NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy

NBA DFS action on Saturday, Jan. 9, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a manageable seven-game main slate. Before you lock in your NBA DFS picks and favorite lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks, including Luka Doncic, Dejounte Murray and more.

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NBA DFS Picks: Key Building Blocks | Jan. 9

Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks vs. Orlando Magic

DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $11,600, Yahoo $53
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 21.5%, FanDuel 26.2% Yahoo 21.0%

Josh Richardson is in the COVID-19 protocol following a positive test, and Jalen Brunson along with Dorian Finney-Smith have been deemed as close contacts and will also miss this one. This is going to dramatically consolidate the production for the Mavericks tonight, with Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway and Trey Burke the most likely to benefit.

From a defensive efficiency, rebounding and pace perspective, Orlando is in the middle of the pack. Last night they were gobsmacked by the Rockets in Houston, losing by 42 points. None of their starters played more than 31 minutes, and there is a chance they get Aaron Gordon (hamstring) back tonight. On the season, Doncic is averaging 27.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.5 combined blocks/steals. While we will be paying top dollar, there are plenty of value options and we should easily be able to afford two luxury players.

Dejounte Murray: San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves

DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $7,100, Yahoo $29
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 24.7%, FanDuel 28.1% Yahoo 22.2%

This is a great matchup for the fourth year guard from the University of Washington. Finally healthy, and with Derrick White sidelined, we have seen a career high 31.3 minutes per game from the youngster. The Timberwolves are playing at a top-10 pace and have the second worst defensive efficiency in the NBA, allowing 114.6 points per 100 possessions. With the many value plays available on Saturday night, we are unlikely to see Murray’s popularity increase as more and more gamers look to roll out a very heavy stars and scrubs lineups.

In a scheduling twist, this is the the front end of a back-to-back, these teams will square off again tomorrow. As such, it would not be a surprise if the Spurs get enough of a lead that we see them rest LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan down the stretch. I would expect Murray to continue to play with the reserves in this hypothetical situation, which would increase his opportunities.

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NBA DFS Picks: Good Value

Dallas Mavericks vs. Orlando Magic

As covered in the Doncic analysis above, the Mavericks have a big hole in their rotation that they will need to fill tonight. The combination of Brunson, Finney-Smith and Richardson account for approximately 82 minutes, 35 points, 11 rebounds, six assists and 3.7 combined blocks/steals. We know that coach Rick Carlisle is not afraid to mix and match his players, so it will be important for us to get a handle on potential outcomes. Tim Hardaway and Maxi Kleber should be the most secure with regards to increased opportunities.

Willie Cauley-Stein has started the last two games and looked solid, averaging 25.0 minutes, 10.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 2.0 combined blocks/steals. Trey Burke is a bit of a wildcard, he was out on Thursday with a non-COVID-19 illness, but he should be back tonight. Most of his fantasy value comes from from a volatile source: scoring, though that is something which will surely be sorely in short supply for the Mavs tonight.

Dwight Powell was bumped to the bench with WCS starting the last two games, and I don’t really see him getting more than 20-24 minutes a game just one year after his Achilles injury. That leaves our two mercurial options that are likely to be more popular than warranted: Boban Marjanovic and James Johnson. Either of these players is capable of racking up the fantasy points in a short amount of time. They are also equally capable of killing our lineups with single digit fantasy points, depending on the whims of their coach. Tread lightly with this duo.

NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value and Strategy

Raulzinho Neto and Ish Smith: Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat

Smith: DraftKings $3,900, FanDuel $3,800, Yahoo $10
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 5.7%, FanDuel 6.0% Yahoo 1.2%

The one qualifier is that we need Russell Westbrook to sit out the second game of this back-to-back. Coach Scott Brooks has maintained that Westbrook will not play on consecutive days, but we are still waiting for that confirmation.

While we are likely to see Raulzinho Neto draw the start, Ish Smith is my preferred option. The last time Neto started in place of Westbrook, he essentially had career highs across the board in every meaningful category. That is more of a mirage for the Brazilian than what we should expect tonight. My hope is that Smith is coming off the bench, thus getting to see more of Miami’s reserve players.

There are better value options than Smith on Yahoo, however on DraftKings and FanDuel the veteran guard is a target for leverage. Because we do not yet have official news for Westbrook, Neto’s pOWN% is basically zero, though I would expect this to crest towards 20-25% if he draws the start.

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Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies

Gary Clark: ORL at DAL – $10
Willie Cauley-Stein: DAL vs. ORL – $10
Cole Anthony: ORL at DAL – $14

SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks

Keldon Johnson: SAS at MIN – 1.90x multiplier
Gordon Hayward: CHA vs. ATL – 1.35x multiplier
Dejounte Murray: SAS at MIN – 1.50x multiplier

Final Thoughts

There are plenty of value options tonight but the pricing does not align across every site. Be sure to understand your preferred site’s pricing and scoring systems.

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Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].