NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy

NBA DFS action on Thursday, Jan. 14, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with an intriguing five-game main slate. Before you lock in your NBA DFS picks and favorite lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks, including Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry and more.

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NBA DFS Picks: Key Building Blocks | Jan. 14

Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors

DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $11,200, Yahoo $52
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 24.7%, FanDuel 31.1% Yahoo 31.2%

This is a nice spot for Nikola Jokic. He is having by far his best fantasy season, albeit in just 11 games thus far. With Miles Plumlee and Jerami Grant now plying their trade in Detroit, we are seeing Jokic average 35.0 minutes per game, which is nearly 10% more than last season. Currently he is averaging a triple-double while leading the league with 10.5 assists per game. The 10.9 rebounds rank eighth, and his 24.3 points per game are 17th.

Denver is favored by 5 points, and with their 5-6 record, they need to start banking wins. Their next game is not until Sunday, so the sky is the limit for Jokic tonight, as we should have no concern about limited minutes. Keep in mind that on the shorter slate raw points become a larger factor. This is particularly true with the value provided by the Miami – Philadelphia game.

Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

DraftKings $9,700, FanDuel $9,600, Yahoo $46
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 16.5%, FanDuel 22.9% Yahoo 12.0%

A lot of gamers are going to be targeting Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent from Miami, and this is keeping some of the masses away from Stephen Curry tonight. The other thing likely to keep Curry’s popularity in check is that he has failed to top 35 fantasy points in three of his last four games. This is not for a lack of minutes or field goal attempts, rather it is because in those three subpar performances he was 5-for-24 for a weak 20.8% conversion rate. For his career Curry has nailed 43.3% of his shots from behind the arc. The 11.1 3-point attempts per game is barely half an attempt below his career high. There will be big games in store for Curry, so do not let the mini-slump dissuade you from being one of his backers tonight.

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NBA DFS Picks: Good Value

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

For at least tonight, the Heat will continue to play with a skeleton crew before some of their players are eligible to return from the COVID-19 reserve. The sites have at least continued to increase the price points for Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk, but they are by no means budget busters. Precious Achiuwa, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent are the best value options on the team across the board. If you are looking for some differentiation, albeit with excessive risk without the potential for returning much of a reward, Andre Iguodala, Chris Silva and Max Strus are your guys. Meyers Leonard is doubtful to play, so that is going to leave Miami with just eight healthy players once again.

Christian Wood: Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $8,100, Yahoo $34
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 41.5%, FanDuel 41.0% Yahoo 42.4%

On DraftKings and Yahoo, we have the utility position, which will enable us to roster two centers. FanDuel has Christian Wood classified as a power forward, so there are no constraints there either. San Antonio is league average when it comes to pace and they are in the bottom thirds when it comes to defensive efficiency. Even better for Wood, they are a bottom-three team with regards to rebounding rate. With no James Harden (trade) or John Wall, we should see Wood have the opportunity for 20-25 field goal attempts, and 25 and 10 is well within the realistic outcome range. DeMarcus Cousins is also worth considering as a flier since he should be a double-double candidate as well in this matchup.

NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value and Strategy

Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

DraftKings $10,000, FanDuel $10,200, Yahoo $50
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 20.1%, FanDuel 27.1% Yahoo 13.0%

On Tuesday Joel Embiid had one of the finest fantasy showings of his career in an overtime victory against this Heat squad. He played 39 minutes in that game, going 16-for-23 from the field, 13-for-13 from the line with 16 rebounds, four assists and six combined blocks/steals. So why is he a risky play? First, we want to consider that there are quite a few center options tonight in equally positive matchups at similar price points. Second, Embiid is dealing with a sore back but is expected to play. Third, there is a decent chance that both Ben Simmons (knee) and Tobias Harris (health and safety) will return, which would give the 76ers additional offensive options that they were lacking in just 48 hours ago. Finally, the 76ers are double-digit favorites against a short-handed Miami squad, and they play on the road Saturday in Memphis and Sunday in Oklahoma city. Coach Doc Rivers may not overuse his best players if the game is out of hand in the final frame.

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Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies

Gabe Vincent: MIA at PHI – $11
Justin Holiday: IND at POR – $12
David Nwaba: HOU at SAS: – $10

SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks

LaMelo Ball: CHA at TOR – 1.70x multiplier
Chris Boucher: TOR vs. CHA – 1.80x multiplier
Malcolm Brogdon: IND at POR – 1.40x multiplier

Final Thoughts

There are plenty of value options tonight, but the pricing does not align across every site. Be sure to understand your preferred site’s pricing and scoring systems.

Be sure to into the Awesemo NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock show beginning at 5:30 p.m. EST for all of your up-to-date information and analysis.

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Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].