In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 14
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates
Eric Gordon vs. Spurs: $5,200/$5,100
49.7% DraftKings Boom/49.9% FanDuel Boom
The Rockets are the main source of value tonight. Not only did the James Harden trade go down yesterday, John Wall is out due to knee soreness. After Wall missed the last two seasons with knee surgery and Achilles surgery, any injury is a major red flag. Playing time and usage are up for grabs in the Houston backcourt. Gordon is one of the players who stands to gain the most. The one issue to keep an eye on is that he’s currently listed as questionable. Despite the injury tag, I think Gordon is more likely to play than sit. He was dealing with the same injury for the Rockets’ last game and was able to play. Assuming Gordon is active, he is the Rockets’ top guard today.
Edit: The joys of NBA DFS. I published this article assuming Gordon would play and then left to get lunch. Only five minutes after leaving, I got the notification to my phone that Gordon would not play tonight. I am adding a Rockets value Boom play in his place.
Tyler Herro vs. 76ers: $7,300/$6,500
32.8% DraftKings Boom/53.3% FanDuel Boom
Dealing with COVID issues, the Heat remain extremely shorthanded for tonight’s game against the 76ers. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Avery Bradley, Goran Dragic, Maurice Harkless and Kendrick Nunn are all out due to health-and-safety protocols. As a result, most of the offense has to go through Herro. With all these guys out on Tuesday, Herro nearly carried Miami to a win. In an overtime against Philadelphia, he played 39 minutes and scored 34 points. Herro posted a 36.4% usage rating and is likely in line for a similar workload since all the same players remain out.
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Jae’Sean Tate vs. Spurs: $4,000/$3,300
22.3% DraftKings Boom/16.6% FanDuel Boom
Now with Gordon out, in addition to all the names mentioned above, we have found ourselves in a situation where there is nearly unlimited value on the Rockets. Tate becomes a strong play, along with the likes of Sterling Brown, David Nwaba and Ben McLemore. I will have exposure to all of these cheap plays, but Tate is the value play that I am prioritizing the most. The reason is because he’s already playing a sizable role in the Rockets’ rotation.
Tate is playing 23.7 minutes per game and averaging 16.97 DraftKings points. Since he already plays a sizable role, he is the cheap player from Houston who I have the most confidence in playing over 30 minutes tonight. In a game earlier in the season without Wall or Gordon, Tate played 37 minutes against the Blazers. It was an overtime game, but it’s notable he was ahead of the other viable cheap Rockets’ in the rotation on that day.
Christian Wood vs. Nets: $8,100/$7,700
52.8% DraftKings Boom/54.6% FanDuel Boom
Wood profiles as a good play for basically all the same reasons as Gordon. With Harden and Wall not in the lineup, Wood stands to get increased touches. As an added bonus, his salary recently came down due to some recent subpar performances. I think his recent box scores had more to due with the state of the Rockets than his individual play. The Rockets’ situation was untenable, and now that Harden is gone, the team should have more balance. Houston is not good but the fantasy production should improve going forward from a predictability standpoint. Wood is scoring over 50 DraftKings points per 36 minutes this season when Harden is off the court.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
Tyrese Maxey vs. Heat: $5,600/$5,600
86.7% DraftKings Bust/75.3% FanDuel Bust
Rostering Maxey over the last week was good times, but his run is over. After the 76ers were decimated by injuries and COVID, the team is back together for tonight. Ben Simmons returned to action last game, and now Philadelphia gets Tobias Harris and Shake Milton back in action. Maxey likely played well enough to carve out a role in the rotation for the rest of the season, but he’s not a primary option anymore. With these guys returning, Maxey likely will lose his starting role as his minutes and usage will decrease.
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