Welcome back, everyone. For Wednesday night we finally get back to a full slate with 10 games on tap, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.
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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Jan. 20
Point Guard: Ja Morant
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: B, Values: C
In just his second contest back from an ankle injury that cost him eight games, Morant appeared to be at full strength, scoring 41.75 DraftKings points in Monday’s win over the Suns. The 34 minutes he logged were extremely encouraging, and the matchup against an elite perimeter defender in Chris Paul wasn’t easy at all. Tonight Morant will be in a much friendlier spot against the Blazers, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and ninth in pace this season. Damian Lillard (below) is one of the top offensive players in the NBA, but defense is not his strong suit. This Portland team is currently giving up the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards.
This tilt’s total currently sits at 223 points, and Morant is averaging 45.6 DraftKings points per game in three career matchups with Lillard. Prior to missing all those games with the ankle issue, we had seen the 21-year-old’s salary get all the way up to $8,800 on DraftKings, showing you how mispriced he is right now on that specific site. There is a good chance we will not see Morant this cheap again this season on DraftKings, and we must take full advantage of the discount tonight in this prime matchup.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 18.0% FanDuel 9.7%
Center: Xavier Tillman
DraftKings Grades: C, Values: A
FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A
With Jonas Valanciunas (health protocols) out, Tillman received the first start of his career on Monday, and in a season-high 29 minutes the rookie recorded 25 DraftKings points against the Suns. The 22-year-old has now received at least 28 minutes in back-to-back games and is clearly ahead of center Gorgui Dieng in this Grizzlies’ rotation, with the veteran only seeing 14.5 minutes per game over this time.
Eight games into his NBA career, Tillman has produced 0.96 DraftKings points per minute. He should be in the 25-30-minute range tonight against the defensively inept Blazers, who are starting Enes Kanter at center in place of the injured Jusuf Nurkic (wrist). Kanter is regarded as one of the worst defenders in all of basketball, and Tillman shouldn’t have any problems destroying his cheap price tags in this spot. At only $3,500 on DraftKings, Tillman is a cash-game staple for this 10-game slate, particularly when we factor in that he can utilized as either a power forward or center.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 52.3% FanDuel 10.2%
Point Guard: Damian Lillard
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
On the other side of the ball, Lillard should also have a very productive night in this date between the Blazers and Grizzlies. The injury bug has already caught up to Portland, with CJ McCollum (foot) and Nurkic both expected to miss at least a month. These two players rank second and third in usage for the Blazers this season after Lillard, and with them both sidelined Monday, the 30-year-old collected 50.75 DraftKings points against the Spurs behind a season-high 40.3% usage rate.
Including this contest, Lillard is now generating 62 DraftKings points per game in the five full contests these two starters have missed collectively the past two seasons. While it is certainly possible, we can’t expect a usage rate above 40% again for Lillard tonight, but we can safely project the guard to crack 30% considering the situation. In all the minutes he has been on the floor with McCollum and Nurkic off the last two years, Lillard has posted a 33.8% usage rate. He is also supplying 55.6 DraftKings points per game in the past 10 that he has garnered a usage rate of 30% or higher. Similar to Lillard, Morant is no defensive specialist himself, and I will be starting most of my lineups with the pair of guards on Wednesday.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 16.0% FanDuel 31.1%
Center: Clint Capela
DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: B, Values: B
Capela is one of my favorite GPP targets of this full slate. After back-to-back strong performances, his price has reached a point on both DraftKings and FanDuel that should make most DFS players uncomfortable. Based on Awesemo’s projections, Capela is expected to carry very low ownerships on both sites, and he is in arguably the best possible matchup for a center against the Pistons. No defense in the NBA has allowed more DraftKings points per game to centers than Detroit this season, and Capela is fresh off two consecutive outings of 54.75 DraftKings points.
His playing time has been at 37.8 minutes per game, and his usage has increased to 23.2% during these two starts after only receiving 27.4 minutes and a usage rate of 16% across his previous five. The extra responsibilities should continue for Capela tonight, with Danilo Gallinari (ankle) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) already ruled out for Atlanta and Cam Reddish (knee) questionable. The Hawks didn’t play last night nor will they play tomorrow, which means barring foul trouble Capela should handle right around 35-40 minutes in this competitive environment (Atlanta -5). In his last five with a minimum of 35 minutes, Capela is providing 54 DraftKings points per game.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 5.4%, FanDuel 4.3%
Slate Update:
Unfortunately, due to the NBA’s COVID-19 contact tracing policies, the Grizzlies vs Blazers’ game has been postponed. Clearly, this changes the entire landscape of the slate with a good chunk of the best plays eliminated from consideration. With this news, Capela will gain more attention and is now cash viable. As for studs to pivot to off Lillard and Morant, Nikola Vucevic, Steph Curry and Domantas Sabonis are all in great situations and viable at their price tags. Specifically with Sabonis, he has topped 50 DraftKings points in two straight and he is going against a weak Dallas frontcourt that is giving up the 6th most DraftKings PPG to opposing centers. Plus, he could see a further boost to his stock if Myles Turner (questionable, hand) is out. When Turner, T.J. Warren (out, foot) and Victor Oladipo (traded to HOU) have been off the court this year, Sabonis is averaging 1.35 DraftKings PPM. Another value that could emerge if Turner was to sit would be Doug McDermott. With Turner missing Sunday, the sharpshooter started at power forward for Indiana and record 28.3 DraftKings points in 32.3 minutes against the Clippers.
A few other cheaper NBA daily fantasy values to consider are Kelly Oubre Jr., Draymond Green, Cameron Johnson and Eric Gordon. The Spurs vs Warriors’ matchup sports the second highest over/under game total of the night at 229 points and both Oubre Jr. and Green have been playing very well as of late. As for the latter two, Cameron Johnson is just too cheap for the 22.5 DraftKings PPG he is averaging over his last five, and Gordon is also rating as a great value as the Rockets’ starting two guard with John Wall (knee) out and James Harden now in Brooklyn. In his first action since the Harden deal, Gordon scored 30.5 DraftKings points in a season-high 34 minutes vs the Bulls on Monday with Wall sidelined.
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