NBA DFS action on Tuesday, Jan. 5, locks at 7:30 p.m. EST with a manageable five-game main slate. Before you lock in your NBA DFS picks and favorite lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks, including Kyrie Irving, Nikola Jokic and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Building Blocks | Jan. 5
Kyrie Irving: Brooklyn Nets vs. Utah Jazz
DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $9,700, Yahoo $45
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 29.7%, FanDuel 41.7% Yahoo 29.6%
Let’s not think on this one for too long. Kevin Durant was a close contact of a confirmed COVID-19 case, so he is in the seven-day testing protocol and will miss the next four games at a minimum. In 185 minutes with Durant, Kyrie Irving has averaged 1.36 FanDuel points per minute. In 15 minutes without his new running partner, he has averaged nearly 1.5 FanDuel points per minute. That is not particularly actionable information with the small sample size. However, a fair representation considering the tougher matchup with Utah would be his season average of 1.35 FanDuel points per minute. We will probably see him around 36-ish minutes, so that is the baseline we will be fading if we choose to go against the masses.
As the Nets continue contact tracing and other pandemic protocols, we could see more of them impacted. Welcome to the latest chaotic ingredient for NBA DFS, which provides ever-evolving information inputs.
Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
DraftKings $10,800, FanDuel $10,500, Yahoo $49
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 24.1%, FanDuel 33.8% Yahoo 40.2%
The nice thing about Nikola Jokic is his ability to contribute in all facets of the game. Through the first six games of the season, he has posted four triple-doubles. Even more wild is that he missed that milestone in the other two games, topping out with nine rebounds in both. On the season he is averaging 35.4 minutes with 22.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, 12.8 assists and 1.7 combined blocks/steals. While he is preferred on DraftKings, where we can play two centers and the double-double and triple-double bonus give him access to upside, on FanDuel his prodigious production and consistency outweigh his 5.3 turnovers per game. For reference, turnovers are -1.0 on FanDuel and 0.5 on DraftKings. Double-doubles are worth a 1.5 bonus on DraftKings with triple-doubles adding another 3.0, whereas FanDuel does not have these same milestones in their scoring format.
Also keep in mind that Michael Porter Jr. is out for two more games under the COVID-19 contact-tracing protocol. This leaves Jokic to carry the load alongside Jamal Murray.
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NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Caris LeVert: Brooklyn Nets vs. Utah Jazz
DraftKings $6,600, FanDuel $6,100, Yahoo $26
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 21.9%, FanDuel 27.9% Yahoo 23.8%
When he started back on Dec. 28, Caris LeVert had 60 fantasy points against Memphis. Now, while that is the upside, it by no means is indicative of what his fantasy production will be against the Jazz. In 108 minutes without Durant on the court, LeVert has posted nearly 1.50 fantasy points per minute. However, with Irving in 150 minutes, he drops to 0.84 fantasy points per minute. Similar to playing without Durant, in 113 minutes without Irving, LeVert has 1.40 fantasy points per minute. That leads us to two variables: 1) How many minutes will he get tonight without Irving; and 2) Will he be starting, which will strongly influence the shared court time.
Zach LaVine: Chicago Bulls at Portland Trailblazers
DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $8,100, Yahoo $38
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 21.6%, FanDuel 26.1% Yahoo 13.6%
With so many uncertain situations and unexpected news likely to provide a couple of discount dandies, let’s look at someone who could get lost in the shuffle. In the event LeBron James is out, gamers will be flocking to Anthony Davis and/or Montrezl Harrell. If Rodney Hood is out again, then Gary Trent Jr. becomes another key option that can facilitate a stars-and-scrubs build.
The point is that in situations like this, someone like Zach LaVine will likely be overlooked if salary cap frees up to get to luxury options like Damian Lillard at the same position. Also, it seems like there will be a groundswell for Donovan Mitchell going against Brooklyn that could keep gamers away from LaVine.
Looking at what we do know, Tomas Satoransky and Chandler Hutchison are out with COVID-19, and Lauri Markkanen and Ryan Arcidiacono are in the protocol until at least Jan. 12. This means LaVine should once again have access to as many minutes and field goal attempts as he can muster.
Excluding a blowout in Milwaukee where he played just 27.2 minutes, in LaVine’s other four most recent games he has seen heavy minutes. In these appearances he is averaging 36.7 minutes, 29.3 points, 2.8 3-pointers, 6.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 3.0 combined blocks/steals on 20.0 field goal attempts. This is a nice matchup for him against the Portland backcourt, and he will likely be under-represented in tournaments, even accounting for the five-game slate.
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot: Brooklyn Nets vs. Utah Jazz
DraftKings $3,700, FanDuel $5,100, Yahoo $10
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 23.8%, FanDuel 5.7% Yahoo 10.8%
If you had not realized, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has actually started the last four games for the Nets. The first game was against the Grizzlies, when he and LeVert got to step up with both Irving and Durant resting in the overtime game. In the other three starts, which included two games against Atlanta and one against Washington, Luwawu-Cabarrot still was in single-digit fantasy points for the two against the Hawks. This is just a reminder of his potential downside in a difficult matchup on a five-game slate where he is shaping up to be wildly popular.
In these 110 minutes as a starter, albeit with Durant and Irving playing alongside for 64 and 65 minutes, the fifth-year journeyman is averaging about 0.65 fantasy points per minute. This is right in line with his career-average fantasy production. He is perfectly fine in cash games for the block, but in tournaments it is going to be all about what we do with the extra salary cap and not his production, which likely will be void of much upside in this matchup. If you want a placeholder pivot, look to JaMychal Green, who may see some mop-up duty against Minnesota tonight.
 Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Derrick Jones Jr.: POR vs. CHI – $10
- Ed Davis:Â MIN at DEN – $10
- JaMychal Green:Â DEN vs. MIN $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Dejounte Murray:Â SAS at LAC – 1.50x multiplier
- Otto Porter Jr.: CHI at PORÂ – 1.55x multiplier
- Keldon Johnson: SAS at LACÂ – 1.90x multiplier
Final Thoughts
Once again, we will have plenty of value, so we can facilitate a stars-and-scrubs build. Just keep in mind that it is not necessarily going to be the same players across all of the sites.
Be sure to into the Awesemo NBA DeeperDive and Live Before Lock show beginning at 5:30 p.m. EST for all of your up-to-date information and analysis.
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