heat are shorthanded and are missing Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler, Adebayo is one of the top plays on the slate. He has an ideal matchup, and Miami is going to have to lean into him to play a bigger role.

Lauri Markkanen vs. Celtics: $6,500/$6,500

18.5% DraftKings Boom/23% FanDuel Boom

There is more playing time upside with Markkanen than most people realize. Wendell Carter remains out for the Bulls and is expected to miss at least a couple more games. Daniel Gafford is starting in his place, but it looks like Markkanen stands to gain the most from a value perspective. In Saturday’s loss to the Lakers, Markkanen played a season-high 36 minutes. This is a number that could have gone up. Chicago was down by 30 at halftime and wasn’t in the game in the second half. This meant that the Bulls’ starters weren’t needed to play their normal fourth quarter minutes. Markkanen could get a ton of run tonight.

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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Kevin Durant vs. Heat: $10,400/$10,400

66.3% DraftKings Bust/51% FanDuel Bust

Going forward, I have concerns about the fantasy output of the Nets’ big three. Between Durant, Kyrie Irving and Harden, I expect the fantasy production to take a dip for all of them. To this point Harden is taking the biggest hit, but Durant has a usage rate under 30% in back-to-back games. Prior to these games, he had a usage over 30% in seven of eight games. It looks like he is going to get fewer shots with everybody healthy, and his price is up.


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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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