NBA DFS Deep Dive for DraftKings and FanDuel | 1/16/21

The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 1/16/21

Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors (-7): 219.5

Charlotte Hornets

After he was a late scratch on Thursday because of a hip injury, Gordon Hayward is questionable today. His injury history is well known, so it stands to reason that the Hornets will approach Hayward with caution. On Thursday, he began the day listed as questionable, was upgraded to playing and then was ruled out. His status is news that we will likely have to monitor up until lock. Even if he plays, I find it tough to trust Hayward, given the likelihood that Charlotte limits his minutes.

With Hayward out last game, Charlotte surprisingly went with Caleb Martin in the starting lineup. He didn’t play a ton of minutes but he was reasonably effective and remains priced below $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If he makes another start, he’s a viable option at the price. I would have liked to see more minutes from Martin, but since this is a small slate, the price would put him in play.

Even though Martin started the last game, Miles Bridges played more minutes. Bridges got 29 minutes of run and there is a chance he could start over Martin if Hayward is out again. Bridges is a better per minute fantasy producer than Martin, and had some success last year, so I actually prefer Bridges regardless of who starts. We are going to need an update on Hayward and the Hornets’ starters to know who the best options are from this game. For now, I am assuming Hayward is active.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Devonte’ Graham

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devonte’ Graham, Miles Bridges

Toronto Raptors

Chris Boucher has to start eventually, right? The Raptors are struggling and it looks like giving Boucher more minutes is the easiest potential solution to their problems. Coming off the bench, Boucher is providing Toronto with a big boost. The team seems to be coming around to the idea of starting Boucher, he started the second half twice in the last week. Boucher is in play on both sites due to his strong point per minute production, but he’s preferable on DraftKings because of additional positional flexibility and the fact that he’s $1,200 cheaper. Boucher is averaging more than 40 DraftKings points in his last three games, but his price hasn’t gone up enough.

On DraftKings, I don’t like any Raptors much outside of Boucher. On FanDuel, though some of these guys are easier to get to. If Gordon Hayward is ruled out, the small forward options become very thin on FanDuel and we still have to roster two players at the position. This is what has me getting exposure to Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby in FanDuel NBA contests. Oddly, both of them are listed as small forwards.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Chris Boucher

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Chris Boucher, Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (-2): 215.5

Detroit Pistons

We have to throw out any kind of matchup numbers when looking at this game. On paper, the Heat have a good defense and playing them is typically a tough matchup, but almost all of their best players are out. As a result, I consider this is a positive matchup for the Pistons because they are going up against replacement level players.

From a projection standpoint, nobody looks great from Detroit because models view the game as a tough matchup. Due to this, I gave a slight manual boost to all the Pistons. The one player that comes out looking good is Blake Griffin. He’s cheap on both sites relative to what we normally think of Blake and he’s showing signs of having something left in the tank. Griffin isn’t the player he once was, although he is still effective and a better shooter than when he was younger. It is also nice to see the Pistons allowing Griffin to play extended minutes. In the last three games, he’s played 40, 32 and 33 minutes. The 40-minute game was due to overtime, but the bigger point here is that his injury history isn’t leading to limited minutes on a tanking team.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Blake Griffin

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Blake Griffin

Miami Heat

There is so much up in the air with the Heat that I don’t even know where to start my analysis. Almost half the roster is listed on the injury report for today. What we know is that Jimmy Butler, Meyers Leonard and Avery Bradley are out. It gets dicey when looking at the players who are listed as questionable. Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, Gabe Vincent, Kendrick Nunn and Moe Harkless are all on that list. The long injury report makes it a near certainty that the Heat will have value but more information is needed to know which players are viable. When we get an injury report update, I will fill in the players I am getting exposure to in my picks below.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: TBD

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: TBD

Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies (+1): 220

Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid is out today is expected to miss at least a couple of games as he deals with a minor knee injury. In addition, Seth Curry remains out because of COVID-19, and Mike Scott is out due to a knee injury of his own. Without Embiid and Scott, there is a ton of value in the frontcourt. Dwight Howard should start at center and play as many minutes as he can handle. In my initial builds, Dwight is my most rostered player on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Without Embiid on the court, there is a ton of usage to distribute to the rest of the 76ers’ lineup. With him off the court, no player is benefitting this season more than Shake Milton. Milton is seeing a 5.6% bump in usage without the All-Star big on the court. Even though we are early in the season, we are still looking at a 149 minutes sample size for Milton playing without Embiid. He’s coming off a big game and early projections don’t have him picking up much ownership.

I try to make an effort to not list everybody, but in the interest of transparency, my initial builds have my lineups loaded with 76ers’ players. Without Embiid, there is an increased reliance we can expect on Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Both are chalky plays for good reasons and popping up in close to half of my lineups. Tyrese Maxey started last game, which I assume will happen again. His price dipped a bit from last time out, making him a good value option. I will get more exposure to the 76ers than any other team on this slate.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Dwight Howard, Shake Milton, Tyrese Maxey

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Dwight Howard, Shake Milton, Tyrese Maxey, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris

Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant is listed as questionable after missing the last eight games. I have him playing for now, but I am giving Morant a couple less minutes than normal. We haven’t seen him play in a few weeks, so it would be reasonable to expect his conditioning to be in question. If he plays, it kills the value on everyone else on Memphis. Morant is expensive enough that I don’t want to roster him, and he will take usage and playing time away from everybody else in the Grizzlies’ starting lineup.

If Morant is out, we still have a bit of value on Memphis. The players I will look to roster in this situation are Jonas Valanciunas and Brandon Clarke. Clarke struggled as a starter last year but he has succeeded better in the role this season. He didn’t start until after Morant got injured so it’s unclear if Clarke will continue to stick in the starting lineup alongside Morant. His production suffered playing with the star point guard last season so it benefits Clarke to play his minutes without Morant.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None

Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers (-4): 234

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are a mess right now. It appears there are some issues with chemistry in the locker room after a story came out a couple weeks ago about how John Collins wasn’t pleased with how Trae Young closes out games down the stretch. Since this report came out, Atlanta has lost five of six games and Young is in the midst of his worst stretch of basketball since his rookie season. Here is the good news, Young’s price is plummeting for DFS. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, his salary is under $9,000. We haven’t seen him consistently around that number since the start of last season. I am going to bet on the upside and historical performance from Young. His salary is too cheap and he’s going to figure out how to right the ship. Trae is my favorite option to pay up for today.

Depth is an issue for the Hawks on the wing. This looked like a strength for Atlanta heading into the season, but Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danillo Gallinari are both injured. This has me getting to Cam Reddish as a value play on FanDuel and DraftKings. He stands to gain the most playing time until the Hawks get healthy again. Reddish is now starting for Atlanta and, even though his playing time isn’t up in the last couple of games, that was a result of blowouts.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young, Cam Reddish

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young, Cam Reddish, John Collins

Portland Trail Blazers

I slightly prefer Trae Young as my favorite point guard, but Damian Lillard isn’t far behind. Since I also mentioned Simmons, it’s worth noting that my three most rostered point guards as of now, in order, are Young, Dame and then Simmons. As great has Young is on offense, his defensive struggles are well known. He has finished near the bottom of the league in Defensive Real Plus-Minus in each of his first two seasons in the league. This matchup should setup Lillard for success.

In the Blazers last game, Jusuf Nurkic broke his wrist. After undergoing surgery, he is expect to miss about eight weeks. While this saves me from the roller coaster of rostering Nurk, now we have Enes Kanter to consider. Kanter is going to have to play significant minutes for the Blazers going forward. On defense, this is an issue for the Blazers. For us, it should work out well for fantasy purposes. Kanter is a good per minute fantasy producer and can rack up points and rebounds in a hurry. Howard is a higher priority play for me on this slate but Kanter is also worth getting exposure to.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter

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Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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