Game 3 of the NBA Finals was one in which Steph Curry laid it all on the line to single-handedly will his team to victory only to fall short (despite a stellar NBA DFS showing) as the Warriors were deeply affected on both sides of the ball by Klay Thompson’s injury that sidelined him for the matchup. Now Klay is available for Game 4 with Golden State’s backs against the wall versus a Toronto Raptors squad who look primed to seize a 3-1 series lead with the Warriors starting a hobbled Klay and still without Kevin Durant and Kevon Looney.
Despite the many reasons to believe Toronto should continue to see success in Game 4, Vegas currently projects the Warriors as a five point favorite at home in a game with a 216.5 point combined total. With an abysmal showing for a variety of players on Golden State’s side, there are a lot of considerations to make when building NBA DFS Lineups for the single-game Showdown slates industrywide. Will Klay Thompson’s injury be healed enough to help him drive the Warriors to a series evening win? Or will Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry and the gang continue to assert themselves in the NBA championship picture as well as NBA DFS lineups? I’ll break down everything I saw watching the game as well as reviewing all the data and relevant factors for the NBA Finals DFS tournaments on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
You can also use the promo code SWITCHANDHEDGE for half off the first month of any of our new Awesemo+ memberships that include premium data and tools across a variety of sports and you can also check out our NBA projections and NBA DFS Finals Showdown ownership projections for FREE the second they go live. But now let’s get onto the NBA fantasy ramifications of everything and my breakdown here in our NBA DFS Finals Primer for Game 4 between the Toronto Raptors and the Golden State Warriors.
NBA Finals Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State WarriorsÂ
Toronto Raptors: 105.8 implied points, -8.7 on season average
-Game 3 was unquestionably the Kyle Lowry Game. After a disappointing effort in his first two he was a must have with 46.5 FP on 8-for-16 shooting including 5-for-9 from deep. He also contributed nine assists and saw a variety of defenders, including a particularly abused Draymond Green, who were unable to keep him in check. Lowry should find it a bit tougher with Klay Thompson in there for Game 4 but with Klay still hobbled, he may not materially help things out as much as he would normally. I would still be okay with Lowry as a regular roster spot or Captain and if about half the field is on him that seems about right as an ownership cap.
-At this point I would just play Kawhi Leonard as a regular roster spot or Captain for the rest of the NBA Finals. He continues to see high 30s-low 40s minutes and with his ownership likely to be high there may be some faint tournament logic in fading him. But I would think he gets to where he need to in a way that is in line with his 52.6 FP average this series given a steady diet of usage and a Warriors squad who is clearly impeded defensively. A pivot off of Kawhi in a lineup build would likely mean big days from the peripheral players so if you wanted to take a few stabs at getting away from him, I’d load up on other Raptors.
–Pascal Siakam was just on the outside of winning DFS basketball lineups for Game 3 with 37.25 FP with 18 points, nine boards, and six assists. He should remain in consideration given his price and the fact that he has yet to see under 16 shot attempts in a game this series but his price does make it hard to get a high priced Captain in there.
–Marc Gasol was also just outside winning lineups in Game 3 and though he was very productive with 31.25 FP, his 26 minutes are a series low. A second half group with Serge Ibaka as the big was the one who helped the Raptors build a big lead but also the one who helped them nearly blow it, which led to Gasol picking up the last four minutes of the game. I would think Gasol would benefit some from the success of DeMarcus Cousins with his size a bit more necessary in that matchup but with Cousins wilting last game and looking severely impeded defensively, it may be a time to have a bit less Gasol despite the value his price presents. Ibaka could be useful again with his 28.75 FP a necessity in a tournament winning lineup in Game 3.
–Danny Green got hot from deep with 6-for-10 shooting en route to a 32.25 FP day that could have been better had he not gotten in some sort of foul trouble. Green particularly abused Steph Curry defense with 3-for-5 shooting from deep with Curry on him. Green’s price is up which makes him slightly less appealing but he should see minutes and an overall weakened defense once again with Klay back out there hobbled.
–Fred VanVleet still saw 33 minutes but didn’t do quite as much with it with 25.25 FP. He was still a fine play but he likely needs one of Green or Lowry to be less effective for him to meaningfully exceed value. I have no issue with VanVleet again but he’s a pure tournament play who could be an interesting pivot if the Green and Lowry ownership rise.
–Norman Powell did nothing in six minutes of court time, not even a shot attempt, but he’s still on the cusp of playability with no one likely to be on him but his potential also largely contingent upon the failure of others, particularly Danny Green.
Golden State Warriors:Â 110.8 implied points, -7 on season average
–Kevin Durant is out again for Game 4 but Klay Thompson is expected back in the lineup. Klay would strike me as not the best play given his price being up slightly and what we know of hamstring injuries. His ownership is likely to be low and if he were close to healthy that could be a spot that has some theoretical value. But there are too many guys at that price range who are full strength and seem more likely to create the spacing and lift needed for success. With most of Klay’s success in the series coming in the form of activity and running around screens, it’s hard to imagine him being peak effective with a hamstring injury that likely would have knocked a player out for a much longer period of time.
–Stephen Curry almost single-handedly took all the usage that Durant and Klay’s absences left behind in Game 3 with a 38% usage rate on 14-for-31 shooting including 6-for-14 from deep. It seemed like he could be completely collapsed upon in that Game 3 spot with Klay out and less shooters to space the floor but instead Toronto clamped down elsewhere while letting Stephen Curry hoot to his heart’s content. His usage should trickle slightly downward with Klay back in even if he is significantly less than full strength but it seems like Steph should retain most of the opportunity in a way worth continued exposure as both a regular roster spot and Captain, even if he seems unlikely to reach his 73 FP highs in Game 4.
–Draymond Green was disappointing in the last game with 34.75 FP on 6-for-14 shooting with less rebounding and playmaking than he’s had for most of the playoffs. Klay’s return should open things up for him a bit more and that, combined with his down Game 3, make me interested in going back to him in some lineups and even as a Captain. Draymond wasn’t able to push the pace as effectively as he has been since Durant went out as part of a concerted defensive effort by Toronto but I’d think there are adjustments that can be made to get him into better positions to rebound, run, and make plays.
–DeMarcus Cousins was a huge bust in Game 3 with 11.25 FP on 1-for-7 shooting in 19 minutes, down from his big 37 FP on 3-for-8 shooting in Game 2. Cousins looked extra slow, particularly in lateral defense, and was seemingly a liability at times on both sides of the court. He may be able to bounce back in Game 4 with some extra spacing around with Klay in but it would take a far more concerted effort to get him the ball and play off of him in the post than they showed last time out. I don’t mind exposure to Cousins but it’s obviously not nearly the lock many treated him as with seemingly all the opportunity in the world in Game 3.
–Andre Iguodala was the other Warrior besides Curry in the optimal NBA DFS Showdown lineups and he continues to be reasonably priced enough to have exposure if the price works. Iguodala didn’t pick up any usage as a result of Klay’s absence with the same eight attempts in Games 2 and 3 so his role should only be aided by having Klay back out there.
–Andrew Bogut had an effective 22 minutes with 22.75 FP highlighted by six points, seven boards, and three assists. Bogut was on the Warriors’ best plus-minus group in Game 3 and while he’s no lock to get big minutes he is a viable pivot as a big man in lineups that assume more failure for Cousins.
–Quinn Cook should return to lower opportunity bench role after his 27 minutes in Game 3 yielded just 14.25 FP. Cook is fine as a cheap guy if the price works but he’s not someone to want a lot of given how little he capitalized with Klay actually off the floor and the Warriors desperately in need of additional scoring.
–Shaun Livingston is on the edge of use with his ownership likely down after a middling effort starting for Klay in Game 3. I’d slightly favor him over Cook on a projection basis but Cook has a higher ceiling with him actually able to shoot and make threes.
–Alfonzo McKinnie, Jonas Jerebko and Jordan Bell round out the barely playable Warriors; I’d favor Bell again with a fairly productive 8.5 FP in nine minutes of action and McKinnie likely to lose minutes back to Klay after 18 minutes in the last game. But Jerebko’s six shot attempts (of which he only hit one) and 10.5 FP in 10 minutes are a bit interesting given how hard up the Warriors seemed for offense last time out.
—
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys soon for some thoughts on Game 5! Good luck!
