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NBA DFS Picks Based Off of Optimal Lineup Percentage and Ownership Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel




Our 1/21/21 NBA Yahoo picks cheat sheet for daily fantasy basketball lineups on Thursday, Jan. 21, including Jrue Holiday | NBA DFS

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 13

NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates 

Jarrett Allen vs. Knicks: $7,200/$6,700

32.4% DraftKings Boom/38.8% FanDuel Boom

Allen has the highest boom rating on FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. It is weird times in Brooklyn, with Kyrie Irving still with the team and a potential trade for James Harden brewing, but for now Allen is one of the most stable producers on the team. He is starting over DeAndre Jordan, who is rapidly losing minutes. Allen got over 30 minutes of run in three straight games, including 36 minutes last night. He is now cemented as the Nets’ starting center, and his playing time is on the rise.

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Willie Cauley-Stein vs. Hornets: $5,000/$4,100

31.8% DraftKings Boom/31.6% FanDuel Boom

The Mavericks are getting Kristaps Porzingis back to make his season debut, but the team is still shorthanded. Due to COVID issues, Maxi Kleber, Josh Richardson, Jalen Brunson, Dwight Powell and Dorian Finney-Smith are all out for tonight. When considering that Porzingis is on a minutes restriction coming off of knee surgery, Dallas is hurting in the frontcourt. Fan favorite Boban Marjanovic is a viable option and will likely play a handful of minutes, although I anticipate Cauley-Stein playing the bulk of the minutes. He has started in recent games for Dallas and produced about a fantasy point per minute.

Julius Randle vs. Nets: $9,100/$9,100

28.9% DraftKings Boom/33.9% FanDuel Boom

Randle rates as the top expensive option on FanDuel and DraftKings by the Boom/Bust tool. Largely due to the minutes that Tom Thibodeau plays his starters, Randle is one of the best fantasy producers in the league to this point. He’s playing a career-high 37.1 minutes per game and averaging 47.89 DraftKings points. We have also seen Randle play over 40 minutes in competitive games where he stays out of foul trouble. In the past I never could have imagined playing Randle at this kind of salary, but all the numbers indicate he’s a good play. On FanDuel he has a 35.4% chance of winding up in the optimal lineup.

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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Jrue Holiday vs. Pistons: $7,600/$6,900

56.2% DraftKings Bust/53.5% FanDuel Bust

Picking up close to 10% ownership tonight, Holiday is once again on the bust section of this article. He is becoming a staple for me to write up as a bust in recent Bucks games. Despite failing to score 40 fantasy points in seven straight games, Holiday is yet to see a price decrease. As a result, it’s hard to envision much upside at his current salary. Between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, Holiday doesn’t have the same usage available to him that he had in New Orleans. His production is suffering, and the pricing algorithms have not adjusted yet.

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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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