The NBA DFS Deep Dive for DraftKings & FanDuel | NBA Opening Night | 12/22 (FREE)

Welcome to a new NBA season! This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel and more.

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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 p.m. every week day and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

One other note is that for each position there is a “FanDuel-Specific Value” section. Players listed here aren’t necessarily “bad” plays on DraftKings, they just don’t stand out as anything more than a secondary or tertiary option, whereas on FanDuel they look much better either because their salary is drastically different or FanDuel’s rigid roster construction is forcing us to consider weaker value options than we need on DraftKings.

If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.

Update #1: After making some early DraftKings lineups, Nicolas Batum is more useful there than I expected. It’s a really gross play, but we are scraping for value on this slate and he should approach 30 minutes at a cheap price tag and weak position. He averaged 0.68 DraftKings points per minute in 504 minutes with Charlotte last season.

Update #2: James Wiseman is in fact starting for the Warriors tonight. To my knowledge, we still don’t have any information on expected playing time. I think the fact he is starting increases his minutes floor, but there is still a lot of volatility here since he is making his NBA debut after not playing a competitive basketball game in over a year.

The NBA Daily Fantasy Deep Dive for DraftKings & FanDuel | Dec. 22

NBA DFS Picks: Guard

Stephen Curry headlines the guard position on this slate as he takes on the Brooklyn Nets. Curry quickly got into the swing of things in the preseason, as he increased his playing time from 21 minutes in the first game to 29 minutes in Golden State’s third and final game. There appear to be no playing time concerns on Curry entering this season despite him missing most of last season with an injury.

Curry has averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute with a 40.4 percent usage rate and 30.9 percent assist rate in 503 minutes without any of Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson or DeMarcus Cousins on the floor since the start of the 2018 season. He has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in 918 minutes without either of Durant or Cousins (including time that Thompson was on the floor). Not only should we expect excellent per-minute production from Curry, but he is likely to average more minutes per game since Golden State isn’t going to be playing as many non-competitive games as they have in the past. Curry stands out as the top guard play on DraftKings at $9,300 and is even more favorably priced on FanDuel at $8,700.

Kyrie Irving also missed most of last season with an injury, but he played 28 minutes in Brooklyn’s preseason finale, so we shouldn’t be overly concerned about his playing time either. Irving has bigger question marks than Curry since we will have to wait and find out how he produces alongside Durant (and several other scoring options on Brooklyn). Still, our expectation should be that Irving is the No. 2 option in this offense. Irving averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with the Celtics who, while they didn’t have a Durant-level star, had enough capable scorers that it can serve as a decent proxy for what to expect this season until we get more recent data. In two preseason games, Irving had a 25.7 percent usage rate and 30 percent assist rate. Irving offers a bit of a discount from Curry on DraftKings at $8,500 but is more expensive on FanDuel at $9,000.

Paul George is shooting guard eligible across the industry to start the season. It actually makes roster construction a little bit easier tonight because the shooting guard position is relatively thin, while small forward has several strong options. George wasn’t good in the 2020 postseason, and that will probably linger in people’s minds as we enter this season. Still, George averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute last season, including the playoffs. Tonight’s game against the Lakers should be competitive, so I expect George to play at least 32 or 33 minutes, and he certainly has the potential for more.

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Andrew Wiggins is similar to George in that he has shooting guard eligibility, and that makes him more appealing on this slate than he otherwise would be. Wiggins has a low floor for his salary since he is a scoring-dependent player that doesn’t contribute much in the way of peripherals, but he should be counted on as the second or third scorer for Golden State this season. Wiggins averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute after joining the Warriors last season, and he averaged 1.09 points per minute with Minnesota prior to the trade. I expect similar production from him this season playing alongside Curry.

Lou Williams is tough to trust because there are so many mouths to feed on the Clippers, and he typically will need to be efficient with his production in order to pay off his salary in 25 or 26 minutes of action. He stands out as a value option on DraftKings in particular, however, because there isn’t much value at the guard positions. Most of the value that we do have is low upside, and you’ll be hoping that they get you 20 fantasy points and don’t sink your lineup. Williams is different since he always has the potential to put up a tournament winning score, even in limited playing time. He averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.3 percent usage rate last season. We aren’t going to find that type of upside from many value plays on this slate, so Williams is interesting even though he has a relatively low floor.

He’s a bit less appealing on FanDuel since he is a point guard and rostering him means that you have to give up one of Curry or Irving. He is still a fine tournament option, but I would be trying to get both of the studs in cash if I can.

Patrick Beverley fits into the category of low-upside, inexpensive players that I mentioned when discussing Williams. He isn’t someone that you’re going to feel good about rostering, but we also have limited options in his price range on this slate. Beverley started and played 18 minutes in the Clippers’ final preseason game, and I expect him to play 24-26 minutes tonight against the Lakers. Beverley averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute last season, which makes him a productive enough option to consider if you need a salary saver in order to get to the stars on this slate.

FanDuel Specific NBA DFS Value: Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,200), Dennis Schroder ($5,000), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,700)

NBA DFS Picks: Forward

LeBron James is clearly underpriced on DraftKings at $9,600, while he is a bit harder to get to on FanDuel at $11,000. It will be interesting to see if the Lakers’ short offseason has any negative consequences early in the season for James, but we should treat him as we normally would unless we see Los Angeles being cautious with his minutes or his production suffering. James averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate, 12.4 percent rebounding rate and 48.8 percent assist rate in 59 games with Anthony Davis active last season. James played about 25 minutes in the Lakers’ final preseason game, and I’m expecting at least 31-32 minutes tonight in the season opener unless we hear otherwise.

Anthony Davis is $400 more expensive than James on DraftKings and $400 less expensive on FanDuel. Of course, I like him more on FanDuel than DraftKings for that reason. Still, he is a strong play on either site as one of the most productive players on the slate. Davis averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage rate, 14.7 percent rebounding rate and 15.7 percent assist rate in 59 games alongside James last season. I think there is a chance that we will see fewer center minutes for Davis this season with the additions of Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell in the offseason, but he could still close at the five. Either way, it shouldn’t make a huge impact on how he is projected since most of his minutes last season weren’t coming at the five either.

Kevin Durant is yet another star on this slate who is coming back from injury. Durant wasn’t limited in the preseason after missing all of last season. He played about 28 minutes in Brooklyn’s final game and finished the preseason with a 29.1 percent usage rate and 15.2 percent assist rate in 51 minutes played. There are obviously questions around exactly how productive Durant will be on a per-minute basis with his new team, but I think using Durant’s 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with Golden State is a decent proxy assuming that he is truly healthy. For what it’s worth (not much), he averaged 1.17 points per minute over his 51 preseason minutes. Durant’s salary differs drastically by site as he is $200 more expensive than LeBron at $9,800 on DraftKings, while he is only $8,500 on FanDuel.

Kawhi Leonard isn’t coming off injury, but he always comes with question marks about his playing time anyway. I haven’t seen a quote from the Clippers about what to expect yet, so I’m guessing that we see Leonard get at least 32-33 minutes tonight. Leonard averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.4 percent usage rate, 10.8 percent rebounding rate and 24.0 percent assist rate in 37 games with Paul George active last season. Leonard is a strong play tonight, but I think he is more of a luxury than a necessity, as he is only $500 less expensive than LeBron on DraftKings and he is $1,000 more expensive than Durant on FanDuel.

Kelly Oubre isn’t overly appealing on this slate on his own merits, but he is worth mentioning because he is at a price point where there aren’t many other options. Oubre will be playing his first season with the Warriors, and he always offers a nice DFS ceiling because he’s capable of contributing in a variety of areas. His median projection is a bit underwhelming for his salary, however, since he is probably going to have his share of poor performances playing alongside high usage players in Curry and Wiggins. Oubre averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in 1,933 minutes with the Suns last season, and I expect similar production this season since he only had a 21.9 percent usage rate in Phoenix. I don’t expect to be actively targeting Oubre on this slate, but if I need a forward play at this price point to fill out my lineup, I have no problem slotting in Oubre.

Eric Paschall stands out as one of the best point-per-dollar values on the slate with Draymond Green sidelined for the Warriors. Paschall started both preseason games that he was active for, and he was relatively productive when he got playing time for Golden State last season. Paschall averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in 1,653 minutes last season. I expect his 21.4 percent usage rate to decrease as he plays alongside Curry, Wiggins and Oubre, but Paschall contributes enough in all categories that he should be able to remain a viable fantasy option whenever he is in line for extended minutes like he is tonight. He is an especially strong play on DraftKings at only $3,800.

FanDuel Specific NBA DFS Value: Joe Harris ($4,300), Nicolas Batum ($3,500)

NBA DFS Picks: Center

Montrezl Harrell being the first name mentioned at the center position should tell you that this slate is lacking the star power at center that it has at other positions. All four of the teams playing tonight have a center rotation that features at least two players that are likely to split minutes close to evenly. In these situations, the two factors that I’m most interested in are per-minute production and projected ownership (in GPPs). Since we are rolling the dice and hoping that the playing time breaks in our favor with any of these guys, it’s important to favor the ones who are likely to do the most if they get the playing time that we’re hoping for. Harrell certainly fits that category, as he averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with the Clippers last season. Now he faces his former team and will hopefully see around 24 minutes at an inexpensive price tag across the industry.

Serge Ibaka replaced Harrell on the Clippers, and, based on the preseason, I’m expecting him to be on the favorable side of the playing time split with Ivica Zubac — though there will certainly be plenty of games where that is not the case. Ibaka sat out of the Clippers’ final preseason game, but in the previous game he started and played about 16 first half minutes, while Zubac played about eight first half minutes off the bench. Ibaka finished the game with 20 minutes and Zubac finished with 18, but I think the first half is the important part since that is when the Clippers were running similar rotations to what we expect in the regular season. I don’t expect Ibaka to play 32 minutes to Zubac’s 16 tonight, but I do think a 26-to-22 split in Ibaka’s favor is a reasonable expectation. There was plenty of debate this offseason about whether or not Ibaka is still a good NBA player, but that is essentially useless as far as we are concerned. What we know is that Ibaka averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with Toronto last season, and he stands out as a strong value tonight against the Lakers. Note that he is a power forward on FanDuel, so his opportunity cost is a bit higher than it would be if he were a center.

James Wiseman is possibly the biggest question mark on the slate — which is saying a lot with how many stars are returning from injury. Wiseman left college basketball after three games and hasn’t played since. He missed the entire preseason with a non-injury issue. Steve Kerr has said that he will play tonight but hasn’t said whether or not he will start. If he comes off the bench, it’s really tough to expect more than 16-18 minutes from him. If he were to start, however, that would suggest that he may be in line for more playing time than we’re expecting. I’m only mentioning him as a reminder to pay attention to Golden State’s starting lineup. If Wiseman cracks the lineup, he becomes someone that we can consider in tournaments, where we can look to capitalize on the uncertainty lowering his ownership. I wouldn’t plan on using him in cash games unless we get word that he is starting and also that the plan is for him to play significant minutes.

FanDuel Specific NBA DFS Values: Marc Gasol ($3,800), DeAndre Jordan ($4,500), Jarrett Allen ($4,800)

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