🏀 NBA DFS Deep Dive for DraftKings and FanDuel | 1/30/21

The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 1/30/21

Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls (-2): 233

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers as underdogs against the Bulls speaks to the state of this team. As we know by now, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are out and Damian Lillard is tasked with carrying the offense. There isn’t much to add here that everybody else hasn’t already written over the last few games, Dame is a great play. His usage and playing time is up due to the injuries Portland is dealing with and he’s a top target on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

As if the original injuries weren’t enough, Portland is dealing with more banged up players. Robert Covington missed last game with a concussion and it listed as questionable to play tonight. This opens up the potential for massive value in the frontcourt because Derrick Jones Jr. is out after injuring his foot on Thursday. The starting lineup will dictate the best value plays here. Carmelo Anthony or Robert Covington figure to play a sizable role. I will get Covington exposure if he’s in and Melo exposure if not. The injuries should firm up the roles for Gary Trent Jr. and Enes Kanter as well. Trent is a bit too expensive for me on DraftKings but I like his FanDuel price.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter 

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter, Gary Trent Jr. 

Chicago Bulls

This is a good game to target. The total is set at 233, the highest mark on the slate, and the game has a tight spread. We are expecting a high-paced competitive contest. This is what lands me on Zach LaVine in a decent amount of early build lineups. I am currently overweight to the field on LaVine and he makes for a strong correlation play with Damian Lillard. If this game has as much scoring as the total suggests, it stands to reason both LaVine and Lillard play well. Both these teams have thin rosters and rely on their stars to carry them in terms of playing time and usage. LaVine has a usage rate around 30% in each of the last four seasons.

Wendell Carter Jr. has missed the last few games with a quad injury and now it looks like his absence is going to extend for a while, with reports saying he isn’t going to return until March. Lauri Markkanen is quietly benefitting from Carter’s absence. The last couple games don’t totally bare it out because they were blowouts, but his playing time was trending up. He played 31 and 36 minutes in those games without even seeing the court down the stretch. In a close game, we could see Markkanen play massive minutes in a favorable matchup tonight.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen

Milwuakee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets (+8): 230.5

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are off to a somewhat disappointing start this season. This is obviously still a great team but they are only marginally over .500 and are kind of sleep-walking through the regular season. It’s like the playoff Bucks from last year showed up to play in the regular season. Hopefully this means last year’s regular season Bucks will show up in this seasons playoffs.

As always Giannis Antetokounmpo is a viable option although he’s not a primary play for me tonight. He will end up in a small percentage of lineups for me, although I view Luka Doncic and Dame as better options to pay up for. I always have some worries about the playing time on the tail end of a back-to-back, Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer usually does what he can to limit minutes of his core players. So far, Giannis has either rested or played limited in minutes in one half of back-to-back situations. While this doesn’t make him a fade, it means I will only go with The Greek Freak in 10% of lineups or so.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Charlotte Hornets

There is still value on Cody Zeller. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, it looks like the Hornets intend to play him big minutes. In his first game coming back from his hand injury, Zeller played 30 minutes. Last night, he played slightly less minutes but it was due to foul trouble. Zeller finished with a total of 26 minutes after the foul woes limited the big man to eight minutes in the first half. I expect 30 or more minutes from Zeller if this game is close and he keeps his hands to himself.

In the backcourt, I wish we could see LaMelo Ball start. He is proving himself as a great point per minute fantasy producer. This is nice, but the minutes aren’t always there and there is no real rhyme or reason as to when they go up or down. In the last five games, Melo played 17, 28, 21, 22 and 30 minutes. This makes him very tough to trust in cash games while also having upside that can’t get ignored in GPPs. The Hornets should have to submit his playing time for the night alongside the injury report so we know what to expect from him.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Cody Zeller, LaMelo Ball

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Cody Zeller, LaMelo Ball

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans (+1): 223

Houston Rockets

Wall is yet to have a big fantasy game since coming back from his knee injury but I think we are close. He came back with a minutes restriction and logged 30 minutes last game. This was after playing 21 and 24 minutes in his first couple of appearances since coming off the shelf. At this rate, I don’t expect to see a restriction on Wall tonight, and his ownership is low. This is possibly the last chance to snag Wall at low price and depressed popularity. His salary should go up along with the production over the next couple of weeks. Wall’s minutes restriction coming off should negatively impact other players on the roster, however, as his high usage rate will mean less touches for Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo as Wall gets unleashed.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: John Wall

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Wall

New Orleans Pelicans

There are a couple of site-specific plays that stand out on the Pelicans. On DraftKings, Zion Williamson is oddly getting a huge price discount. He is $7,400 which doesn’t make much sense. This is his lowest price of the season and it isn’t as if he’s struggling lately. Williamson has at least 39 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 games. Unless he is going to face some crazy minutes restriction because this is the tail end of a back-to-back, he is one of the best plays on DraftKings. His $8,400 price tag on FanDuel is much more realistic and in-line with the norm.

On FanDuel, the play I am looking at here is Steven Adams. He is priced down to $5,000 and his playing time is up in recent games. Adams played 38 minutes last night and he is finding ways to rack up fantasy points without scoring. Adams is coming up huge for the Pelicans on the glass lately, recording a season-high 20 rebounds last night. This was the fourth time in the last six games that Adams pulled down at least 15 rebounds. I expect he will have to play big minutes again to matchup against the likes of Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Steven Adams

Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat (-5): 225

Sacramento Kings

The player I am looking to roster on this side is Tyrese Haliburton. With Marvin Bagley struggling, it looks like the Kings are playing more small lineups, with Haliburton benefitting the most. His playing time waned for a bit but the minutes are coming back over the last few games. Haliburton played a season-high 33 last night and has now topped 30 minutes in three consecutive games. I had reservations about projecting him to play 30 minutes last night because he played under 25 minutes in three straight games before this stretch but the reality is that Haliburton is already the second best player on the Kings behind De’Aaron Fox. He has earned his playing time and shouldn’t go anywhere.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Tyrese Haliburton

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Tyrese Haliburton

Miami Heat

There is not nearly enough information here to know what to do with the Heat. Playing against the Kings is always a favorable matchup, they are at the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency but we don’t know who is going to be on the court for the Heat. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Andre Iguodala and Avery Bradley are all listed as questionable. Depending who plays, there is value since Goran Dragic is sitting out another game with a groin injury. Kendrick Nunn stands to gain the most if all these guys are out but he is a fade if they are all in. I am wary of rostering Butler if he returns since he has reportedly lost a lot of weight while dealing with COVID-19.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics (+2): 218.5

Los Angeles Lakers

As usual, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable. I make nothing of the LeBron injury designation since he hasn’t missed a game but the AD injury matters this time. I think he is more likely to play than sit, but he missed the Lakers’ last game and we can’t rule out additional rest. This is why I consider this a legitimate injury as opposed to all the other times we see Davis on the injury report. LeBron is playing great lately, but this has also come with a price uptick. LeBron needs Davis to sit in order to end up as a play for me. In that event, Kyle Kuzma would start and also become viable. I am comfortable fading the Lakers if Davis ends up playing.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are finally healthy again. None of their players are in the COVID-19 protocols and Kemba Walker is starting to see his minutes ramp back up after offseason knee surgery. While this is great for the Celtics as a team, it isn’t great for their DFS value. Nobody stands out as a strong play as they all cut into each other’s usage in a tough matchup against the Lakers. As if that wasn’t enough, this game also has one of the lowest totals on the slate.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-3): 221

Memphis Grizzlies

I was looking at NBA standings yesterday and was surprised to see the Grizzlies in the playoff picture. This isn’t to say that I think the team is bad but I kind of forgot about them. Due to health and safety protocols, this is the Grizzlies’ first game in two weeks. After the time off, I am not sure what to expect from players here. They could ease up on workloads because of the rest, as players get back into game shape. Most of the team is back at this point, with the notable exception of Jonas Valanciunas, and also Grayson Allen. Xavier Tillman was starting in place of Valanciunas the last time we saw Memphis and he will be a good value as long as this remains the case. I will take a wait and see approach with the rest of the team because there isn’t any precedence for a team taking two weeks off in the middle of a season.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Xavier Tillman

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Xavier Tillman

San Antonio Spurs

For unkonwn reasons, the DraftKings pricing algorithm appears to have a vendetta against Dejounte Murray. The Spurs point guard was priced over $7,000 and then averaged 40 DraftKings points over the course of three games as the price started to drop. His salary is at least $1,000 too cheap, and he’s priced at $7,000 on FanDuel. I am jumping on this Murray price on DraftKings. I have him projected for nearly 40 fantasy points and the Grizzlies defense might struggle after the long layoff. Murray is the best individual play, but I will mix in other Spurs with the potential for the long layoff to have a major impact on Memphis.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Dejounte Murray, DeMar DeRozan, Keldon Johnson

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks (-1): 215.5

Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker is set to miss at least one more game. This once again makes Chris Paul one of the top plays on the slate. The veteran star point guard is tasked with carrying the Suns’ offense and it has made a big difference on his usage in recent games. Three of his four highest usage games this season have come in the last three games without Booker. It is clear that Paul is needed to step up for Phoenix right now. Deandre Ayton isn’t seeing quite the same uptick in usage, although he is still worth rostering based on his ridiculous recent rebounding rates. He’s pulled down at least 13 rebounds in six consecutive games.

On FanDuel, Cameron Johnson is one of the top small forward plays. His price has adjusted for Booker’s absence on DraftKings but not on FanDuel. In fairness, Johnson is not lighting the world on fire since the Booker injury. His numbers are actually a bit confusing. He sees a usage jump of about 3.0% for the season with Booker off the court, but his usage hasn’t changed in the recent games without Booker. I still buy into the larger sample size and think we should start to see more shots go to Johnson until Booker returns.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Cameron Johnson

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The season is off to a bad start but it’s not hard to understand why. Half the team has missed time due to COVID-19 and Kristaps Porzingis missed the first part of the season as he recovered from knee surgery. I am not totally sure if Porzingis will play or not, since this is the tail end of a back-to-back. At the very least, uncertainty with his playing time if active will prevent me from rostering him. Porzingis is struggling as of late and rested the last time the Mavs played in games on consecutive games. Luka Doncic is the only player worth rostering from Dallas of of now but he’s a low priority play for me.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luke Doncic

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luke Doncic

Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors (-4): 223.5

Detroit Pistons

There is a give and take with Jerami Grant. He is the Pistons’ only good fantasy producer this season but his production has tailed off in recent games. Regression seemed likely and I am not sure what his actual talent level is. To this point in the season, Grant had played so much better than he ever did in the past, it is difficult to tell if there were real improvements made. I don’t know whether to expect his production from the start of the season or the last few games. The good news is that his recent struggles have brought his price point under $8,000 on both sites for the first time in a while. I am going to get some exposure to him for the price dip although he’s a slightly more favorable play on FanDuel due to positional scarcity.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant

Golden State Warriors

This doesn’t feel great but it doesn’t look like I will get to much, if any, of Stephen Curry on this slate. I would rather pay more for Lillard or Doncic than roster Steph and he’s not popping up in my initial lineup builds. The only player from Golden State that I am getting to at all is a light amount of exposure to Draymond Green on FanDuel. The power forward’s price has dipped to below $5,000. I still think there is some optimism for a turnaround for Green although it says a lot about his current play that I am not viewing him as a top play at such a cheap salary.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Draymond Green 

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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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