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NBA DFS Picks Based Off of Optimal Lineup Percentage and Ownership Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel

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EMac gives his favorite NBA DFS picks for Yahoo + DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy basketball lineups, including Mike Conley | 4/19/21

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 12

NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates 

Domantas Sabonis vs. Warriors: $9,300/$9,200

46.7% DraftKings Boom/54% FanDuel Boom

I am assuming that Victor Oladipo will not play tonight. He’s currently listed as questionable and is yet to play in a back-to-back yet this season. The Pacers have continued to handle with caution since he returned from a devastating leg injury last season. With Oladipo off the court, Sabonis is seeing a 3% bump in usage and scores 48.68 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. Sabonis also finds himself in a great matchup. The Warriors rank bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and play at the second-fastest pace in the league.


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Dejounte Murray vs. Thunder: $7,500/$7,200

31.1% DraftKings Boom/41.1% FanDuel Boom

After bombing as a chalk play on Sunday, I am interested to see how many people will go back to the well with Murray. For now he projects as a popular play with around 30% ownership, but this is a step down from when he was owned as highly as 80% in GPPs on DraftKings a couple of days ago. DeMar DeRozan remains out for the Spurs, which should open up more playmaking duties for Murray. This season Murray has a 28.2% usage rating and scores 43.55 DraftKings points per 36 minutes without DeRozan on the court.

Trey Lyles vs. Thunder: $3,600/$3,300

27.9% DraftKings Boom/31.9% FanDuel Boom

For good reason the most popular value plays on tonight’s slate will come from the Heat on DraftKings. Miami barely has the minimum number of players needed to play an NBA game, and we will see cheap players get big minutes, as we saw with the 76ers last night. On FanDuel the Heat aren’t on the slate, and Lyles makes for a good pivot to these guys on DraftKings. Starting in place of DeRozan last game, Lyles ended up playing 35 minutes. This is a massive number of minutes for a guy close to minimum price who has also proven himself as a decent fantasy producer in the past. We need to look out for a starting lineup for San Antonio since Gregg Popovich is known to make changes, but for now I am assuming Lyles will start.

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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Mike Conley vs. Cavaliers: $7,100/$7,100

65.3% DraftKings Bust/56.8% FanDuel Bust

Conley is off to a great start this season, but his salary has reached it’s apex. This is the most we have had to pay for him all season, and I have concerns about his upside due to his playing time. Conley has gone five games in row without playing over 30 minutes. After he struggled with injuries last season, it looks like the Jazz are staying cautious with his workload. This is also a deceptively tough matchup against Cleveland. The Cavaliers rank first in the league in defensive efficiency and are proving tough to score fantasy points against this season.


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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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