NBA DFS action on Wednesday, Jan. 27, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a mega 12-game main slate. Before you lock in your lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks, including Stephen Curry, Bradley Beal, Deandre Ayton and more.
Don’t forget to head over to the Awesemo NBA DFS HOME PAGE for more great written daily fantasy basketball content, including the FREE Deep Dive — the most in-depth article in the industry.
Awesemo’s Key NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Yahoo Play of the Day – Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 45.77 | DraftKings: 48.59
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 7.4% | FanDuel 18.0% | DraftKings 15.4%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $46 | FanDuel $9,300 | DraftKings $9,600
This is a favorable salary point for the matchup with the Timberwolves. Both of these teams are in the top five for pace. Minnesota is also carrying the fifth-worst defensive efficiency, allowing 110.5 points per 100 possessions. We saw Golden State cruise to a 130-108 victory against the Timberwolves on Monday night, and Stephen Curry played only four minutes in the final frame. He still tallied 36 points, four rebounds, three assists and three steals for a hefty 51.3 Yahoo fantasy points in 33:53 minutes. The Warriors are favored by nine points, but we know that Curry is going to have a hand in getting his team there, and he can pile up fantasy production quickly when his shot is on the mark.
Bradley Beal: Washington Wizards at New Orleans Pelicans
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 49.18 | DraftKings: 50.78
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 20.8% | FanDuel 20.3% | DraftKings 10.9%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $47| FanDuel $10,300 | DraftKings $10,200
Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, Troy Brown Jr., Ish Smith and Moritz Wagner will all be out tonight. Russell Westbrook is also likely to sit, as he has yet to play on consecutive nights. This will have Bradley Beal front and center for the Wizards as they head to New Orleans. The Pelicans are in the bottom third of the league with 100.9 possessions per 48 minutes. However, they have the sixth-worst defensive efficiency, allowing 110.3 points per 100 possessions.
Last night was a little disappointing, as Beal did not top 50 fantasy points against his former backcourt mate John Wall. However, he still did have a solid night and was the fifth-leading scorer on the slate. Currently Beal leads the league with 34.4 points per game and an otherworldly 37.7 percent usage rate. Tonight there are two dozen teams in action, and we will have plenty of value to facilitate working in our top-end preferred plays.
Deandre Ayton: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 40.58 | DraftKings: 41.72
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 37.4% | FanDuel 6.1% | DraftKings 21.9%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $28 | FanDuel $8,300 | DraftKings $7,300
This is an amazing deal on Yahoo for Deandre Ayton, who is coming in at just $28 in his matchup with the Thunder. In his last four games, he has topped 41.7 Yahoo fantasy points three times, and in this stretch he is averaging 36:28 minutes with 22.0 points, 14.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.3 combined blocks/steals. Devin Booker (hamstring) has been ruled out for a second straight game. Per NBA WOWY, when Booker is off the court, Ayton sees a 20% increase in his per-minute production.
Good Value
Cameron Johnson: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 29.24 | DraftKings: 30.93
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 76.8% | FanDuel 45.4% | DraftKings 43.1%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $11 | FanDuel $4,600 | DraftKings $4,800
Sticking with the Suns, it looks like Cameron Johnson is emerging as one of the better value plays on Wednesday. With both Booker and Dario Saric out, he should remain in the starting lineup for a fifth straight game. While he is not a flashy player, Johnson does contribute across all of the stat categories. In his last four games, he is averaging 29:25 minutes with 10.5 points, 3.25 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.5 combined blocks/steals. in this stretch he also has 2.0 made 3-pointers per appearance. Last game he had 16 field goal attempts, which was encouraging because that will be the key to unlocking his upside. In the other three outings, he had 8.3 attempts per game.
Zion Williamson: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Washington Wizards
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 40.68 | DraftKings: 41.70
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 6.6% | FanDuel 25.1% | DraftKings 16.2%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $37 | FanDuel $7,800 | DraftKings $7,800
The 2019 NBA Draft top selection has been a very steady fantasy presence this season. In his last eight games, he has scored less than 37 fantasy points only once. On the flipside he has not topped 50 fantasy points in this stretch. This is the main reason we are seeing him with a palatable salary. While he is averaging a very solid 23.4 points and 7.9 rebounds, he has just two steals in his last three games and only six blocked shots this season. Though he is competing with Steven Adams for rebounds, his 13.0 percent rebound rate is actually a little higher than it was last season.
Last year New Orleans was playing at the second-fastest pace in the league, while this year they are the seventh slowest with nearly seven fewer possessions per 48 minutes. Tonight the Pelicans on a back-to-back face a decimated Wizards team that has one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings and the fastest pace in the league. Washington is also in the bottom third of the NBA from a rebounding perspective. Tonight’s frontcourt will likely consist of Brook Lopez, Alex Len, Jordan Bell and Anthony Gill. The latter three have been with the Wizards for barely one week. Advantage goes to Williamson.
Risky Value
Mason Plumlee: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 28.87 | DraftKings: 28.43
Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 12.0% | FanDuel 24.7% | DraftKings 11.5%
DFS Salary: Yahoo $12 | FanDuel $4,400 | DraftKings $5,100
Blake Griffin (knee) will be out tonight, which means one fewer person competing with Mason Plumlee for rebounds. Unfortunately, tonight’s matchup is with Andre Drummond, who tends to be a foul magnet. Plumlee has fouled out in four of his last five games. He has the second-most fouls committed in the league and has 5.1 fouls per 36 minutes which is the highest in the league among anyone with at least 360 minutes played. Plumlee is picking up some traction, particularly on FanDuel, and this is a big risk on the site where we can roster only one center.
Using the Awesemo Boom vs. Bust tool that allows daily fantasy basketball players to see what a player’s likelihood is of appearing in the optimal NBA DFS lineup compared against their rostered percentage, Plumlee has a 12.6 percent chance of ending up in the optimal lineup but is getting a 24.7 rostered percentage on FanDuel. This gives him a -12.1 leverage score.
That score shows that he is projecting to be over-rostered on FanDuel. However, he also has a 14.6 percent chance of busting by coming in with less than 5x his FanDuel salary in fantasy points. The tantalizing upside is that he has a 45.2 percent chance of a boom performance of 5x + 10, or 32.0 FanDuel points. This is somewhat misleading with his low salary because on the season he has topped 32.5 FanDuel points in only five of his 17 games. Even then, only once in those five games did he have more than 35 FanDuel points. There are far too many better center options on FanDuel tonight; let the other gamers assume this risk.
 Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Cameron Johnson: OKC at PHX – $11
- Jeremy Lamb: IND at CHA – $15
- Jae Crowder: PHX at OKC – $14
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: OKC vs. PHX – 1.45x multiplier
- Zion Williamson: NOP vs. WAS – 1.45x multiplier
- Kemba Walker: BOS at SAS – 1.50x multiplier
Final Thoughts on the Wednesday, Jan. 27 NBA DFS Slate
There are two dozen teams taking the court tonight. We will have plenty of unexpected value options popping up as well as top-shelf players who end up in even better situations than they are at the time of this article being posted. Be sure to check out the NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows on the Awesemo YouTube channel beginning at 4:45 p.m. ET tonight.
